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Get My Free Estimate →The Bank of Canada’s Financial Stability Report of 28 May 2026 puts the average increase at about 15 per cent for the last of the five-year fixed-payment pandemic mortgages, which are about 12 per cent of all outstanding Canadian mortgages. The other 14 per cent renewing over the same period — variable-payment and shorter-term fixed — will on average see no change. The 20 per cent figure still circulating comes from a July 2025 Bank of Canada note and has been superseded. Your own increase depends almost entirely on the gap between your old rate and your new one: on a $500,000 mortgage the range runs from about +7 per cent to +39 per cent.
If you took a five-year fixed mortgage in 2021, your renewal is now or very soon, and the number you have been quoted in the press is probably wrong for you in both directions. The Bank of Canada’s average is real, but an average across a wide distribution tells you very little about your own payment. This page gives you the grid instead.
What the Bank of Canada actually says
From the Bank of Canada’s Financial Stability Report—2026, published 28 May 2026: the last of the five-year, fixed-payment mortgages taken out during the pandemic are renewing, they represent about 12 per cent of all outstanding mortgages in Canada, and “on average, these borrowers will see their payments increase by about 15%”.
The same report says something less widely quoted. The other renewals over the same period — variable-payment mortgages and shorter-term fixed mortgages taken out after rates rose in 2022 and 2023, about 14 per cent of outstanding mortgages — “on average, will not see their payments change at renewal.”
A figure to stop using: 20 per cent. That came from Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note 2025-21 in July 2025, which put the 2026 five-year fixed increase at about 20 per cent. The May 2026 Financial Stability Report revised it to about 15 per cent. Both are Bank of Canada publications; the later one supersedes the earlier one on this figure. A lot of coverage is still running the July 2025 number.
One more line from the Bank worth holding onto: more than 90 per cent of borrowers who renewed in the past 12 months did so at rates below their qualifying rates. The stress test, for all the complaining about it, did the job it was designed to do.
Your number, not the average
The grid below is a $500,000 mortgage on a 25-year amortization, five years in, renewing for the remaining 20 years. Read down for the rate you originally had and across for the rate you are being offered.
| Original rate | Payment then | Renew at 3.5% | at 4.0% | at 4.5% | at 5.0% | at 5.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.75% | $2,059 | $2,417 +17.4% |
$2,525 +22.6% |
$2,636 +28.0% |
$2,750 +33.6% |
$2,866 +39.2% |
| 2.25% | $2,181 | $2,442 +12.0% |
$2,552 +17.0% |
$2,664 +22.2% |
$2,779 +27.5% |
$2,897 +32.8% |
| 2.75% | $2,307 | $2,467 +7.0% |
$2,578 +11.8% |
$2,691 +16.7% |
$2,808 +21.7% |
$2,926 +26.9% |
These are illustrations, not rate quotes. The rates across the top are round numbers chosen to bracket a plausible range, not offers, not forecasts and not advice. The arithmetic is standard amortization maths on a $500,000 opening balance. Scale it: on a $250,000 mortgage halve the dollars, the percentages are unchanged. Your actual renewal depends on your balance, your remaining amortization and the rate you are actually offered.
Notice what the grid shows that the average hides. Half a percentage point on the original rate moves the increase by five points. Half a point on the renewal rate moves it by five points again. Someone who took 1.75 per cent and renews at 5.5 per cent is looking at nearly 40 per cent. Someone who took 2.75 per cent and renews at 3.5 per cent is looking at 7. The 15 per cent average is the middle of that, and almost nobody is at the middle.
How much of the distribution is ugly
The earlier Bank of Canada analysis, still useful for the distribution even though its headline figure has been superseded, found that among variable-rate, fixed-payment borrowers renewing in 2026, 10 per cent will see an increase of more than 40 per cent, while a quarter will see a decrease of at least 7 per cent. Variable-rate, variable-payment holders were projected to see an average payment decline of around 5 to 7 per cent.
That is what an average of 15 per cent is made of: a long tail of large increases and a substantial group whose payment goes down.
What is happening to people who cannot absorb it
The honest version, with the numbers stated properly, because this is where most coverage either catastrophises or minimises.
| Measure | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto CMA 90-plus-day mortgage delinquency rate | Rose from 0.20% to 0.29% year over year — a 45 per cent relative increase, or nine basis points | CMHC, Spring 2026 |
| Ontario | Rose from 0.20% to 0.27% | CMHC, Spring 2026 |
| National 90-plus-day rate | 0.24% in Q4 2025, up from 0.21% a year earlier | CMHC, Spring 2026 |
| Residential mortgage debt | Crossed $2.4 trillion in December 2025, up 4.8 per cent year over year | CMHC, Spring 2026 |
Read that Toronto figure carefully, because it is widely misused. A rise from 0.20 per cent to 0.29 per cent is a 45 per cent increase in the rate. It is not a 45 per cent increase in the number of people in arrears, and 0.29 per cent means fewer than three mortgages in a thousand. The direction is real and it is worth watching. The level is still low. Both things are true and anyone telling you only one of them is making a point rather than informing you.
The Bank of Canada’s own framing in the May 2026 report: “Mortgage arrears remain low overall, with the share of mortgage accounts more than 60 days behind on payments only slightly above the 2018–19 average.”
Three things worth doing before your renewal date
Start four to six months out. Under the Canadian Mortgage Charter, federally regulated lenders are expected to communicate proactively about renewal options four to six months in advance. If yours has not, that is the moment to call them rather than wait for the letter.
Know that you can leave. Since November and December 2024, a borrower doing a straight switch at renewal is not required to be re-tested at the minimum qualifying rate — for insured, uninsured and low-ratio mortgages, under separate rules. The details and their limits are on a separate page, and the limits matter.
Run the number before the letter arrives. Not to make a decision, but so that the decision is not made under time pressure in the last two weeks. If the number does not work, there is a separate page on what the options actually are, and the earlier that conversation happens the more of them are still open.
Renewal coming up and thinking about your options?
I am not a mortgage broker and I will not pretend to be one — but if the renewal is making you think about whether to stay, downsize or sell, that part is squarely my job. Send me your situation and I will give you a straight read on what your property is worth and what your realistic options are, with no pressure to list.
connect@jatindua.com · 437-987-1925 · Book a free consultation
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Frequently asked questions
How much will my mortgage payment go up at renewal in 2026?
The Bank of Canada’s May 2026 estimate is about 15 per cent on average for the five-year fixed pandemic cohort, but the average hides a very wide range. On a $500,000 mortgage renewing after five years, the increase runs from roughly 7 per cent for someone who had 2.75 per cent and renews at 3.5 per cent, to nearly 40 per cent for someone who had 1.75 per cent and renews at 5.5 per cent.
Is the 20 per cent figure I keep reading correct?
It is out of date. It comes from Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note 2025-21, published July 2025. The Bank’s own Financial Stability Report of 28 May 2026 revised the figure to about 15 per cent. Both are Bank of Canada publications and the later one supersedes the earlier.
Will everyone renewing in 2026 see an increase?
No. The Bank of Canada says the roughly 14 per cent of outstanding mortgages that are variable-payment or shorter-term fixed mortgages taken out after rates rose will, on average, see no change at renewal. Some variable-payment borrowers will see a decrease.
Are mortgage delinquencies rising in Toronto?
Yes, but from a very low base. CMHC reports the Toronto 90-plus-day delinquency rate rose from 0.20 per cent to 0.29 per cent year over year. That is a 45 per cent relative increase in the rate — nine basis points — not a 45 per cent increase in the number of delinquent mortgages. The national rate was 0.24 per cent in Q4 2025.
Did the stress test work?
On the Bank of Canada’s own evidence, largely yes. It reports that more than 90 per cent of borrowers who renewed in the past 12 months did so at rates below the rate they had been qualified at.
When should I start dealing with my renewal?
Four to six months before the date. Under the Canadian Mortgage Charter, federally regulated lenders are expected to communicate renewal options proactively in that window. Starting early is also what keeps the option of moving lenders genuinely open.
Related reading
- Switching lenders at renewal: where the stress test applies and where it does not
- When the renewal maths does not work: what the options are
- Rent versus buy in Etobicoke: the arithmetic
Sources
Every figure on this page traces to one of these, and each was read on 30 August 2026. Primary sources only — statute, regulation, and the government or agency that administers the rule. Where I could not verify something from a primary source, the page says so instead of guessing.
- Financial Stability Report 2026 — Households. Bank of Canada, 28 May 2026. The remaining five-year fixed-payment pandemic cohort, about 12 per cent of outstanding mortgages, will see payments rise about 15 per cent on average. Accessed 30 August 2026.
- Staff Analytical Note 2025-21 — How will mortgage payments change at renewal?. Bank of Canada, July 2025. The earlier analysis, which put the five-year fixed 2026 renewal increase at about 20 per cent. Superseded on that figure by the May 2026 Financial Stability Report. Accessed 30 August 2026.
- Residential Mortgage Industry Report. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Spring 2026 edition. National 90-plus-day delinquency rate 0.24 per cent in Q4 2025. Accessed 30 August 2026.
- Renewal wave peaks but still dominates the mortgage market. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 12 May 2026. Toronto 90-plus-day delinquency rate rose from 0.20 per cent to 0.29 per cent year over year. Accessed 30 August 2026.
- Canadian Mortgage Charter. Financial Consumer Agency of Canada. Sets out the Charter’s commitments and confirms it states expectations rather than binding law. Accessed 30 August 2026.
- Minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages. Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. The greater of the contract rate plus two percentage points, or 5.25 per cent. Accessed 30 August 2026.
About the author — Jatin Dua, Etobicoke real estate agent
I’m the Broker of Record at RE/MAX Quantum Realty, 799 The Queensway in Etobicoke. I write these pages the same way I work a file: read the primary source, quote it, date it, and say plainly where the source is silent or where two sources disagree. If a figure on this page has no citation beside it, that is a mistake and I want to hear about it.
I work with buyers, sellers, renters and investors across Etobicoke, Mimico, Humber Bay Shores, New Toronto, Long Branch, Alderwood and Stonegate–Queensway. connect@jatindua.com or 437-987-1925.