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Get My Free Estimate →Scope correction, 31 August 2026. The launch and cancellation figures on this page are GTHA figures — Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area — not GTA. Urbanation reports them for the wider region, and the “first time in at least 30 years” comparison attaches to Q1 2026 specifically rather than to the two-quarter run. The table rows have been relabelled. Source: Urbanation, 20 July 2026.
Between January and June 2026 the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area recorded zero new condominium project launches in two consecutive quarters — and for Q1 2026 specifically, Urbanation reports that is the first time in at least thirty years. New condo apartment sales in the GTA ran at 237 units in July 2026, roughly 80 per cent below the ten-year average, while completed-but-unsold developer inventory reached a record 5,001 units. Total remaining new home inventory stands at 18,546 units, of which 12,345 are condominium apartments. Every figure on this page carries its own period and source.
Across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, no new condominium project launched in either Q1 or Q2 of 2026 — two consecutive quarters at zero. Urbanation reports that Q1 2026 was the first quarter in at least thirty years with no launches at all. New condo apartment sales in July 2026 ran at 237 units, about 80% below the ten-year average.
Meanwhile completed-but-unsold developer inventory hit a record 5,001 units. This is what a
new-construction market looks like when it stops. Below is every number a pre-construction buyer
needs this autumn, each with its source and its date.
1. New construction has effectively paused
| Measure | Figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| New condo apartment sales, GTA | 237 units, +40% YoY but 80% below the 10-year average | July 2026 | Altus Group / BILD |
| New project launches, GTHA | Zero — second consecutive quarter. Urbanation reports the “first time in at least 30 years” comparison for Q1 specifically, not for the two-quarter run | Q1 & Q2 2026 | Urbanation |
| Launches, prior year | 10 projects / 1,425 units | Full-year 2025 | Urbanation |
| Construction starts | 3,272 units — down 63% from 8,854, a multi-decade low | Full-year 2025 | Urbanation |
| Cancellations, GTHA | 1,022 units (Q2); 11,653 units cancelled since the start of 2024. Note this is a Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area figure, not GTA | Q2 2026 | Urbanation, 20 July 2026 |
| Full-year new condo sales | 1,599 units — down 60%, the lowest since 1991 | 2025 | Urbanation |
What it means for you. Two things, and they pull in opposite directions. In the
short term, there is very little new product coming to market, and what exists is being sold with
unusually aggressive incentives. In the medium term — three to five years out — the supply pipeline
behind today’s completions is close to empty, which is the classic setup for the next shortage. If you
are buying to live in and you can hold, this is a buyer’s window. If you are buying to flip on
assignment in 2028, you are betting against a lot of standing inventory.
2. Inventory is at a record, and it’s finished
| Total remaining new home inventory (GTA) | 18,546 units — of which 12,345 are condominium apartments (July 2026, BILD/Altus) |
|---|---|
| Unsold pre-construction and under-construction (GTHA) | 48,710 units — down 37% year over year and 62% from the 2022 peak of about 127,000 (Q2 2026, Urbanation) |
| Completed and unsold, developer-held | 5,001 units — a record high, up 68% year over year (Q2 2026, Urbanation) |
| Completions | 29,291 units in 2025, about 50% above the ten-year average; 7,201 in Q1 2026 with a further 14,649 forecast for the rest of 2026 (Urbanation) |
A note on “months of supply,” because it is the most abused statistic in this market. Three
different published figures exist — 36.5 months, 7.3 months and 92 months — and they use three
different denominators. They are not comparable and should never be blended. If
someone quotes you a months-of-supply figure without naming the basket it’s measured against, they
are quoting a number they don’t understand.
3. What resale condos actually cost right now
These are the MLS® Home Price Index benchmarks — the mix-adjusted measure, and the number I’d anchor
any pre-construction price against. All figures July 2026, from the TRREB Market Watch published
6 August 2026.
| Area | Apartment benchmark | Year over year |
|---|---|---|
| All TRREB areas | $535,200 | −7.35% |
| City of Toronto | $551,900 | −7.09% |
| Mississauga | $500,200 | −7.27% |
| Oakville | $562,800 | −7.40% |
| Peel Region | $486,100 | −8.39% |
| Halton Region | $533,000 | −6.05% |
| York Region | $518,400 | −9.20% |
| Brampton | $398,500 | −16.44% |
Etobicoke and Toronto West, district by district
| District | Apartment benchmark | Year over year |
|---|---|---|
| W01 (Swansea, High Park, Roncesvalles) | $545,600 | −8.07% |
| W02 (Junction, Bloor West) | $600,200 | −7.29% |
| W03 (Weston, Rockcliffe) | $515,200 | −5.58% |
| W04 (Brookhaven, Maple Leaf) | $502,400 | −7.63% |
| W05 (Humber Summit, Jane-Finch) | $480,000 | −7.83% |
| W06 (Mimico, New Toronto, Long Branch) | $583,500 | −5.60% |
| W07 (Stonegate-Queensway) | $519,500 | −8.62% |
| W08 (Islington, Kingsway, Eatonville) | $520,400 | −7.73% |
| W09 (Kingsview, Willowridge) | $493,500 | +3.14% |
| W10 (Rexdale, Thistletown) | $437,100 | −9.19% |
W09’s positive print is on a thin sample — don’t build a strategy on it. Toronto West condo
apartments averaged $616,629 across 199 sales in July, against 531 new listings and 1,090 active
listings. Mississauga: 124 sales, $511,649 average, 888 active listings. Oakville: 44 sales, $636,627
average, and 50 days on market — the slowest number on this page.
The comparison that matters
New condo apartments in the GTA are benchmarking at $1,054,938, up 2.5% year over year
(July 2026, Altus/BILD) while resale is down 7.35%. Do not read that as new condos rising.
With only 237 sales in the month, the index is dominated by whatever happened to transact. Urbanation’s
mix-controlled per-square-foot measure tells the real story: $1,186 per square foot in Q2 2026,
down 2% annually. New product is drifting down like everything else — the headline benchmark
is a composition artifact.
4. The investor math, honestly
| Measure | Figure | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto 1-bedroom condo rent | $2,292 (−4.1% YoY) | Q1 2026, TRREB |
| Toronto 2-bedroom condo rent | $3,091 (−3.2% YoY) | Q1 2026, TRREB |
| Mississauga 1-bed / 2-bed | $2,136 / $2,636 | Q1 2026, TRREB |
| Oakville 1-bed / 2-bed | $2,143 / $2,706 | Q1 2026, TRREB |
| GTHA condo apartment rent | $3.74/sq ft — $2,545 on a 681 sq ft average, −1.3% YoY | Q2 2026, Urbanation |
| Rent incentives | ~$377/month, 13% off face rents; 64% of projects offering them | Q2 2026, Urbanation |
| Vacancy, stabilised buildings | 6.8%, up from 5.5% a year earlier | Q2 2026, Urbanation |
| Leveraged new-condo investors cash-flow negative | 81%, averaging −$597/month on 2023 completions | H1 2024, CIBC/Urbanation |
That 81% figure is the most-quoted statistic in this market and it deserves a caveat: it is
from the first half of 2024 and CIBC and Urbanation have not republished it since. Rents have
fallen further and vacancy has risen since, so it is unlikely to have improved. I’d treat it as a
floor, not a snapshot.
The practical version: on a $700,000 suite with 20% down at current posted rates, against a $2,292
one-bedroom rent in a market with 6.8% vacancy and $377/month of incentives being handed out, the carry
does not work. That’s not pessimism — it’s arithmetic. Buy pre-construction to live in.
5. The money rules a pre-construction buyer needs to know
The First-Time Home Buyers’ GST rebate — up to $50,000
The single biggest incentive in this market, and it applies only to new construction. Full rebate on
homes valued up to $1,000,000, phasing linearly to nothing at $1,500,000
— so a $1.25M home gets roughly $25,000. Your agreement must be signed on or after 27 May
2025 and before 2031; construction must begin before 2031 and be substantially complete before
2036.
The eligibility test is stricter than people assume: you must be 18 or over, a Canadian citizen or
permanent resident, and neither you nor your spouse may have owned or lived in a home you
owned — anywhere in the world — in the current calendar year or the four preceding
ones. Once per lifetime, and unavailable if a spouse has already claimed it.
Land transfer tax
Ontario LTT applies province-wide. The first-time buyer refund is up to $4,000,
meaning no LTT on the first $368,000. In Toronto you also pay municipal LTT, with its own first-time
buyer rebate of up to $4,475 — $8,475 combined. Note the tests
differ: the LTT rebates require you to have never owned a home anywhere, ever, while the GST
rebate looks back four calendar years. It is entirely possible to qualify for one and not the other.
Toronto’s MLTT also gained new higher brackets above $3 million effective 1 April 2026.
In Mississauga and Oakville there is no municipal LTT, so the maximum is $4,000.
Development charges — and the deadlines on the relief
Toronto’s base development charge is $80,690 per two-plus-bedroom apartment and
$52,676 per one-bedroom or bachelor. The city’s Development Charges Reduction Program, which started
30 March 2026, cuts that by 60% for two-plus-bedroom apartments and
40% for studios and one-bedrooms — taking a 2+ bedroom unit from $80,690 to $32,276. Eligibility runs
on first building permits issued from 30 March 2026 to roughly August 2029.
Mississauga’s total per apartment unit is $100,062.43 (or $56,174.75 for units at or
under 700 sq ft), rates effective 1 August 2026 and re-indexed 1 February 2027. A 50%
reduction applies to all residential unit types — but the building permit for footings and
foundations must be pulled before 31 December 2027.
Why you care: development charges are what a builder passes into your price, and what a
“development charge cap” clause in your agreement protects you from. Ask whether your project’s
permits fall inside these windows.
Cooling-off periods
Condominiums: ten days, in force. Section 73 of the Condominium Act gives you a
ten-day rescission right running from the later of receiving a fully signed agreement and receiving
the disclosure statement. Rescission returns your deposit with interest.
Freehold: enacted but not yet in force. The Homeowner Protection Act, 2024 amended
the New Home Construction Licensing Act to create a freehold cooling-off period, but it takes effect
only on proclamation and as of 30 August 2026 no in-force date has been confirmed by any
government source. Various sites quote 2027; I could not verify that. Today, a freehold new
home buyer in Ontario has no statutory cooling-off period at all. Check with the HCRA before relying
on one.
Tarion deposit protection — the gap nobody mentions
Tarion protects a condominium deposit up to $20,000. On a
20% deposit against a $700,000 suite, that’s $140,000 of your money with $20,000 of Tarion coverage.
The balance relies on the Condominium Act’s trust provisions and on whatever excess deposit insurance
the developer has arranged. Ask to see it. (Freehold is different: $60,000 on homes at or under
$600,000, and 10% to a maximum of $100,000 above that.)
From 1 January 2027, buyers who notify Tarion of the transaction within
45 days of signing qualify for the maximum deposit coverage available; register later
and you fall under a sub-limit against a $15 million annual special fund. Nobody does this for you.
What I’d do with all of this
If you are a first-time buyer who intends to live in the home: this is the best negotiating position
buyers have had in this market in a decade. Prices are down across every district, developers are
sitting on record finished inventory, the GST rebate returns up to $50,000, and Toronto’s development
charge cut is being passed through on new permits. Buy finished or near-finished product where you can
see the suite, and get a development charge cap and assignment rights written into the agreement
during your ten days.
If you are an investor: sit this one out, or buy resale where the discount is real and the carry is
knowable. The pre-construction premium over resale has compressed from about 40% to 18%, which tells
you the market has already repriced the trade.
If you already hold a pre-construction contract closing in 2026 or 2027: get your closing costs
projected now, not at closing. Interim occupancy fees, development charge adjustments, HST and Tarion
enrolment add up fast, and there are more options available to you at ninety days out than at ten.
Sources
- Altus Group / BILD GTA new home sales release, 27 August 2026 (July 2026 data)
- TRREB Market Watch, July 2026, published 6 August 2026
- TRREB Rental Market Report, Q1 2026, published 21 May 2026
- Urbanation Q1 2026, Q2 2026 and full-year 2025 condominium market releases, and the GTHA rental market report for Q2 2026
- Urbanation / CIBC Condo Investment Report, July 2024
- GST relief for first-time home buyers — Department of Finance Canada
- Buying a pre-construction condo — Condominium Authority of Ontario
- Pre-possession coverage — Tarion
- Development charges — City of Toronto
- Development charges — City of Mississauga
- Land transfer tax — Government of Ontario
- Municipal land transfer tax — City of Toronto
Want this applied to your actual purchase?
Send me the project and the suite and I’ll come back with the real comparables, your GST and LTT
rebate position, a closing cost projection and a carry estimate. No obligation, and I’ll tell you if
the answer is don’t buy it.
Jatin Dua, Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty ·
437-987-1925 ·
connect@jatindua.com
Related reading
- 6 new pre-construction condos in Etobicoke and the West GTA — Fall 2026
- Every pre-construction project I track
All figures as published on the dates shown and believed accurate but
not guaranteed. Market data changes monthly; this report is next scheduled for update in October 2026.
Nothing here is financial, tax or legal advice — I am a real estate broker, not a lawyer or a financial
advisor, and you should confirm your rebate and tax position with your own professionals. Not intended
to solicit buyers or sellers under contract with another brokerage. E.&O.E.
Get the real numbers on this market report
Tell me which suite or project you are looking at and I will send the actual sold and lease comparables from TRREB, a carry projection, and my read on whether the deposit structure protects you. No obligation, and I will tell you if the answer is don’t buy it.
Or call Jatin Dua, Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty · 437-987-1925
About the author — Jatin Dua, Etobicoke real estate agent
I’m the Broker of Record at RE/MAX Quantum Realty, 799 The Queensway in Etobicoke. I write these pages the same way I work a file: read the primary source, quote it, date it, and say plainly where the source is silent or where two sources disagree. If a figure on this page has no citation beside it, that is a mistake and I want to hear about it.
I work with buyers, sellers, renters and investors across Etobicoke, Mimico, Humber Bay Shores, New Toronto, Long Branch, Alderwood and Stonegate–Queensway. connect@jatindua.com or 437-987-1925.