How accurate is our home value estimator?
We test our condo and home estimators the hard way. We hide 1 in 5 recent GTA sales from the model, estimate those homes as if they were new, and compare each estimate with the price the home actually sold for. Here are the results, including where the tools are weaker.
Last tested September 22, 2026 · 7,258 test sales · TRREB MLS data, Sep 2025 to Sep 2026
Condo estimator
7.5%
typical error on 1,673 test sales
61% of estimates landed within 10% of the sale price
Home estimator
8.5%
typical error on 5,585 test sales
56% of estimates landed within 10% of the sale price
“Typical error” is the median: half of the estimates were closer to the sale price than this, and half were further away.
Results by area
Condo estimator
| Area | Test sales | Typical error | Within 5% | Within 10% | Within 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etobicoke | 139 | 6.0% | 47% | 65% | 75% |
| Toronto (downtown, midtown, North York, east end, Scarborough) | 1,039 | 7.7% | 35% | 61% | 74% |
| Peel, York and Halton | 495 | 7.4% | 37% | 61% | 79% |
| All areas | 1,673 | 7.5% | 37% | 61% | 75% |
Home estimator (detached, semi-detached and freehold townhouses)
| Area | Test sales | Typical error | Within 5% | Within 10% | Within 15% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etobicoke | 310 | 11.7% | 22% | 45% | 64% |
| Toronto (the old city, East York, York, North York and Scarborough) | 1,810 | 11.2% | 25% | 45% | 62% |
| Peel, York and Halton | 3,465 | 7.4% | 36% | 63% | 80% |
| All areas | 5,585 | 8.5% | 32% | 56% | 73% |
Home estimator by type of home
| Type | Test sales | Typical error | Within 10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freehold townhouses | 853 | 7.2% | 64% |
| Semi-detached | 982 | 8.3% | 58% |
| Detached | 3,750 | 9.1% | 54% |
Where the estimate is strongest, and where it misses
The estimators are most accurate where homes are alike: condo towers, where the same building has sold many similar units, and newer subdivisions in Mississauga, Brampton, Vaughan, Markham, Oakville, Burlington and Milton, where streets are full of similar houses.
They are weakest on detached houses in older Toronto and Etobicoke neighbourhoods. A 1950s bungalow and a new custom home can sit side by side on the same street and sell a million dollars apart. A model sees the size, lot, age and location. It does not see the kitchen, the finishes, the layout or the condition. That is why Etobicoke and Toronto houses have a typical error of about 11 to 12%, and why about 1 in 5 homes overall sold for more than 18% above or below its estimate.
This is also why every estimate is shown as a range, not a single number.
What made it more accurate
How we test
- Real sales only. We use every condo apartment, detached, semi-detached and freehold townhouse sale reported on TRREB’s MLS® system across Toronto, Etobicoke and Peel, York and Halton in the last 12 months: 27,999 house sales and 15,221 condo sales.
- Hide 1 in 5 sales. Sales are split at random: 80% are used to build the estimator, and the other 20% are kept out of it completely.
- Estimate the hidden homes. Each hidden home is run through the estimator using only the details a homeowner would enter: size, type, age, lot, bedrooms, parking and address.
- Compare with the real sale price. Older sales are adjusted to today’s market so every comparison is fair, and we report the median error and how many estimates landed within 5%, 10% and 15%.
- Repeat every quarter. The estimators are rebuilt with the latest sales every three months and this page is updated with the new results.
We only publish totals, medians and percentages. No individual sale price is shown on this page or in the estimators.
Want a number you can plan around?
An online estimate is a good starting point. A 20-minute walkthrough takes in what a model cannot see, and gets you a price range for your home with no obligation.
Estimate my condoEstimate my houseBook a free home evaluation
Or call or text Jatin Dua at 833-330-1925.
Questions
How accurate are online home value estimates in Toronto?
On our own tests, the typical error is 7.5% for condos and 8.5% for houses. About 6 in 10 condo estimates and 5.5 in 10 house estimates land within 10% of the final sale price. Detached houses in older Toronto and Etobicoke neighbourhoods are the hardest to estimate, because homes on the same street can differ a lot inside.
Why is my estimate a range instead of one number?
Because the model cannot see your home’s condition, finishes or layout. The range reflects how far similar homes’ sale prices spread around the estimate. The middle of the range is the most likely price, based only on the details you entered.
How often are the estimators updated?
Every quarter. Each time, we rebuild them with the latest 12 months of TRREB MLS sales, re-run the accuracy test on hidden sales, and update this page.
How is an online estimate different from an in-person evaluation?
An online estimate compares your home with recent sales using the facts you enter. An in-person evaluation adds what only a visit shows: renovations, condition, light, view, noise and how buyers will see the home, and it compares your home with the specific recent sales that are most like it.
Which areas do the estimators cover?
Toronto, including Etobicoke, North York, East York, York and Scarborough, plus Mississauga, Brampton, Vaughan, Markham, Richmond Hill, Oakville, Burlington and Milton. You can see typical prices for each area on our home values by neighbourhood pages.