Published 7 September 2026 · By Jatin Dua, Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty
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Get My Free Estimate →Nobody can forecast this market honestly, and I am not going to pretend otherwise. What can be done is naming the levers that would actually move it and stating what each one is currently set to.
There are four. The federal foreign buyer ban expires 1 January 2027 unless extended again. Toronto’s municipal land transfer tax rose on 1 April 2026 above $3 million and is now a larger drag on the top end. New listings fell 14.1% year over year in August 2026, which is a supply story. And the condominium market is carrying a record 4,295 completed unsold units. Watch those four, not a forecast.
Why there is no forecast on this page
With roughly 300 GTA sales above $3 million across four months and 62 above $5 million, the top of this market is a small-sample environment where a handful of transactions swing a percentage. A forecast built on that base would be a guess with decimal places.
What is genuinely useful is knowing which conditions would have to change, and what each is currently set to. There are four.
Lever one: the foreign buyer ban, 1 January 2027
The federal Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act has been in force since 1 January 2023 and is currently scheduled to expire on 1 January 2027. That is the only genuinely dated event on the horizon.
Lever two: the tax drag, already applied
On 1 April 2026 Toronto raised its municipal land transfer tax on every portion of price above $3 million.
| Price | Before | Now | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4,000,000 | $96,475 | $105,475 | +$9,000 |
| $5,000,000 | $141,475 | $159,975 | +$18,500 |
| $10,000,000 | $416,475 | $484,975 | +$68,500 |
Combined with Ontario’s tax, a $5,000,000 Toronto purchase now costs $271,450 on closing, and a $10,000,000 purchase $721,450. That is a permanent friction on transaction volume at the top, and it is the second increase concentrated on this band in three years.
Lever three: listings
The most under-read figure in TRREB’s August 2026 release: new listings down 14.1% year over year, against sales down 2.1%. Supply left roughly seven times faster than demand.
At the top end, the same pattern is even sharper. A 17% fall in $3 million-plus sales — 300 against 361 — is very largely a listings story. Owners of $4 million houses are rarely forced sellers; when they are uncertain, they simply do not list.
What to watch: whether listings return. A rise in top-end listings would produce more transactions and more buyer choice, and it is the single most likely source of genuine change in this market.
Lever four: the condominium overhang
| Q1 2026, GTHA | Figure |
|---|---|
| New project launches | Zero — first quarter in 30 years |
| New condo sales | 246, down 52% year over year |
| Completed but unsold | 4,295 — a record |
| Unsold under construction | 8,629 |
| New construction price | $1,189 per sq ft |
| Resale price | $859 per sq ft |
| Gap | 38% — a record |
What to watch: that gap. New projects launch when development economics work, and they do not work while an existing unit costs 38% less than a new one. The gap narrows either because resale rises or because construction costs fall. Nothing else changes the arithmetic.
What would not change much
- The core luxury segment’s scarcity. Rosedale, Lawrence Park, the Bridle Path and Forest Hill are not adding lots. Heritage districts, ravine bylaws and two-acre minimums see to that.
- The buyer pool’s character. Domestic, well advised, patient, and largely unleveraged.
- The regulatory load. Tree permits, ravine permits, TRCA clearance and heritage district plans are structural, not cyclical.
What this means for a decision now
If you are buying: the risk of waiting is not usually paying more. It is that with roughly 300 GTA sales above $3 million in four months, the specific property you want may not have an equivalent for a year. Options are the scarce thing, not price.
If you are selling: thin listings are your friend. The mistake is treating scarcity as licence to overprice — the buyer pool is small, patient and entirely willing to wait you out, and a reduction after eight weeks is watched by everyone in the band.
The honest conclusion
I do not know what the Toronto luxury market will do in 2027, and neither does anyone who tells you they do. What I can tell you is that one date is fixed, one tax increase has already landed, listings are the variable to watch, and the condominium gap is arithmetic rather than sentiment. Track those four, ignore the forecasts, and make your decision on your own circumstances.
Frequently asked questions
Will Toronto luxury prices go up in 2027?
Nobody knows, and any confident answer should be treated with suspicion. What is knowable is which conditions would have to change: the foreign buyer ban’s scheduled expiry on 1 January 2027, the tax drag introduced on 1 April 2026, listing supply, and the condominium inventory overhang.
What happens when the foreign buyer ban expires?
The federal prohibition is currently set to expire on 1 January 2027. Its expiry would not remove Ontario’s 25% Non-Resident Speculation Tax or Toronto’s 10% Municipal Non-Resident Speculation Tax, which are separate provincial and municipal measures with no expiry attached. Note also that the federal ban has been extended before.
How much did the April 2026 tax increase change things?
It added roughly $9,000 at a $4 million purchase, $18,500 at $5 million and $68,500 at $10 million. Combined land transfer tax on a $5,000,000 Toronto home is now $271,450, payable in cash on closing.
Is low inventory good or bad for the market?
It supports prices and reduces choice. In August 2026, GTA new listings were down 14.1% year over year while sales were down only 2.1% — supply left faster than demand. For buyers that means less negotiating room than a soft headline suggests.
Will the condo market recover?
The condition to watch is the gap between new construction at $1,189 per square foot and resale at $859 — a record 38%. New projects launch when that gap narrows enough for development economics to work. Until then, Q1 2026’s zero launches is the logical outcome rather than an anomaly.
Should I wait to buy or sell?
That depends on your own circumstances rather than on a market call. What is true is that above $3 million the choice set is very small — roughly 300 GTA sales in four months — so waiting has a real cost in options as well as a possible benefit in price.
Thinking about buying or selling at the top end?
Send me the address, or the shortlist you are considering. I will tell you what the property is actually worth today, what the land is worth without the house, what the transfer tax and carrying costs will be, and whether the deal makes sense. Confidential, always.
connect@jatindua.com · 437-987-1925 · Book a free consultation
Confidential. Read personally and answered within 24 hours. I never share, sell or distribute your information.
Related reading
- Toronto luxury real estate in 2026: what the numbers actually say
- Can a foreign buyer purchase a luxury home in Toronto in 2026?
- Toronto raised its luxury land transfer tax again: what changed on 1 April 2026
- The Toronto luxury condo market in 2026: two markets in one city
- 37 questions about Toronto luxury real estate, answered straight
Sources
Everything above that is a rule, a rate or a published number comes from these. Verify anything that matters to your own deal.
- Toronto Regional Real Estate Board — Market Watch, August 2026
- RE/MAX Canada — 2026 Spotlight on Luxury Real Estate, Greater Toronto
- Real Estate Magazine — Q1 2026 condominium market (Urbanation data)
- Government of Canada — Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act
- City of Toronto — Municipal Land Transfer Tax rates and fees
- Government of Ontario — Non-Resident Speculation Tax
About the author — Jatin Dua, Broker of Record
I’m the Broker of Record at RE/MAX Quantum Realty, 799 The Queensway in Etobicoke, and I work with buyers, sellers and investors across Toronto and the west GTA. A large part of my work sits in the upper end of the market, where the comparables are thin, the rules are heavier and the cost of a wrong number is measured in hundreds of thousands of dollars.
The free estimators on this site are mine. I built them because the first question every owner asks is “what is it worth?” and the honest answer starts with a number you can check yourself. connect@jatindua.com or 437-987-1925.