Published 2 November 2026 · By Jatin Dua, Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty
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For most investors, not in 2027. GTA pre-construction sales fell to 60 units in Q3 2026, finished new condos ask 20% below the 2023 peak, and rents of about $3.83 per square foot do not cover a typical mortgage. It can work for patient buyers who plan to hold long term and can close even if values fall.
This is for buyers and investors in Toronto and the wider GTA who are weighing a pre-construction condo for 2027. You will get the latest new-condo numbers, a side-by-side look at resale prices, the real cash-flow math, and the Ontario rules that protect your deposit.
Is a pre-construction condo a good investment in Toronto right now?
For most short-term investors, not right now. For a patient buyer with strong cash reserves, it can be. The new condo market in the GTA is in its weakest stretch in years. Sales of pre-construction units have dropped for three straight years, and finished units that never sold are still sitting empty. That pushes prices down and gives buyers room to negotiate.
The flip side is the future supply gap. Very few new towers are starting construction, so the number of new condos finishing each year will shrink later this decade. A buyer who signs in 2027 and closes around the end of the decade could be closing into a tighter market. Nobody can promise that, though, and the risks before closing are real.
The simple test: a pre-construction condo only works as an investment if you can close it even if prices fall, rates rise and the rent does not cover your costs.
What is happening in the GTA new condo market in 2026?
Urbanation, a research firm that tracks GTA condos, published its third-quarter report on October 19, 2026. The key numbers:
- Pre-construction sales: only 60 units sold in the third quarter, down 61% from a year earlier and the 12th quarter in a row of yearly declines.
- Total new condo sales: 760 units, but 648 of those were units in finished buildings. Investment groups bought 339 units in bulk deals.
- Bulk discount: those bulk buyers paid, on average, 40% less than the original prices in the same buildings.
- Unsold finished units: 5,127, down from a record 5,485 in the second quarter but 40% higher than a year earlier.
- Asking prices: finished, unsold units averaged $1,157 per square foot, 20% below the 2023 peak of $1,446. New units that sold in the quarter averaged $1,045 per square foot, leaving out bulk and luxury deals.
- Construction starts: 2,696 units in the first nine months of 2026, 82% below the 10-year average.
| Year | Scheduled GTHA condo completions |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 20,868 |
| 2027 | 15,825 |
| 2028 | 12,065 |
| 2029 | 4,213 |
Source: Urbanation, Q3 2026 GTHA condo market report (October 19, 2026).
Urbanation’s president said this sets the market up for a significant shortage by the end of the decade. That is a forecast, not a promise, but it is the main argument for buying now.
How do resale condo prices compare with pre-construction prices?
Resale condos keep getting cheaper too. Here are median sold prices for condo apartments from January to October of each year.
| Area | Median 2024 | Median 2025 | Median 2026 | 2026 vs 2025 | Avg days on market 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto C01 (downtown core) | $680,000 | $642,650 | $600,000 | −6.6% | 37 |
| Toronto C08 (downtown east) | $657,750 | $610,000 | $565,000 | −7.4% | 38 |
| Toronto W08 (central Etobicoke) | $603,500 | $575,000 | $525,000 | −8.7% | 38 |
| Mississauga | $583,000 | $535,000 | $485,000 | −9.3% | 42 |
| Vaughan | $635,000 | $595,000 | $530,000 | −10.9% | 42 |
| Markham | $700,000 | $643,000 | $558,000 | −13.2% | 39 |
Source: TRREB MLS data via REALM, January–October 2026 vs the same period of 2025 and 2024 (median sold prices, condo apartments).
Now compare. A 600-square-foot new unit at Urbanation’s third-quarter average of $1,045 per square foot costs about $627,000. That is higher than the 2026 resale median in every area in the table. Resale units vary in size and age, so this is not a perfect match. But the gap tells you something: today you can often buy a finished condo, with keys now and a rent cheque next month, for less than a unit you will not get for years.
What can go wrong when you buy a pre-construction condo?
Most of the risk sits in the gap between signing and closing, which can be several years.
The appraisal gap
When the building registers, your lender appraises the unit at its value on that day, not the price you signed for. Here is a simple example with labelled assumptions:
- Purchase price: $627,000. You plan to borrow 80%, which is $501,600.
- Assume the unit appraises 10% lower at closing, at $564,300.
- 80% of the appraised value is $451,440.
- You must find the difference, $50,160, in cash on top of your down payment.
Given that bulk buyers recently paid 40% below original prices in some buildings, a 10% gap is not an extreme example.
Delays, cancellations and extra fees
Projects can run late or be cancelled. You may also pay interim occupancy fees while you live in or own a unit before the building is registered, and those payments do not reduce your mortgage. Closing adjustments can add thousands more; this breakdown of pre-construction closing costs shows what to expect.
Do not count on selling your contract before closing. With pre-construction sales this slow, assignment buyers are scarce, and your agreement may limit or charge for assignments. If you cannot close on your own money and income, do not sign.
Condo Valuation
What’s your condo
worth today?
Three quick steps. Condos don’t price like houses — your floor, your view, and whether you own parking move the number more than anything else. This weighs all of them.
Reading recent condo sales…
Estimated market value
—
$0–$0
Most likely $0 · about $0 per square foot
What moved the number
Starting from what comparable units in your area sell for, here’s what your specifics added or subtracted.
Market context
—
—
Two units, same floor plan,
$90,000 apart.
That happens constantly in condos — one has the parking, the right exposure, or a board that keeps the reserve fund healthy. A model can’t see your status certificate. I can.
Will a pre-construction condo cash flow as a rental in 2027?
Usually not at today’s prices and rates. Here is the math on the same $627,000 unit. The assumptions are mine and are only for illustration:
- Down payment: 20%, or $125,400. Mortgage: $501,600 over 25 years.
- Example rate: 4.5% fixed. Monthly payment: about $2,776.
- Stress test: lenders qualify you at the higher of 5.25% or your rate plus 2 points, so 6.5% here. The qualifying payment is about $3,360 a month.
- Rent: Urbanation reported an average GTA condo rent of $3.83 per square foot in the third quarter of 2026. For 600 square feet, that is about $2,298 a month.
So the rent is about $478 a month short of the mortgage alone, before condo fees, property tax, insurance and repairs. Rents did rise 2.4% from the second quarter, and condo rental listings fell 25% from a year earlier, so the rental market is firming. But condo rents were still 0.6% lower than a year before.
If your plan relies on rent rising fast or prices jumping by closing, you are speculating, not investing.
How is your deposit protected on a new condo in Ontario?
Ontario gives condo buyers several protections. Know them before you sign.
| Protection | What it does |
|---|---|
| 10-day cooling-off period | You can cancel within 10 days. The clock starts once you have the purchase agreement, the disclosure statement and the Condominium Buyers’ Guide. |
| Deposits held in trust | The Condominium Act requires condo deposits to be held in trust. If the builder ends the deal, the deposit must come back in full within 10 days. |
| Tarion deposit protection | If the builder does not return it, Tarion covers up to $20,000 per condo unit. |
| Delayed occupancy compensation | $150 a day for living costs, up to $7,500 in total, if the builder misses its firm date. If the builder gives less than 10 days’ notice of a delay, you get $1,500. |
Source: Condominium Authority of Ontario; Tarion deposit protection and condo delay pages.
Use the cooling-off period well. Give the agreement and disclosure statement to a real estate lawyer in the first few days, not on day nine. Our guide to Tarion coverage for pre-construction condos covers the warranty side, and this post explains what happens when a GTA project is cancelled.
What taxes and costs does a condo investor pay at closing?
New condo prices usually include HST. An owner who moves in may qualify for the new housing rebate, and eligible first-time buyers of new homes may qualify for the federal First-Time Home Buyers’ GST Rebate on agreements signed after May 26, 2025. Investors who rent the unit out are treated differently. The Canada Revenue Agency has a separate GST/HST new residential rental property rebate for landlords of new rental units. Ask your lawyer how your agreement handles HST, because an investor may have to pay part of it at closing.
You will also pay land transfer tax on closing (plus the Toronto municipal tax inside the city), legal fees, and any adjustments the agreement allows. Get those numbers from your lawyer in writing before you sign, not before you close.
Who should buy pre-construction in 2027, and who should wait?
A pre-construction condo can make sense if you:
- Plan to hold it for 7 to 10 years or more, ideally to live in it.
- Have cash set aside for a possible appraisal gap and closing costs.
- Can carry the unit even if it rents for less than your costs.
- Are buying from a builder with a solid record of finishing projects.
Wait, or buy resale, if you need the rent to cover the mortgage, you need to sell within a few years, or the deposit is money you cannot afford to lock up.
In my view, 2027 favours buyers of finished condos more than buyers of paper ones. You can see the unit, check the building’s finances and rent it out right away, often for less than a comparable new unit. If you still want pre-construction for the long-term supply story, negotiate hard: ask for a lower deposit, capped closing costs and free assignment rights. Builders need buyers right now, and that is your leverage. For a wider view on the resale side, read whether buying a Toronto condo in 2027 is a good idea.
What to do next
- Price the same size and type of unit in nearby resale buildings before you look at any new launch.
- Run the cash-flow math at the stress-test rate, with condo fees and tax included, and decide if you can carry the loss.
- Have a lawyer review the agreement and disclosure statement within the 10-day cooling-off period.
- Set aside cash for a possible appraisal shortfall, closing costs and interim occupancy fees.
- Ask for the deposit schedule, assignment terms and closing cost caps in writing before you sign.
Need help with this? Talk to me.
I’m Jatin Dua, Broker of Record at RE/MAX Quantum Realty, and I’m the best agent to do this kind of work for you in Toronto and across the GTA. Over $100 million in GTA sales and 100+ families helped sell. Feel free to contact me any time: call or text 833-330-1925 or email [email protected].
Frequently asked questions
Should I buy a pre-construction condo in Toronto in 2027?
Only if you can hold it for many years and close even if values fall. In Q3 2026 Urbanation counted just 60 pre-construction sales in the GTHA, and finished new units were asking 20% less than the 2023 peak. That gives buyers leverage, but resale condos in Toronto and the GTA are often cheaper today and carry less risk.
Are pre-construction condo prices going down in the GTA?
Yes, asking prices have fallen. Urbanation reported finished, unsold new condos asking an average $1,157 per square foot in Q3 2026, down 4% from a year earlier and 20% below the 2023 peak. Bulk buyers paid about 40% less than original prices in the same buildings. Resale condo medians also fell in most GTA areas in 2026.
Is there a cooling-off period for new condos in Ontario?
Yes, 10 days. Under Ontario’s condo rules, a buyer of a new condo can cancel within 10 days, and the clock starts once you have the agreement, the disclosure statement and the Condominium Buyers’ Guide. Use that time in 2027 to have a real estate lawyer review the deal. Resale homes in Ontario have no cooling-off period.
How much of my condo deposit does Tarion protect?
Tarion protects up to $20,000 of a condo deposit. Ontario’s Condominium Act also requires condo deposits to be held in trust, and if the builder ends the agreement the deposit must be returned in full within 10 days. Tarion steps in up to its limit if the builder does not pay. Ask your lawyer how amounts above $20,000 are secured.
Do pre-construction condos cash flow in Toronto?
Most do not at 2026 prices. A 600-square-foot unit at $1,045 per square foot costs about $627,000. With 20% down and an example 4.5% rate, the mortgage is about $2,776 a month, while the Q3 2026 average GTA condo rent of $3.83 per square foot gives about $2,298, before fees and tax.
What happens if my pre-construction condo appraises lower than I paid?
You must cover the shortfall in cash at closing. Lenders lend against the appraised value at closing, not your purchase price. On a $627,000 unit with 80% financing, a 10% lower appraisal cuts the loan from $501,600 to $451,440, so you would need about $50,160 more. Plan for this before you sign.
What compensation do I get if my condo occupancy is delayed in Ontario?
Tarion sets delayed occupancy compensation at $150 a day for living costs, up to $7,500 in total, for condo buyers in Ontario. If the builder gives less than 10 days’ notice of a delay, the buyer gets $1,500. Other delay costs, such as storage or moving, can also be claimed with receipts.
Will Toronto condo prices go up by 2029?
Nobody knows, but supply is shrinking. Urbanation expects GTHA condo completions to drop from 20,868 units in 2026 to 4,213 in 2029, and starts in early 2026 were 82% below the 10-year average. Urbanation calls this a setup for a significant shortage by the end of the decade. Treat that as a forecast, not a guarantee.
Can I sell my pre-construction condo before closing in Toronto?
Sometimes, through an assignment, but it is hard in 2026. Pre-construction sales in the GTHA fell to 60 units in Q3 2026, so there are few assignment buyers, and your agreement may limit or charge for assignments. Read the assignment clause before you sign, and never buy planning to flip the contract.
Sources
- Urbanation: GTHA new condo sales double from a year ago in Q3 (October 19, 2026)
- Urbanation: Rental recovery begins in the GTHA as vacancy and incentives fall (October 27, 2026)
- Condominium Authority of Ontario: Condo Buyers’ Guide
- Tarion: Deposit protection
- Tarion: Condo units, coverage for occupancy dates, delays and cancellations
- Canada Revenue Agency: RC4231 GST/HST New Residential Rental Property Rebate
- TRREB Market Watch (REALM year-to-date figures are TRREB MLS data)
Related reading
- Biggest Condo Developers in Toronto: Track Records Buyers Should Check
- Is It a Good Idea to Buy a Condo in Toronto in 2027?
- Buying a House in Ontario on a Work Permit (2027): What the Foreign Buyer Ban Allows
- Can You Buy a House With No Down Payment in Ontario?
About the author — Jatin Dua, Toronto and GTA real estate broker
I am Jatin Dua, Broker of Record and co-founder of RE/MAX Quantum Realty Inc., Brokerage, Unit 101, 799 The Queensway, Toronto. I work with buyers and sellers across Toronto and the GTA and have helped more than 100 families sell. Four-plus years of active GTA transactions and over $100 million in sales volume.
Reach me at [email protected] or 833-330-1925, or book a call.