5 Things to Know Before Buying a Home in the GTA in 2027

Published 2 November 2026 · By Jatin Dua, Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty

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GTA residential street of brick semi-detached homes with a condo building behind (illustrative)

By Jatin Dua · Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty · Updated 2 November 2026 · 9 min read — Five things every GTA buyer should know for 2027: lower prices, rising rates, down payment rules, closing costs and new rules.

Short answer

Before buying in the GTA in 2027, know that prices fell for two years, with many detached medians 8% to 18% below 2024; rates are rising again, with the Bank of Canada at 2.50%; insured mortgages cap at $1.5 million; closing costs such as land transfer tax add thousands; and some 2027 rules are still pending.

This is for anyone planning to buy a house or condo in Toronto or the wider GTA in 2027, especially first-time buyers. You get the five things I would want any client to know before they start, with real 2026 price data, the current rate and mortgage rules, and the costs people forget.

Is 2027 a good time to buy a home in the GTA?

For many buyers, 2027 starts with lower prices and more choice than they have seen in years, but with borrowing costs moving up again. Nobody can promise that prices have hit bottom. In my view, the right time to buy is when you can afford the payments comfortably, plan to stay at least five years, and have found a home that suits you, not when a headline says so.

The five points below are what I walk every buyer through first.

1. Prices have fallen two years in a row

GTA prices are lower than they were in 2024. Across most municipalities, the median detached home sold for 8% to 18% less from January to October 2026 than in the same months of 2024. Condo apartments fell even further, often 15% to 23%.

Median sold price, Jan–Oct	Detached 2024	Detached 2026	Condo apt 2024	Condo apt 2026
Mississauga	$1,371,085	$1,225,000	$583,000	$485,000
Brampton	$1,127,250	$950,000	$540,000	$415,000
Vaughan	$1,590,000	$1,415,000	$635,000	$530,000
Markham	$1,650,000	$1,420,000	$700,000	$558,000
Oakville	$1,763,000	$1,625,000	$620,000	$528,000
Pickering	$1,190,000	$1,039,999	$569,450	$470,000
Toronto E09 (Scarborough)	$1,050,000	$866,500	$550,000	$450,000

Source: TRREB MLS data via REALM, January–October 2026 vs the same period of 2024. Median sold prices by municipality or TRREB district.

TRREB’s September 2026 report showed the same picture: GTA sales down 9% from a year earlier, the average price at $1,006,409, down about 5%, and buyers in what TRREB called a holding pattern. For you, that means more listings to compare, more time to decide, and more room to negotiate conditions such as financing and inspection. It does not mean every home is a bargain. Good homes on good streets still draw multiple buyers.

If you are hunting for the lowest entry price, my guide to the most affordable places to buy a first home in the GTA compares areas.

2. Interest rates are rising again

On 28 October 2026 the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 0.25 points to 2.50%, its first increase in more than three years. The banks raised prime from 4.45% to 4.70% the next day, so variable-rate mortgages went up too. The Bank expects inflation of about 3.5% by the end of 2026, easing to 2% around mid-2028, and said another increase could be needed. Its next decision is on 9 December 2026.

Fixed rates follow bond yields, which rose through September and October 2026. Some economists expect more hikes; others do not. Treat any forecast as a forecast.

What matters most is how much you can borrow. Lenders test you at the higher of 5.25% or your contract rate plus 2 points. CMHC caps housing costs, including mortgage payments, property tax, heat and half of any condo fee, at 39% of gross income.

Household income $150,000, $600/month tax and heat	25-year amortization	30-year amortization
Contract rate 4.25% (tested at 6.25%)	about $653,000	about $700,000
Contract rate 4.50% (tested at 6.50%)	about $638,000	about $682,000

Source: my calculation using CMHC’s 39% gross debt service limit and the federal qualifying rate; illustrative only, no other debts, not a lender quote.

Use the affordability tool below to run your own numbers, then confirm with a lender. My post on how much home you can afford in the GTA explains each ratio.

Free tool — what can you actually afford?

3. Down payment and mortgage insurance rules decide your price range

In Canada the minimum down payment is 5% of the first $500,000 and 10% of the part from $500,000 to $1.5 million. At $1.5 million or more, you need 20% down. With less than 20% down, your mortgage must be insured, and insured mortgages are available on homes up to $1.5 million.

First-time buyers and buyers of newly built homes can get a 30-year amortization on an insured mortgage; other insured buyers are limited to 25 years. The longer term lowers your payment and raises what you qualify for, but you pay more interest overall.

Here is how the insurance premium works on a $700,000 purchase with the minimum down payment:

Minimum down payment: $25,000 on the first $500,000 plus $20,000 on the next $200,000, so $45,000.
Mortgage: $655,000, which is about 94% of the price, so CMHC’s premium is 4.00%, or $26,200, added to the mortgage.
With a 30-year amortization, add 0.20%: the premium becomes about $27,510.
In Ontario, provincial sales tax applies to the premium. CMHC says it cannot be added to the loan, so at 8% you need roughly $2,100 to $2,200 in cash at closing.

More detail is in my guide to the minimum down payment in Ontario.

4. Closing costs and first-time buyer programs change the cash you need

Your down payment is not the only cash you need. Land transfer tax is the biggest closing cost for most GTA buyers. Ontario charges 0.5% on the first $55,000, 1% up to $250,000, 1.5% up to $400,000, 2% above that, and 2.5% on the part over $2 million. On a $700,000 home that is $10,475.

Ontario first-time buyer refund: up to $4,000, which cuts that $10,475 to $6,475. You must live in the home within nine months and never have owned a home anywhere.
City of Toronto: inside the city you also pay Toronto’s municipal land transfer tax, with its own first-time buyer rebate. Check the current amount on toronto.ca before you budget. See my Toronto land transfer tax guide.
FHSA: the First Home Savings Account gives you $8,000 of room in the first year, up to $40,000 over your lifetime. Contributions are generally tax-deductible and qualifying withdrawals for a first home are tax-free.
Home Buyers’ Plan: you can withdraw up to $60,000 from your RRSP. For a first withdrawal made from 2026 to 2028, repayments start in the fifth year after the withdrawal. The CRA says you can use the HBP and an FHSA for the same home. My FHSA vs Home Buyers’ Plan guide compares them.
New homes: the federal First-Time Home Buyers’ GST Rebate gives full GST relief on new homes up to $1 million (a maximum of $50,000), phasing out to zero at $1.5 million, for agreements signed after 26 May 2025 and before 2031.

Add legal fees, a home inspection, title insurance and moving costs. Budget for these early so your down payment stays intact.

5. New rules and costs to plan for in 2027

A few rules affect what you buy and how you plan:

Cooling-off on new freehold homes. Ontario has passed a 10-day right to cancel a purchase of a new freehold home, in section 53.2 of the New Home Construction Licensing Act. As of November 2026, the statute still shows it as not in force, with the start date to be set by proclamation. Until it starts, only new condo buyers have a cooling-off period. Read more on the freehold cooling-off period.
Rent rules if you plan to rent out. Ontario’s rent increase guideline for 2027 is 1.9%. Units first occupied after 15 November 2018 are exempt.
Property tax. Toronto’s 2026 budget raised the combined residential property tax and City Building Fund by 2.2%, about $91.53 a year on an average home assessed at $692,140. Each GTA city sets its own rate, so check the city where you are buying.
Transit. Line 5 Eglinton opened on 8 February 2026 from Mount Dennis to Kennedy. The Ontario Line has no confirmed opening date beyond the early 2030s. Do not pay extra today for a station that is years away.

Watch out

A pre-approval is not a promise. If rates rise again before you buy, or the lender does not like the property or its appraisal, the amount can change. Ask for a rate hold, keep your offer conditional on financing unless your lender has approved the specific property, and do not take on new debt while you shop.

My take

For buyers with steady jobs and a long time horizon, I think 2027 offers more choice and better negotiating power than the last few years, even with rates edging up. I would build my budget at a rate higher than today’s, stay well below my maximum approval, and choose the home I would still want in five years.

What to do next

Run your numbers in the affordability tool above, then get a written pre-approval with a rate hold.
Open an FHSA now if you qualify, so your contribution room starts building.
Price out closing costs, including land transfer tax and the CMHC premium tax, for the city you plan to buy in.
Pick two or three areas and track their recent sales for a few weeks before you make an offer.
Keep your offers conditional on financing and inspection unless you have a firm reason not to.

Need help with this? Talk to me.

I’m Jatin Dua, Broker of Record at RE/MAX Quantum Realty, and I’m the best agent to do this kind of work for you in Toronto and across the GTA. Over $100 million in GTA sales and 100+ families helped sell. Feel free to contact me any time: call or text 833-330-1925 or email [email protected].

Book a free call Call 833-330-1925

Frequently asked questions

Is 2027 a good time to buy a house in Ontario?

It can be, for buyers with stable income who plan to stay at least five years. GTA prices fell from 2024 to 2026, with many detached medians down 8% to 18%, per TRREB MLS data via REALM. But the Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.50% in October 2026 and said more increases could come. Buy when the payments fit your budget, not on a forecast.

Will house prices go down in the GTA in 2027?

No one knows for sure. Detached and condo medians fell in nearly every GTA municipality from January to October 2026, according to TRREB MLS data via REALM, and TRREB described buyers as being in a holding pattern. TRREB also points to pent-up demand. Higher rates add pressure, but any 2027 price forecast is a guess, so buy based on your own plans.

How much income do I need to buy a house in the GTA in 2027?

It depends on the price, rate and your debts. As an example, a household earning $150,000 with $600 a month in tax and heat and no other debts could qualify for a mortgage of roughly $638,000 to $653,000 over 25 years, if tested at 6.25% to 6.50%. That assumes CMHC’s 39% limit. Ontario lenders will give you the exact figure.

What is the minimum down payment for a house in Ontario in 2027?

The minimum is 5% of the first $500,000 and 10% of the portion between $500,000 and $1.5 million. Homes at $1.5 million or more need 20% down. On a $700,000 Ontario home, that is $45,000. With under 20% down you also pay a mortgage insurance premium, and in Ontario the sales tax on that premium is due in cash at closing.

What is the Bank of Canada interest rate now?

The Bank of Canada’s policy rate is 2.50%, after a 0.25-point increase on 28 October 2026, its first hike in more than three years. Big banks raised prime to 4.70% effective 29 October. The Bank said another increase could be needed. Its next decision is on 9 December 2026, and its next Monetary Policy Report is due on 27 January 2027.

Can first-time buyers get a 30-year mortgage in Canada?

Yes. First-time buyers and buyers of newly built homes can get a 30-year amortization on an insured mortgage, available on homes up to $1.5 million. Other insured buyers are limited to 25 years. CMHC adds 0.20% to the insurance premium for a 30-year amortization. The longer term lowers payments but costs more interest over time.

How much is land transfer tax on a $700,000 home in Ontario?

Ontario land transfer tax on a $700,000 home is $10,475. First-time buyers can get a refund of up to $4,000, bringing it to $6,475. If the home is in the City of Toronto, you also pay Toronto’s municipal land transfer tax, which has its own first-time buyer rebate, so check toronto.ca for the current figure before you budget.

Can I use the FHSA and the Home Buyers’ Plan together?

Yes. The CRA says you can make a Home Buyers’ Plan withdrawal and a qualifying FHSA withdrawal for the same home if you meet the conditions for each. The HBP limit is $60,000 from your RRSP. The FHSA gives $8,000 of room in the first year and up to $40,000 over your lifetime, which helps many Ontario first-time buyers.

Is there a cooling-off period when buying a new house in Ontario?

Not yet for freehold homes. Ontario passed a 10-day right to cancel a new freehold home purchase in section 53.2 of the New Home Construction Licensing Act, but as of November 2026 it was still not in force, with a start date to be set by proclamation. New condo buyers already have a cooling-off period under the Condominium Act.

Top 5 Things to Know Before Buying a Home in the GTA in 2027