Published 2 November 2026 · By Jatin Dua, Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty
GTA prices fell again in 2026: detached medians dropped about 5% to 9% in most cities and condos fell more. For 2027, CREA, TD and CMHC expect more sales and roughly flat prices, but most of those forecasts came before the Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.50% in October 2026.
This is for GTA buyers, sellers and owners who want to know what 2027 might look like before they make a move. You will get the real TRREB MLS numbers for 2024, 2025 and 2026 by home type and city, what the October 2026 rate hike changes, and what the major forecasters expect, with my own cautious view clearly labelled.
What happened to GTA home prices in 2026?
Prices fell again in 2026, for the second year in a row. Across the GTA, median sold prices for January to October 2026 were lower than the same months of 2025 in almost every city and for almost every home type. Condo apartments took the biggest hit.
Of the 24 municipalities around Toronto in the data set, 23 saw a lower detached median than in 2025. Burlington was the one that held flat. In Toronto, 31 of 34 districts with at least 30 detached sales were down. Condo apartment medians fell in all 15 surrounding municipalities with at least 40 condo sales.
| Municipality | Detached median 2025 | Detached median 2026 | Change | Condo apt median 2025 | Condo apt median 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississauga | $1,300,000 | $1,225,000 | -5.8% | $535,000 | $485,000 | -9.3% |
| Brampton | $1,042,750 | $950,000 | -8.9% | $475,000 | $415,000 | -12.6% |
| Oakville | $1,675,000 | $1,625,000 | -3.0% | $562,000 | $528,000 | -6.0% |
| Burlington | $1,250,000 | $1,249,750 | -0.0% | $557,500 | $529,950 | -4.9% |
| Milton | $1,210,000 | $1,130,000 | -6.6% | $585,000 | $515,000 | -12.0% |
| Vaughan | $1,490,000 | $1,415,000 | -5.0% | $595,000 | $530,000 | -10.9% |
| Markham | $1,518,000 | $1,420,000 | -6.5% | $643,000 | $558,000 | -13.2% |
| Richmond Hill | $1,630,000 | $1,485,000 | -8.9% | $580,000 | $529,250 | -8.8% |
| Newmarket | $1,190,000 | $1,070,000 | -10.1% | $562,000 | $490,000 | -12.8% |
| Pickering | $1,130,000 | $1,039,999 | -8.0% | $544,250 | $470,000 | -13.6% |
| Whitby | $1,041,250 | $977,000 | -6.2% | $571,450 | $536,000 | -6.2% |
| Oshawa | $800,000 | $730,000 | -8.8% | $397,500 | $340,500 | -14.3% |
Source: TRREB MLS data via REALM, January–October 2026 vs the same period of 2025 (median sold price, year to date).
The monthly TRREB numbers tell the same story. In September 2026, GTA sales were 5,040, down 9% from a year earlier. The average price was $1,006,409, down 5.1%. The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark was down 4.7%. TRREB described buyers as being in a holding pattern.
How many homes sold in the GTA in 2024, 2025 and 2026?
Sales across the five main home types dropped from 55,833 in January to October 2024 to 51,192 in 2025, and to 50,083 in 2026. That is a small dip in 2026 after a bigger drop in 2025. Detached sales actually held level with 2025. The weakness was in condos and townhouses.
| Home type | Sales Jan–Oct 2024 | Sales Jan–Oct 2025 | Sales Jan–Oct 2026 | Avg days on market 2024 / 2025 / 2026 | Active listings end of Oct 2024 / 2025 / 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | 24,947 | 23,162 | 23,172 | 21 / 26 / 29 | 9,707 / 11,929 / 10,859 |
| Semi-detached | 5,019 | 4,978 | 4,709 | 17 / 21 / 23 | 1,217 / 1,511 / 1,311 |
| Freehold townhouse | 5,377 | 5,048 | 4,726 | 20 / 25 / 27 | 1,723 / 2,003 / 1,651 |
| Condo townhouse | 4,453 | 3,980 | 3,836 | 25 / 31 / 37 | 1,830 / 2,117 / 1,945 |
| Condo apartment | 16,037 | 14,024 | 13,640 | 31 / 37 / 40 | 8,648 / 8,916 / 8,077 |
Source: TRREB MLS data via REALM, January–October 2024, 2025 and 2026, totals for Toronto’s 35 districts and 24 surrounding municipalities in the data set. Days on market are sales-weighted averages.
What the days-on-market numbers mean
Days on market is how long a home sits before it sells. It has gone up every year for every home type. A typical detached home now takes about a week longer to sell than in 2024. A typical condo apartment takes about 40 days. Longer selling times mean buyers have more time to think, compare and negotiate.
Active listings (homes for sale at the end of October) were a bit lower in 2026 than in 2025, though still above 2024 for most home types. Fewer listings with steady detached sales is why the detached market looks more balanced than the condo market.
What does the October 2026 Bank of Canada rate hike mean for 2027?
On 28 October 2026, the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 0.25 points to 2.50%. It was the first increase in more than three years. The Bank said it wants to stop high energy prices, linked to the war in the Middle East, from spreading into other prices. It expects inflation to reach about 3.5% by the end of 2026 and to average about 3% in 2027, returning to 2% by mid-2028.
The Bank also said there could be a need to raise rates again, and that it expects housing activity to remain relatively weak. Its next decision is on 9 December 2026, and the next Monetary Policy Report is due on 27 January 2027.
Variable rates moved right away
The big banks raised their prime rate from 4.45% to 4.70%, effective 29 October 2026. If you have a variable-rate mortgage or a home equity line of credit tied to prime, your rate went up by 0.25 points. By my own arithmetic, a 0.25-point rise adds roughly $65 to $70 a month to a $500,000 mortgage on a 25-year amortization, and more on a bigger loan.
Fixed rates follow bond yields
Fixed mortgage rates are not set by the Bank of Canada. They follow Government of Canada bond yields, which rose through September and October 2026. That is why fixed rates were already climbing before the hike.
Will there be more hikes in 2027?
Economists disagree. TD Economics expects one more 0.25-point hike in the first quarter of 2027, taking the rate to 2.75%. CIBC expects a hold in December, a hike in January, and then no change for the rest of 2027. RBC economists have said they expect three more increases in total. Treat all of these as forecasts. If you want a deeper look at the choice, see my guide on fixed or variable mortgages.
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What are the forecasts for the GTA housing market in 2027?
Most forecasters expect a modest rebound in sales in 2027 and roughly flat prices. But three of the main forecasts below were made before the October hike, so read them as the best case, not the base case.
| Who | Published | What they expect for 2027 | Key assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| CREA (national) | 16 Oct 2026 | 464,235 sales (+4.4%); average price $689,909 (+1.2%) | Limited Bank of Canada action over the next year |
| TD Economics (Ontario) | 29 Sep 2026 | Sales +7.4%; average price +0.6% | Bond yields start easing in late 2026 and keep falling in 2027 |
| CMHC (Toronto CMA, baseline) | 22 Jul 2026 | 71,500 MLS sales; average price about $1,050,000 | Five-year fixed posted rate averaging 5.4% in 2027 |
| Bank of Canada | 28 Oct 2026 | Housing activity to stay relatively weak; inflation averaging about 3% in 2027 | Further hikes possible |
Sources: CREA quarterly forecast (Oct 2026); TD Economics Provincial Resale Market Outlook (Sep 2026); CMHC Summer Update 2026 Housing Market Outlook; Bank of Canada rate announcement (28 Oct 2026). All are forecasts, not guarantees, and three of the four were made before the October rate hike.
I could not find a published TRREB outlook for 2027 as of early November 2026. In its September 2026 report, TRREB described GTA buyers as being in a holding pattern.
What else could move GTA prices in 2027?
- The foreign buyer ban. The federal ban on most non-Canadians buying homes is set to expire on 1 January 2027. Reporting in July 2026 said Ottawa was looking at a replacement framework rather than a simple extension. Details matter, so read what the foreign buyer ban actually catches.
- HST relief on new homes. Ontario and Ottawa are offering enhanced HST relief of up to $130,000 on new homes for any eligible buyer, not only first-time buyers, for agreements signed after 31 March 2026 and before 1 April 2027. That deadline could pull some new-home demand into early 2027.
- Mortgage renewals. Owners renewing in 2027 will face the rate level of the day. If rates keep rising, more of them may choose to sell. My piece on mortgage renewal payment increases walks through the maths.
- Insured mortgage rules. Buyers can get an insured mortgage on homes up to $1.5 million, and first-time buyers and buyers of new builds can use a 30-year amortization on insured loans.
Is 2027 a good time to buy a home in the GTA?
For a buyer with a stable job and a solid down payment, the conditions are better than they have been in years. Prices are lower than in 2024, there are more homes to choose from, and sellers are waiting longer. That gives you room to negotiate on price, closing dates and conditions such as financing and inspection.
The trade-off is that rates are rising, not falling. Your purchase price may be lower, but your payment may not be. Get a pre-approval with a rate hold before you shop, and test what your payment would be if your rate were a point higher.
My cautious view, and it is only my view: I would not plan around prices dropping much further in 2027, and I would not plan around a quick rebound either. The data shows a slow, grinding market with buyers in charge of the condo segment and a more balanced detached market. If you find the right home at a price that works with today’s rate, buying in a slow market usually beats chasing a bottom you can only see afterwards.
Is 2027 a good time to sell a home in the GTA?
It can be, if you price for today’s market and not for 2024. Sellers who list at last year’s number tend to sit, then cut, and the longer a home sits the harder it is to sell. If you are selling a detached house, you face more competition than in 2024 but fewer listings than in 2025. If you are selling a condo, expect a longer sale and plan your next purchase around that.
If you are both buying and selling in the same market, the price drop works both ways. What you lose on your sale you often gain back on your purchase, especially if you are moving up to a detached home. My guide on whether to sell first or buy first covers the timing risk.
Forecasts in this post are from CREA, TD, CMHC and the Bank of Canada, and most were made before the October 2026 hike. If the Bank raises rates again in December or January, sales could stay weaker for longer than these forecasts suggest. Do not sign a firm offer on a new home before your current one is sold unless you can carry both.
How do GTA home types compare heading into 2027?
- Detached: sales held level with 2025 and active listings fell. This is the most balanced segment.
- Semi-detached and freehold towns: fewer sales and longer selling times, but still the shortest days on market of any type.
- Condo townhouses: days on market have climbed from about 25 in 2024 to about 37 in 2026.
- Condo apartments: the weakest segment, with the most listings and the longest selling times.
For a Toronto-only view, see my post on whether Toronto house prices will drop in 2027.
What to do next
- Pull the numbers for your own city and home type in the tables above, not the GTA average.
- Get a mortgage pre-approval with a rate hold, and check your payment at a rate one point higher.
- If you own, get a current value estimate based on recent sales near you, not last year’s peak.
- Watch the Bank of Canada decisions on 9 December 2026 and 27 January 2027.
- If you plan to buy a new home, check whether you can sign before 1 April 2027 to qualify for the enhanced HST relief.
Need help with this? Talk to me.
I’m Jatin Dua, Broker of Record at RE/MAX Quantum Realty, and I’m the best agent to do this kind of work for you in Toronto and across the GTA. Over $100 million in GTA sales and 100+ families helped sell. Feel free to contact me any time: call or text 833-330-1925 or email [email protected].
Frequently asked questions
Will GTA house prices go down in 2027?
No one can say for sure, and no major forecaster is calling for a big drop or a big jump in 2027. CREA expects national prices to rise about 1.2% in 2027 and TD expects Ontario prices to rise about 0.6%. Both forecasts came before the Bank of Canada’s October 2026 hike, so prices in the GTA could stay flat or soften further if rates keep rising.
What is the GTA housing market forecast for 2027?
The main 2027 forecasts call for more sales and roughly flat prices. CREA forecasts national sales up 4.4% in 2027, TD forecasts Ontario sales up 7.4%, and CMHC’s July 2026 baseline expects about 71,500 MLS sales in the Toronto area with an average near $1,050,000. These are forecasts, and most were made before the October 2026 rate hike.
How much did GTA home prices drop in 2026?
Median detached prices in most GTA cities fell about 5% to 9% in January to October 2026 compared with 2025, based on TRREB MLS data via REALM. For example, Brampton fell 8.9% and Mississauga 5.8%. Condo apartment medians fell more, often 9% to 14%. Burlington’s detached median was the main exception, holding flat.
Is it a buyer’s market in Toronto and the GTA right now?
For condo apartments, yes, conditions strongly favour buyers in late 2026. In January to October 2026, GTA condo apartments took about 40 days to sell on average, and median prices fell in nearly every area. The detached market is more balanced, with sales holding level with 2025 and fewer active listings than a year earlier.
Will interest rates go up in 2027 in Canada?
Possibly. The Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.50% on 28 October 2026 and said a further increase could be needed. TD expects one more hike in early 2027 to 2.75%, and CIBC expects a January 2027 hike and then a hold. The next decisions are 9 December 2026 and 27 January 2027.
How did the October 2026 rate hike affect mortgages in Ontario?
Variable-rate mortgages and lines of credit tied to prime went up right away. The big banks raised prime from 4.45% to 4.70% on 29 October 2026. Fixed rates are priced off bond yields instead, which had already risen through September and October 2026, so fixed rates were climbing before the hike.
How long does it take to sell a house in the GTA in 2026?
A detached house in the GTA took about 29 days on average to sell in January to October 2026, up from about 21 days in 2024, based on TRREB MLS data via REALM. Condo apartments averaged about 40 days. Times vary a lot by city, price and how well the home is priced.
Should I wait until 2027 to buy a house in the GTA?
Waiting only helps if prices fall more than your borrowing costs rise. In late 2026, GTA prices are already below 2024 levels and buyers have more choice, but rates are rising. If you have a stable income and a home that fits for five years or more, a slow market can be a good time to negotiate.
Is the foreign buyer ban ending in 2027?
The federal ban on most non-Canadians buying homes is set to expire on 1 January 2027. Reporting in July 2026 said the federal government was considering a replacement framework rather than simply extending it. Check the latest federal announcement before relying on any change, since rules for new and existing homes may differ.
Sources
- TRREB Market Watch, September 2026
- Bank of Canada raises the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2½% (28 October 2026)
- CREA quarterly resale housing market forecast (16 October 2026)
- TD Economics, Provincial Resale Market Outlook (September 2026)
- CMHC, Summer Update: 2026 Housing Market Outlook
- Mortgage Professional Canada: economists and brokers react to the October 2026 rate hike
- PwC Tax Insights: Enhanced HST relief on the sale of new homes in Ontario
- Mortgage Professional Canada: Canada’s foreign buyer ban is expiring (July 2026)
Related reading
- Mississauga Housing Market 2027: Prices, Sales and What to Expect
- Brampton Housing Market 2027: Prices, Sales and What to Expect
- Markham and Richmond Hill Housing Market 2027
- Vaughan Housing Market 2027: Prices, Sales and What to Expect
About the author — Jatin Dua, Toronto and GTA real estate broker
I am Jatin Dua, Broker of Record and co-founder of RE/MAX Quantum Realty Inc., Brokerage, Unit 101, 799 The Queensway, Toronto. I work with buyers and sellers across Toronto and the GTA and have helped more than 100 families sell. Four-plus years of active GTA transactions and over $100 million in sales volume.
Reach me at [email protected] or 833-330-1925, or book a call.