Buying a House in Winter in the GTA (2027): Good Idea?

Published 2 November 2026 · By Jatin Dua, Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty

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Snow-covered suburban street of brick detached houses in the GTA in winter (illustrative)

By Jatin Dua · Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty · Updated 2 November 2026 · 10 min read — TRREB numbers on what really changes for GTA buyers in winter, plus how to inspect, finance and negotiate a December or January purchase.

Short answer

For a prepared buyer, winter is often a good time to buy in the GTA. In December 2025, homes sat 41 days on average and sold at 97% of list price, against 27 days and 98% in May 2026. You get less choice, but fewer rival buyers and more room to negotiate price and terms.

This is for buyers in Toronto and across the GTA who are wondering whether to keep looking through December, January and February, or wait for spring 2027. I use TRREB’s monthly numbers to show what really changes in winter, then cover the inspection, financing and negotiation steps that are different when there is snow on the ground.

Is winter a good time to buy a house in the GTA?

For a prepared buyer, often yes. Winter brings fewer listings, but also fewer buyers, more days on the market and a little more room to negotiate. The trade-off is choice: if you need a very specific home on a very specific street, it may simply not come up until spring.

Winter suits buyers who:

have a mortgage pre-approval in hand and a clear budget;
are flexible on the exact neighbourhood or home type;
have a deadline, such as a lease ending or a job starting;
would rather negotiate with one seller than compete in a spring bidding war.

It suits buyers less if they need a big selection to compare, or want to see a garden, pool or roof in good weather before deciding.

How many homes are for sale in winter compared with spring?

Here is the latest full cycle: December 2025, the spring peak in May 2026, and the most recent month, October 2026, across all TRREB areas.

All TRREB areas	Dec 2025	May 2026	Oct 2026
Sales	3,697	6,583	5,603
New listings	5,299	17,698	14,173
Active listings at month end	17,005	26,927	25,098
Median price	$850,000	$910,000	$860,000
Average sold-to-list price	97%	98%	97%
Average days on market (listing)	41	27	31
Months of inventory (trend)	4.9	4.8	4.6

Source: TRREB Market Watch, December 2025, May 2026 and October 2026, all home types.

Three things stand out. First, December 2025 brought 5,299 new listings, under a third of May’s 17,698, and had about 37% fewer active listings, so your choice is smaller. Second, homes took far longer to sell in December, 41 days against 27 in May. Third, months of inventory, which compares supply with the pace of sales, was almost the same in both seasons. In other words, there are fewer homes in winter, but there are also fewer buyers, so the balance between them does not swing much. What changes is time and urgency.

Do houses cost less in December and January?

Average prices are lower in winter, but read that carefully.

Month	2025 sales	2025 average price	2026 sales	2026 average price
January	3,819	$1,041,187	3,044	$968,468
February	4,127	$1,086,586	3,833	$1,007,347
March	4,956	$1,090,372	4,992	$1,015,058
April	5,555	$1,106,424	5,916	$1,051,878
May	6,195	$1,120,716	6,544	$1,069,716
June	6,191	$1,101,854	6,730	$1,058,789
October	6,083	$1,052,539	5,603	$1,024,108
November	4,963	$1,039,575	not yet out	not yet out
December	3,667	$1,006,141	not yet out	not yet out

Source: TRREB Market Watch, October 2026, monthly history table (revised figures, all TRREB areas, all home types). July to September omitted for space.

In 2026, the January average was about 9% below May. In 2025, December was about 10% below May. But an average mixes condos with detached houses. In winter, fewer large detached homes sell, so the average drops even if a typical home’s value barely moves. Do not expect the same house to be 10% cheaper in January than in May.

The real winter advantage is softer: sellers who list in December or January often need to sell, and their homes sit longer. That gives you time to think and room to ask for a better price or better terms.

How do Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Vaughan and Markham compare in winter?

The pattern is the same across the GTA. These are TRREB’s city-level figures for December 2025 and May 2026.

City	Active listings Dec / May	Days on market Dec / May	Sold-to-list Dec / May
City of Toronto	6,456 / 9,916	41 / 26	97% / 99%
Mississauga	1,555 / 2,465	40 / 30	96% / 97%
Brampton	1,499 / 2,133	35 / 27	97% / 99%
Vaughan	914 / 1,330	43 / 27	96% / 98%
Markham	725 / 1,166	36 / 27	97% / 99%

Source: TRREB Market Watch, December 2025 and May 2026, all home types. Days on market are average listing days on market.

In every city, December homes sold for one to two points less against their list price and stayed on the market 8 to 16 days longer. On a $900,000 home, two points is about $18,000 of negotiating room, though every home is different.

The slower pace is not only seasonal. In TRREB MLS data via REALM for January to October, average days on market for detached homes rose from 22 in 2024 to 30 in 2026 in Brampton, and from 19 to 29 in Markham. Buyers have had more time all year, and winter adds to it.

Free tool — what can you actually afford?

What are the downsides of buying a house in winter?

Less choice. If you need four bedrooms in one school zone, there may be only a few, or none, in a given month.
Hidden exterior problems. Snow covers the roof, grading, driveway cracks and the garden. You are buying some things on trust.
Holiday slowdowns. Many lawyers, lenders, appraisers and movers run short-staffed or close over the holidays. Build extra days into your timeline.
Moving in the cold. Ice, short days and storms can delay a move. Book movers early and plan a backup date.
Rate changes. The Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.50% on 28 October 2026 and said more increases could be needed. A rate move during your search changes what you can borrow.

How do I get a good home inspection in winter?

A winter inspection is still worth doing, and it can show things a summer inspection misses. The American Society of Home Inspectors notes that cold weather is a good time to find drafts and air leaks, see condensation problems on windows, watch the furnace working under real load, and check pipes at risk of freezing. Heavy snow can also reveal a sagging roof.

It also lists the limits. Inspectors usually cannot safely walk a snowy or icy roof, so they look from the ground. Air conditioning should not be run for long below about 60°F (about 16°C), so it often cannot be tested. Drainage and gutters may not be testable until the thaw.

To cover the gaps:

Ask the seller for the age of the roof, furnace and air conditioner, and any receipts.
Ask for the last 12 months of gas and electricity bills to judge running costs.
Have the inspector check the attic for frost, moisture or stains.
Look at ceilings under the roof edges and around skylights for water marks.
Ask your lawyer about a clause where the seller confirms the air conditioner is in working order on closing.

My guide to home inspection costs in Ontario covers what to expect to pay and what a standard inspection includes.

Watch out

Do not waive the inspection just because the house looks fine under snow. In winter you are already seeing less of the home. If a seller will not allow an inspection condition, at least book a pre-offer inspection, and ask the inspector to write down clearly what could not be checked because of the weather.

How do interest rates affect a winter purchase in 2027?

As of November 2026, the Bank of Canada’s policy rate is 2.50%, and the big banks’ prime rate is 4.70%. The Bank’s next decision is 9 December 2026, then 27 January, 3 March and 28 April 2027. Governor Macklem said a further increase could be needed, and markets were pricing some chance of a December hike. These are not predictions you should bet on.

What you can control is your pre-approval. RBC, for example, says it guarantees a pre-approved rate for up to 120 days. A pre-approval taken in early December can cover a search through to early spring. You will still qualify at the stress test rate, which is the higher of 5.25% or your contract rate plus two points.

My breakdown of the October 2026 rate hike explains what it means for monthly payments.

How do I negotiate a better price in winter?

Check the days on market. A home listed in October and still for sale in January has a seller who has watched the market go quiet.
Look at price history. A price cut, or a terminated and relisted listing, is a sign of room to move.
Keep your conditions. With fewer competing buyers, sellers are more likely to accept financing and inspection conditions.
Trade on closing date. A seller who has already bought may value a quick or a specific closing date more than a few thousand dollars.
Price against recent sales, not against last spring’s asking prices.

If you are on the other side of this and thinking about selling first, my guide on whether to sell in December or wait for spring shows the seller’s view of the same numbers.

My take

My view, kept cautious: in a flat market like this one, winter is a good time for prepared buyers, not a magic discount. The buyers I see do best in December and January are the ones who already know their budget and their must-haves, get the pre-approval done first, and are ready to move on the right house when it appears. If nothing fits, keep your pre-approval current and wait for the February and March listings. Waiting for spring is fine; going into spring unprepared is the expensive part.

What to do next

Get a mortgage pre-approval with a rate hold before mid-December.
Write down your must-haves and your nice-to-haves, so you can judge a thin winter market quickly.
Use the affordability tool on this page to set a price ceiling that still works if rates rise again.
Budget for closing costs early; my buyer closing costs guide lists each one.
Line up an inspector and a real estate lawyer now, before the holiday slowdown.

Need help with this? Talk to me.

I’m Jatin Dua, Broker of Record at RE/MAX Quantum Realty, and I’m the best agent to do this kind of work for you in Toronto and across the GTA. Over $100 million in GTA sales and 100+ families helped sell. Feel free to contact me any time: call or text 833-330-1925 or email [email protected].

Book a free call Call 833-330-1925

Frequently asked questions

Is winter a good time to buy a house in Toronto?

Often yes, for prepared buyers. In December 2025, homes across the TRREB area sat for 41 days on average and sold at 97% of list price, against 27 days and 98% in May 2026. The City of Toronto showed the same pattern. You get less choice in winter, but less competition and more time to negotiate. It works best if you already have a pre-approval and a clear budget.

Are house prices lower in December in the GTA?

Average prices are usually lower. TRREB’s December 2025 average was $1,006,141, about 10% below May 2025. But winter averages drop partly because fewer expensive detached homes sell, not only because each home is cheaper. Expect more room to negotiate on a given house in winter, rather than an automatic 10% discount. Price your offer against recent sales of similar homes.

Is it a good idea to buy a house in January in Ontario?

It can be. January is usually the quietest month for sales in the GTA: TRREB reported just 3,044 sales in January 2026, the lowest month of the year so far. Fewer buyers means sellers who list then are often motivated. The downside is a smaller choice of homes. If the right one appears, a January buyer often faces little competition.

Can you get a home inspection in winter in Ontario?

Yes. A winter inspection can still check the furnace under real load, look for drafts and window condensation, and check pipes and the attic. The limits are that inspectors usually cannot walk a snowy roof, air conditioning often cannot be tested in the cold, and drainage may not be visible until spring. Ask the seller for receipts and the ages of the roof, furnace and air conditioner.

How long does a mortgage pre-approval rate hold last in Canada?

It depends on the lender. RBC, for example, says it guarantees a pre-approved rate for up to 120 days. A pre-approval taken in early December 2026 can therefore cover a search into early spring 2027. You still need full approval once you buy, and you must qualify at the stress test rate, the higher of 5.25% or your rate plus two points.

Do sellers accept lower offers in winter in the GTA?

Often they accept lower offers relative to the list price. In December 2025, TRREB’s average sold-to-list ratio was 97% across all areas, against 98% in May 2026, and homes stayed on the market about two weeks longer. In Vaughan and Mississauga the December ratio was 96%. Sellers in winter are often motivated, but each home and seller is different.

When is the Bank of Canada’s next rate decision?

The Bank of Canada’s next decision is on 9 December 2026. Its 2027 schedule starts with 27 January, 3 March and 28 April 2027. As of November 2026 the policy rate is 2.50% after a hike on 28 October 2026, and the Governor said a further increase could be needed. Rate changes affect variable mortgages and what lenders will approve, so check the date before you make an offer.

Is it better to buy a house in winter or spring in the GTA?

It depends on what you value more: choice or leverage. Spring brings far more listings; May 2026 had 17,698 new listings across the TRREB area against 5,299 in December 2025. Winter brings fewer rival buyers, slower sales and slightly lower sold-to-list ratios. If you are flexible and ready, winter often gives better terms. If you need a specific home, spring gives more options.

What should I check when buying a house with snow on the roof?

Ask the seller how old the roof is and whether they have the receipt, and look for water stains on ceilings and around skylights. Have the home inspector check the attic for frost or moisture, and look at the roof from the ground or with binoculars. Ask your lawyer whether the seller can confirm in the agreement that the roof does not leak to their knowledge.

Buying a House in Winter in the GTA (2027): Is It a Good Idea?