Published 2 November 2026 · By Jatin Dua, Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty
Prices in Pickering and Ajax are lower than two years ago, but homes still sell close to asking. From January to October 2026 the median detached house sold for $1,039,999 in Pickering, down 8.0%, and $925,000 in Ajax, down 4.2%. Both towns had under four months of inventory in October, and no one forecasts a quick rebound in 2027.
This is for homeowners and buyers in Pickering and Ajax who want real sold prices, not asking prices, before making a move in 2027. You will get two years of medians for every home type, how tight each market was in October 2026, what is being built, and what the forecasters and I expect next.
What is the Pickering and Ajax housing market like heading into 2027?
Prices are lower than they were two years ago, but homes in both towns still sell close to asking. Across all home types, TRREB reports a year-to-date median sale price of $850,000 in Pickering and $832,000 in Ajax for January to October 2026. Buyers paid an average of 99% of the list price in both towns over that period.
Fewer homes are changing hands, though. Adding up the five main home types in REALM, sales from January to October 2026 were down 5.4% in Pickering and 12.1% in Ajax compared with the same months of 2025. Buyers are price-sensitive and slow to commit, but there is no flood of listings.
I covered all of Durham Region in my Durham housing market 2027 overview. This post goes deeper on these two lakeshore towns: every home type, the two-year change, and October inventory.
How much are houses in Pickering in 2026?
The median detached house in Pickering sold for $1,039,999 from January to October 2026. That is 8.0% less than in 2025 and 12.6% less than in 2024. The median is the middle sale, so a handful of very expensive homes cannot pull it up the way they can pull up an average.
| Pickering home type | Median 2024 | Median 2025 | Median 2026 | 1-year change | 2-year change | Sales 2026 (vs 2025) | Avg days on market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | $1,190,000 | $1,130,000 | $1,039,999 | -8.0% | -12.6% | 546 (-0.2%) | 26 |
| Semi-detached | $903,000 | $856,000 | $826,499 | -3.4% | -8.5% | 68 (-16.0%) | 19 |
| Freehold townhouse | $895,000 | $850,000 | $789,000 | -7.2% | -11.8% | 155 (+6.9%) | 27 |
| Condo townhouse | $690,000 | $650,000 | $608,000 | -6.5% | -11.9% | 146 (-5.2%) | 32 |
| Condo apartment | $569,450 | $544,250 | $470,000 | -13.6% | -17.5% | 117 (-28.7%) | 33 |
Source: TRREB MLS data via REALM, January to October of 2024, 2025 and 2026. Median sold price and average days on market for the year to date, city-wide. Not a forecast.
Three things stand out to me:
- Detached buyers did not leave. Pickering sold 546 detached homes, almost exactly the 547 it sold in 2025. Buyers stayed; they just paid less.
- Freehold townhouses picked up. Sales rose 6.9% even as the median fell 7.2%. At $789,000, a freehold town is now the entry point for many families moving from Toronto.
- Condo apartments took the biggest hit. The median is down 17.5% in two years and sales fell 28.7%. Owners selling a condo here need to price from today’s sales, not 2024’s.
How much are houses in Ajax in 2026?
The median detached house in Ajax sold for $925,000 from January to October 2026, down 4.2% from 2025. That is a smaller one-year drop than Pickering, Whitby or Oshawa saw, but it is still 11.9% below 2024.
| Ajax home type | Median 2024 | Median 2025 | Median 2026 | 1-year change | 2-year change | Sales 2026 (vs 2025) | Avg days on market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | $1,050,000 | $966,000 | $925,000 | -4.2% | -11.9% | 561 (-8.8%) | 23 |
| Semi-detached | $860,000 | $838,750 | $810,000 | -3.4% | -5.8% | 53 (-36.9%) | 22 |
| Freehold townhouse | $849,000 | $808,000 | $750,000 | -7.2% | -11.7% | 136 (-20.9%) | 27 |
| Condo townhouse | $731,500 | $662,500 | $625,000 | -5.7% | -14.6% | 50 (+8.7%) | 27 |
| Condo apartment | $535,000 | $509,000 | $437,500 | -14.0% | -18.2% | 52 (0.0%) | 38 |
Source: TRREB MLS data via REALM, January to October of 2024, 2025 and 2026. City-wide medians. Semis, condo townhouses and condo apartments have small sales counts, so a few sales can move the median.
Ajax is a detached-home town. Detached houses made up about two of every three sales in this table. Detached homes also sold fastest, in 23 days on average. Semi-detached sales fell by more than a third, but with only 53 sales that tells you more about how few semis came up for sale than about demand. Condo apartments are the cheapest way into Ajax, with a $437,500 median.
If you are comparing the two towns directly, my Pickering vs Ajax comparison covers commute and taxes side by side.
Is Pickering or Ajax a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?
Neither town is a clear buyer’s market. Both had fewer than four months of inventory in October 2026, tighter than the GTA as a whole.
| October 2026, all home types | Pickering | Ajax | Durham Region | All TRREB areas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 93 | 74 | 589 | 5,603 |
| Median price | $784,990 | $812,750 | $740,000 | $860,000 |
| New listings | 285 | 200 | 1,700 | 14,173 |
| Active listings | 421 | 304 | 2,619 | 25,098 |
| Months of inventory (12-month trend) | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 4.6 |
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio (trend) | 40.1% | 43.5% | 40.6% | 37.9% |
| Sold price vs list price | 98% | 97% | 98% | 97% |
| Average days on market | 27 | 30 | 29 | 31 |
Source: TRREB Market Watch, October 2026. Months of inventory and the sales-to-new-listings ratio are 12-month moving averages.
Months of inventory is roughly how long it would take to sell every active listing at the recent pace of sales. The sales-to-new-listings ratio compares sales to fresh listings. The higher it is, the faster new listings are being snapped up. Pickering and Ajax both sit in the low 40s, stronger than the GTA’s 37.9%.
For detached homes alone, Pickering had 46 October sales at a $940,000 median and Ajax had 59 at an $846,000 median, both at 97% of list price. One month is a small sample, so I use it as a temperature check, not a price guide.
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What are the benchmark home prices in Pickering and Ajax?
TRREB’s MLS Home Price Index estimates the price of a typical home with set features, so it moves less than a median when the mix of sales changes. Here is where it stood in October 2026:
| October 2026 benchmark | Pickering | Change vs Oct 2025 | Ajax | Change vs Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite (all types) | $857,000 | -3.08% | $826,900 | -5.35% |
| Single-family detached | $1,042,600 | -4.81% | $907,000 | -5.65% |
| Single-family attached | $773,000 | -3.11% | $747,100 | -4.71% |
| Townhouse | $600,100 | -1.39% | $618,300 | -3.20% |
| Apartment | $472,100 | -4.55% | $443,500 | -5.04% |
Source: TRREB Market Watch, October 2026, MLS Home Price Index.
Pickering’s composite benchmark fell 3.08% in a year, less than the 5.11% drop for Durham Region as a whole and the 4.28% drop across all TRREB areas. Ajax fell slightly more than the Durham average. In both towns, townhouses held their value best.
Which neighbourhoods make up Pickering and Ajax?
TRREB splits each town into communities for its quarterly reports. Knowing which one a home sits in helps you pull the right sold comparables.
- Pickering: Amberlea, Bay Ridges, Brock Ridge, Duffin Heights, Dunbarton, Highbush, Liverpool, Rosebank, Rouge Park, Rougemount, Rural Pickering, Town Centre, Village East, West Shore and Woodlands, plus the Brock Industrial area.
- Ajax: Central, Central East, Central West, Northeast Ajax, Northwest Ajax, South East and South West.
Prices vary a lot between these areas, from lakeside streets to newer subdivisions north of Taunton Road. I do not quote community-level prices here because quarterly samples are small, but I walk through what each area is like in my guide to Pickering’s best neighbourhoods.
What is being built in Pickering and Ajax?
Most new supply in these two towns comes from three places:
- Seaton, north Pickering. The City says Seaton covers more than 7,000 acres, over half of it kept as open space, and is planned for about 61,000 residents, with a long-term target of 70,000. School boards have planned new elementary schools there, but the City warns that new schools depend on provincial funding, so children may attend schools outside the neighbourhood at first.
- Pickering City Centre. CentreCourt is redeveloping the mall lands near Kingston Road and Glenanna Road. Construction on the first block, two condo towers, began in September 2025, and the City describes the whole project as a multi-year, phased change that adds a park, condos, shops and restaurants.
- Near Ajax GO. A proposal filed in December 2025 calls for five 60-storey towers with 3,188 condo units at 275 Westney Road South, according to UrbanToronto. It was still going through Official Plan and zoning applications and is not approved.
My view: new condo towers will give resale condo buyers more choice for years, which is one more reason I expect condo apartment prices to recover slower than houses.
What is the Pickering and Ajax housing forecast for 2027?
I could not find a published 2027 price forecast for Pickering or Ajax on their own. Here is what the main sources said as of November 2026:
- Bank of Canada (28 October 2026): raised its policy rate to 2.50%, said housing is expected to stay relatively weak, and projected economic growth of 2% in 2027. The next decision is on 9 December 2026.
- TRREB (4 November 2026): GTA sales were down 7.9% in October and the composite benchmark was down 4.3% year over year. TRREB’s president said a Canada-U.S. trade deal and an end to the Middle East conflict could renew interest in buying as 2027 begins.
- Borrowing costs: the big banks raised prime to 4.70% on 29 October 2026, so variable-rate payments went up.
This is my cautious view, not a prediction. Pickering and Ajax are where many Toronto families land when they want a house near a GO station, so I think they would be among the first places to feel a recovery if confidence returns. But with rates rising again, I would not plan on 2027 prices getting back to 2024 levels. If I were selling, I would price at today’s sold numbers. If I were buying, I would focus on the right home and a payment I can carry, not on timing the bottom.
Should you buy or sell in Pickering or Ajax in 2027?
That depends more on your own plans than on the market. A few practical points:
- Moving up locally: detached prices fell more in dollars than townhouse prices, so the gap between a town and a detached home is smaller than it was in 2024.
- Selling a condo apartment: expect 33 to 38 days on market and buyers who know prices have fallen. Price it right the first week.
- Buying a resale house: homes still sell at 97% to 99% of asking on average, so lowball offers rarely work on well-priced listings. The negotiating room is on homes that have sat.
- Buying new in Seaton: budget for closing costs, and ask the builder and your lawyer how property tax will be billed until MPAC assesses the new home.
Do not set your asking price from what a neighbour got in 2024. Detached medians are about 12% lower in both towns than two years ago, and condo apartments are down 17% to 18%. An overpriced listing sits, and buyers in a market with three to four months of inventory will simply wait for the price cut.
For a closer look at what your own home might fetch, see my Pickering and Ajax house value guide or, for condo owners, my Pickering and Ajax condo value guide.
What to do next
- Find which TRREB community your home sits in and pull sold prices for your home type from the last 90 days.
- Use the estimator on this page for a starting range, then ask for a full comparative market analysis.
- Check your mortgage renewal date and penalty before choosing when to sell.
- If you are buying, get a written pre-approval at today’s rates before you book showings.
- Watch the Bank of Canada’s 9 December 2026 rate decision and the one after it before locking in a plan.
Need help with this? Talk to me.
I’m Jatin Dua, Broker of Record at RE/MAX Quantum Realty, and I’m the best agent to do this kind of work for you in Toronto and across the GTA. Over $100 million in GTA sales and 100+ families helped sell. Feel free to contact me any time: call or text 833-330-1925 or email [email protected].
Frequently asked questions
Are house prices going down in Pickering?
Yes. The median detached house in Pickering sold for $1,039,999 from January to October 2026, down 8.0% from 2025 and 12.6% from 2024, according to TRREB MLS data via REALM. Condo apartments fell further, to a $470,000 median, down 13.6% in a year. TRREB’s October 2026 benchmark for all Pickering home types was down 3.08% year over year.
What is the average house price in Ajax in 2026?
The average sale price for all home types in Ajax was $871,313 from January to October 2026, according to TRREB’s October 2026 Market Watch, with a median of $832,000. For detached houses alone, the median was $925,000, down 4.2% from 2025. Townhouses and condos cost less, with a $437,500 condo apartment median.
Will house prices go up in Pickering and Ajax in 2027?
No one has published a 2027 price forecast for Pickering or Ajax on their own. The Bank of Canada expects housing to stay relatively weak after raising its rate to 2.50% in October 2026, and TRREB says a trade deal and calmer inflation could bring buyers back in 2027. My own cautious view is that a return to 2024 prices in 2027 is unlikely.
Is Pickering more expensive than Ajax?
Yes, for detached houses. The median detached home sold for $1,039,999 in Pickering and $925,000 in Ajax from January to October 2026, a gap of about $115,000. For all home types the gap is small: TRREB’s year-to-date median was $850,000 in Pickering and $832,000 in Ajax. Ajax condo apartments were also cheaper, at a $437,500 median.
How fast are houses selling in Ajax?
Detached houses in Ajax sold in 23 days on average from January to October 2026, according to TRREB MLS data via REALM. Condo apartments were slower, at 38 days. In October 2026 alone, homes of all types sold in an average of 30 days at 97% of list price, and Ajax had 3.1 months of inventory.
Is Pickering a buyer’s market in late 2026?
Not clearly. Pickering had 3.8 months of inventory and a 40.1% sales-to-new-listings ratio in October 2026, according to TRREB, which is a little tighter than the GTA as a whole. Homes sold at 98% of list price on average. Buyers do have more room to negotiate than in 2024, especially on condo apartments and homes that have sat unsold.
How much is a condo in Pickering in 2026?
The median condo apartment in Pickering sold for $470,000 from January to October 2026, down 13.6% from 2025 and 17.5% from 2024, according to TRREB MLS data via REALM. Condo townhouses had a $608,000 median. Condo apartments took 33 days to sell on average, and sales fell 28.7% year over year.
How big will Seaton in Pickering be?
The City of Pickering says Seaton covers more than 7,000 acres, with over half kept as open space, and is planned for about 61,000 residents, with a long-term target of 70,000. Two elementary school sites are approved in south Seaton, but the City notes that new schools depend on provincial funding, so some children may first attend schools outside the area.
How much is a townhouse in Ajax in 2026?
The median freehold townhouse in Ajax sold for $750,000 from January to October 2026, down 7.2% from 2025, according to TRREB MLS data via REALM. Condo townhouses had a $625,000 median, down 5.7%. Both sold in about 27 days on average. Freehold townhouse sales fell 20.9%, so fewer came up for sale.
Should I sell my house in Pickering now or wait until 2027?
That depends on your next move more than on the market. Pickering detached prices fell 8.0% in 2026, but homes still sold at 98% to 99% of list price, and no one forecasts a quick rebound in 2027. If you are buying again locally, prices on both sides have fallen. If you hold a variable-rate mortgage, waiting now costs more interest.
Sources
- TRREB Market Watch, October 2026
- TRREB news release: Inflation and Borrowing Costs Impacted October GTA Real Estate Market (4 Nov 2026)
- TRREB Community Housing Market Report: Pickering, Q2 2026
- TRREB Community Housing Market Report: Ajax, Q2 2026
- City of Pickering: Seaton Community
- City of Pickering: City Centre Vision and construction updates
- UrbanToronto: Five 60-storey towers proposed near Ajax GO station (Feb 2026)
- Bank of Canada: policy rate raised to 2.5% (28 Oct 2026)
Related reading
- GTA Housing Market Forecast 2027: City-by-City Numbers
- Mississauga Housing Market 2027: Prices, Sales and What to Expect
- Brampton Housing Market 2027: Prices, Sales and What to Expect
- Markham and Richmond Hill Housing Market 2027
About the author — Jatin Dua, Toronto and GTA real estate broker
I am Jatin Dua, Broker of Record and co-founder of RE/MAX Quantum Realty Inc., Brokerage, Unit 101, 799 The Queensway, Toronto. I work with buyers and sellers across Toronto and the GTA and have helped more than 100 families sell. Four-plus years of active GTA transactions and over $100 million in sales volume.
Reach me at [email protected] or 833-330-1925, or book a call.