Published 2 November 2026 · By Jatin Dua, Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty
Forecasters expect Ontario home prices to be roughly flat to slightly higher in 2027, with sales rising. TD sees Ontario prices up 0.6%, and CMHC’s baseline has average prices rising about 1% to 3% from 2026, from about $1,050,000 in Toronto to $550,000 in Windsor. Condos remain the weakest segment, and all forecasts predate the October 2026 rate hike.
This forecast is for buyers, sellers and investors comparing Ontario’s housing markets for 2027, from Toronto and the rest of the GTA to Hamilton, Ottawa, Kitchener-Waterloo, London, Niagara and Windsor. It brings together the published forecasts and the latest 2026 sales data, region by region, with the limits of each number spelled out.
What is the Ontario real estate market forecast for 2027?
Flat to slightly higher prices and noticeably more sales. That is the common message from the three main forecasters:
- TD Economics (September 2026): Ontario average prices down 2.6% in 2026, then up 0.6% in 2027, with home sales up 7.4% in 2027.
- CREA (October 2026): a 3% dip in Ontario’s average price in 2026, and national sales up 4.4% with prices up 1.2% in 2027.
- CMHC (Summer 2026 outlook): prices declining through 2026 and growing only modestly after, with Ontario among the weakest regions because of affordability, slower population growth and more supply.
CMHC also publishes city-level numbers. Here is its baseline for every Ontario market it covers.
| Census metro area | 2025 average price (actual) | 2026 forecast | 2027 forecast | 2027 vs 2026 | 2027 sales vs 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | $1,067,846 | $1,020,000 | $1,050,000 | +2.9% | +14.7% |
| Ottawa | $709,111 | $693,000 | $710,000 | +2.5% | +0.9% |
| Oshawa | $874,549 | $820,000 | $836,000 | +2.0% | +6.2% |
| Hamilton | $840,331 | $810,000 | $825,000 | +1.9% | +9.8% |
| Windsor | $559,168 | $540,000 | $550,000 | +1.9% | +7.4% |
| London | $637,686 | $615,000 | $626,000 | +1.8% | +3.5% |
| Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo | $754,842 | $730,000 | $740,000 | +1.4% | +12.8% |
| St. Catharines-Niagara | $668,349 | $633,000 | $640,000 | +1.1% | +2.6% |
Source: CMHC Summer Update, 2026 Housing Market Outlook, baseline scenario, MLS average prices and sales, based on information to 23 June 2026. CMHC’s Toronto and Oshawa areas are census metropolitan areas and do not match TRREB’s boundaries.
The most important caveat: CMHC’s numbers use data to June 2026, and TD assumed no rate hikes through 2027. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50% on 28 October 2026. Read every forecast here as a best-case baseline, not a promise.
How did the GTA regions do in 2026?
Prices fell in every GTA region in the first ten months of 2026, by roughly 5% to 8% at the median. Sales were mixed: York and Peel held steady while Durham fell sharply.
| Region (TRREB) | Sales Jan to Oct 2026 | Change vs 2025 | Median price Jan to Oct 2026 | Change vs 2025 | Months of inventory, Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| City of Toronto | 19,648 | -1.5% | $820,000 | -5.5% | 4.6 |
| Peel Region | 9,300 | +0.3% | $855,000 | -6.0% | 4.9 |
| York Region | 9,524 | +2.7% | $1,060,000 | -7.7% | 5.0 |
| Halton Region | 5,895 | -5.1% | $1,000,000 | -4.8% | 4.2 |
| Durham Region | 6,307 | -10.8% | $787,000 | -5.2% | 3.6 |
| All TRREB areas | 52,694 | -2.1% | $870,000 | -5.9% | 4.6 |
Source: TRREB Market Watch, October 2026 and October 2025, year-to-date tables, all home types. Months of inventory is TRREB’s trend figure for October 2026.
What is the forecast for Toronto and the GTA in 2027?
CMHC’s baseline has the Toronto-area average price rising from about $1,020,000 in 2026 to $1,050,000 in 2027, with sales up sharply as buyers who waited return. That would still leave the area’s average below 2025’s $1,067,846. In October 2026 the GTA average was $1,024,108, down 2.7% from a year earlier, and homes sold for 97% of list price on average.
Within the GTA, home type matters more than region. Here is what TRREB MLS data via REALM shows for January to October 2026 compared with the same months of 2025, by municipality:
City of Toronto
Semis and towns in central and east-end districts stayed the most competitive. Downtown condo apartments fell more modestly than in the suburbs, with the median in district C01 down 6.6% to $600,000. My Toronto housing market 2027 post breaks this down by district.
Peel Region
Brampton’s detached median fell 8.9% to $950,000 and Mississauga’s 5.8% to $1,225,000. Condo apartments fell 12.6% in Brampton and 9.3% in Mississauga. See the Mississauga 2027 outlook.
York Region
York had the largest median drop among GTA regions. Detached medians fell 8.9% in Richmond Hill, 6.5% in Markham and 5.0% in Vaughan, and Markham condo apartments fell 13.2%.
Halton Region
Halton held up best for detached homes: Burlington’s median was flat at $1,249,750 and Oakville’s dipped 3.0% to $1,625,000. Milton fell further, 6.6%. More in my Halton 2027 post.
Durham Region
Durham had the tightest supply in October at 3.6 months, but sales fell more than anywhere else in the GTA. Oshawa’s detached median fell 8.8% to $730,000. CMHC’s Oshawa forecast calls for a 2.0% price rise in 2027. See my Durham 2027 outlook.
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What is the Hamilton real estate forecast for 2027?
CMHC expects the Hamilton area’s average price to go from $840,331 in 2025 to about $810,000 in 2026 and $825,000 in 2027, with sales rising nearly 10% over two years. On TRREB’s MLS System, Hamilton’s detached median fell 5.5% to $736,750 in January to October 2026, and condo apartments fell 9.5% to $380,000, with an average of 57 days on market. These figures cover only Hamilton sales recorded on TRREB’s system, not every sale in the city.
The risk is jobs. Statistics Canada reported in October 2026 that Hamilton was one of three Southern Ontario cities, with Oshawa and Windsor, where the share of people in households facing financial difficulty was highest, and where unemployment was above the national average.
What is the Ottawa real estate forecast for 2027?
Ottawa has held its value better than the GTA, but it faces its own risk. The Ottawa Real Estate Board reported 11,335 sales in the first ten months of 2026, down 7.3%. In October the average price was $678,512, down 4.5% year over year, while the composite benchmark price of $616,900 was down only 1.3%. Single-family benchmarks were nearly flat, down 0.8%, while apartments fell 5.3% and had 7.4 months of inventory.
CMHC’s baseline has Ottawa’s average price back to about $710,000 in 2027, roughly where it was in 2025. The board itself pointed to employment as the key concern, citing a report of about 15,000 fewer people employed locally since March 2025, linked partly to federal public-service reductions.
What is the forecast for Kitchener-Waterloo, London and Windsor?
These three markets are expected to follow the same pattern as the rest of Ontario: a dip in 2026, a small recovery in 2027.
- Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo: CMHC forecasts an average of about $740,000 in 2027, up 1.4% from its 2026 forecast, with sales up about 13% from 2025. It also expects the rental vacancy rate to reach 4.7% in 2027.
- London: about $626,000 in 2027, up 1.8%, with modest sales growth and vacancy reaching 4.5%.
- Windsor: the most affordable market CMHC covers in Ontario, at about $550,000 in 2027. Windsor’s job market is the main risk, as Statistics Canada placed it among the cities with the highest shares of households facing financial difficulty.
What is the forecast for Niagara in 2027?
CMHC has the St. Catharines-Niagara area with the weakest price recovery in Ontario: an average of about $640,000 in 2027, up just 1.1% from 2026 and still 4.2% below 2025’s $668,349. Sales are forecast to grow only slightly, and CMHC expects the rental vacancy rate to reach 4.6% in 2027. For buyers, that points to a market with plenty of choice and little pressure to rush.
Which Ontario markets look strongest and weakest for 2027?
Based on CMHC’s baseline and the latest local data:
- Strongest price rebound forecast: Toronto (+2.9%) and Ottawa (+2.5%), from 2026 to 2027.
- Biggest sales rebound forecast: Toronto and Kitchener-Waterloo, with sales up roughly 13% to 15% from 2025.
- Weakest: Niagara and Oshawa, which CMHC expects to remain more than 4% below their 2025 average prices in 2027.
- Most pressured home type everywhere: condo apartments, with GTA medians down about 9% to 14% in many municipalities in 2026 and Ottawa apartment inventory at 7.4 months.
A regional average hides big differences. A detached home on a tight street and a condo in a building with 30 listings can sit in the same city and move in opposite directions. Never price or buy based on a regional forecast alone; use recent sales of your exact home type nearby.
What could change the Ontario forecast in 2027?
- Interest rates. The October 2026 hike came after these forecasts. CREA noted in October that markets were pricing in about one percentage point of hikes over the following year, more than its own forecast assumed.
- Jobs. Ontario’s unemployment rate rose to 7.3% in October 2026, above Canada’s 6.7%. A weaker job market would hit Hamilton, Oshawa, Windsor and Ottawa hardest.
- Trade and energy prices. TRREB’s president said in November 2026 that a Canada-US trade deal and a resolution to the Middle East conflict could ease inflation worries and renew interest in buying going into 2027.
- Pent-up demand. TD expects buyers who waited to return, which is why every forecast shows sales rising faster than prices.
For the GTA city-by-city view, see my GTA housing market forecast for 2027.
In my view, 2027 looks like a year of stabilization in most of Ontario, with freehold homes leading and condos lagging. The forecasts agree on direction but not on strength, and all of them were written before the October rate hike. If I were buying, I would focus on areas with low months of inventory for freehold homes and negotiate hard on condos. If I were selling, I would price to the last 90 days of sales in my own neighbourhood, not to a provincial forecast.
What to do next
- Pick your market and home type, and pull the last three to six months of sales and current listings.
- Check the months of inventory for that home type. CREA treats under about 3.6 months as a seller’s market and over about 6.4 as a buyer’s market nationally.
- If buying, get a pre-approval that assumes rates could rise again in 2027.
- If selling, decide whether spring 2027 suits your plans, and prepare the home this winter.
- Use the estimator on this page to see where your home’s value sits today.
Need help with this? Talk to me.
I’m Jatin Dua, Broker of Record at RE/MAX Quantum Realty, and I’m the best agent to do this kind of work for you in Toronto and across the GTA. Over $100 million in GTA sales and 100+ families helped sell. Feel free to contact me any time: call or text 833-330-1925 or email [email protected].
Frequently asked questions
What is the housing market prediction for Ontario in 2027?
Forecasters predict flat to slightly higher Ontario home prices in 2027 and more sales. TD Economics expects a 0.6% rise in Ontario prices and a 7.4% rise in sales after a weak 2026. CMHC’s baseline shows average prices up about 1% to 3% across Ontario cities. These forecasts were made before the October 2026 rate hike.
Will house prices go up in Ontario in 2027?
Only slightly, if the forecasts hold. CMHC expects average prices to rise between about 1.1% in Niagara and 2.9% in the Toronto area from 2026 to 2027. TD expects 0.6% for Ontario overall. Higher interest rates or job losses could keep prices flat or lower, especially for condo apartments.
What is the Toronto real estate forecast for 2027?
CMHC’s baseline forecasts a Toronto-area average price of about $1,050,000 in 2027, up from about $1,020,000 in 2026, with MLS sales rising to about 71,500. In October 2026 the GTA average was $1,024,108, down 2.7% year over year, according to TRREB. The forecast was based on data to June 2026.
What is the Ottawa housing market forecast for 2027?
CMHC forecasts Ottawa’s average price at about $710,000 in 2027, up about 2.5% from its 2026 forecast. In October 2026 Ottawa’s average price was $678,512, down 4.5% year over year, and its benchmark price was down 1.3%. Federal public-service job cuts are the main local risk, according to the Ottawa Real Estate Board.
Is the Hamilton housing market going down in 2027?
CMHC expects Hamilton prices to recover slightly in 2027, to an average of about $825,000 from about $810,000 in 2026. Hamilton’s detached median on TRREB’s MLS System fell 5.5% in the first ten months of 2026, and condo apartments fell 9.5%. Higher local financial stress makes the outlook less certain than the forecast suggests.
Which Ontario city has the best real estate outlook for 2027?
Based on CMHC’s baseline, Toronto and Ottawa have the strongest forecast price gains for 2027, at about 2.9% and 2.5%. Toronto and Kitchener-Waterloo are expected to see the biggest jump in sales. Niagara and Oshawa have the weakest outlook, staying more than 4% below their 2025 average prices.
What is the Kitchener-Waterloo housing market forecast for 2027?
CMHC forecasts an average price of about $740,000 for the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo area in 2027, up 1.4% from its 2026 forecast of $730,000 and still below 2025’s $754,842. Sales are expected to rise about 13% from 2025 levels, and the rental vacancy rate is forecast to reach 4.7%. The forecast uses data to June 2026.
Will condo prices go down in Ontario in 2027?
Condo apartments are the weakest part of the Ontario market heading into 2027. In 2026, GTA condo apartment medians fell about 9% to 14% in many municipalities, based on TRREB MLS data via REALM, and Ottawa apartment benchmarks fell 5.3% with 7.4 months of inventory. More completions and softer rents could keep pressure on in 2027.
Is 2027 a good year to buy a house in Ontario?
2027 may be a reasonable year to buy in Ontario if your job and finances are stable. Prices have already fallen from their peaks, buyers have more choice than in past years, and forecasters expect only small gains. Rates may rise further, so budget for higher payments and buy based on recent local sales, not forecasts.
Sources
- CMHC: Summer Update, 2026 Housing Market Outlook
- TD Economics: Provincial Resale Market Outlook, September 2026
- CREA: Quarterly Forecasts, October 16, 2026
- TRREB Market Watch, October 2026
- TRREB Market Watch, October 2025
- Ottawa Real Estate Board: Ottawa Home Sales Edge Higher in October
- Statistics Canada: Labour Force Survey, October 2026
- CREA: National housing statistics, September 2026 (released October 16, 2026)
Related reading
- GTA Housing Market Forecast 2027: City-by-City Numbers
- Mississauga Housing Market 2027: Prices, Sales and What to Expect
- Brampton Housing Market 2027: Prices, Sales and What to Expect
- Markham and Richmond Hill Housing Market 2027
About the author — Jatin Dua, Toronto and GTA real estate broker
I am Jatin Dua, Broker of Record and co-founder of RE/MAX Quantum Realty Inc., Brokerage, Unit 101, 799 The Queensway, Toronto. I work with buyers and sellers across Toronto and the GTA and have helped more than 100 families sell. Four-plus years of active GTA transactions and over $100 million in sales volume.
Reach me at [email protected] or 833-330-1925, or book a call.