Published 2 November 2026 · By Jatin Dua, Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty
Most forecasts point to a flat to slightly higher 2027 for Ontario home prices: TD expects the Ontario average to rise about 0.6% and CREA sees national prices up 1.2%. Both came before the October 2026 rate hike. Start from what similar homes sold for recently, then plan around a range a few per cent either way.
This is for GTA homeowners who want a realistic idea of what their house could be worth in 2027, whether you plan to sell, refinance or just want to know where you stand. You will get the 2026 price data by city, what the main forecasters expect for 2027, and a simple way to turn all of it into a range for your own home.
How much will my house be worth in 2027?
Nobody can give you an exact 2027 number, and you should be wary of anyone who does. What we can do is start with what your home is worth today, then apply the range the published forecasts point to. For Ontario, that range is roughly flat to slightly higher.
TD Economics expects Ontario’s average home price to rise about 0.6% in 2027 after falling about 2.6% in 2026. CREA expects the national average price to rise 1.2% in 2027. Both forecasts were published before the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50% on 28 October 2026, so I treat them as the hopeful end of the range, not the middle.
In plain terms: if your house would sell for $1,000,000 today, the forecasts suggest something close to $1,000,000 in 2027, give or take a few per cent. The bigger question for most owners is not the GTA average. It is how your type of home, in your city, is behaving right now.
What happened to GTA house prices in 2026?
Prices fell again in most of the GTA. Detached medians from January to October 2026 were lower than the same period of 2025 in nearly every city I track, and in most cities lower than 2024 too. The table shows median sold prices for detached houses.
| Area | 2024 median | 2025 median | 2026 median | Change vs 2025 | Change vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burlington | $1,325,000 | $1,250,000 | $1,249,750 | 0.0% | -5.7% |
| Oakville | $1,763,000 | $1,675,000 | $1,625,000 | -3.0% | -7.8% |
| Mississauga | $1,371,085 | $1,300,000 | $1,225,000 | -5.8% | -10.7% |
| Vaughan | $1,590,000 | $1,490,000 | $1,415,000 | -5.0% | -11.0% |
| Markham | $1,650,000 | $1,518,000 | $1,420,000 | -6.5% | -13.9% |
| Brampton | $1,127,250 | $1,042,750 | $950,000 | -8.9% | -15.7% |
| Richmond Hill | $1,774,400 | $1,630,000 | $1,485,000 | -8.9% | -16.3% |
| Pickering | $1,190,000 | $1,130,000 | $1,039,999 | -8.0% | -12.6% |
| Oshawa | $835,000 | $800,000 | $730,000 | -8.8% | -12.6% |
| Toronto E03 (East York area) | $1,188,000 | $1,200,000 | $1,195,000 | -0.4% | +0.6% |
| Toronto W08 (central Etobicoke) | $1,590,000 | $1,670,000 | $1,540,000 | -7.8% | -3.1% |
| Toronto E04 (Scarborough) | $1,060,000 | $955,000 | $870,000 | -8.9% | -17.9% |
Source: TRREB MLS data via REALM, January to October of each year (median sold price, detached). Toronto rows are TRREB districts, not neighbourhoods.
The October 2026 TRREB Market Watch shows the same direction. GTA sales were 5,603, down 7.9% from October 2025. The average price was $1,024,108, down 2.7%, and the MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark was down 4.3%. One small positive: on a seasonally adjusted basis, both prices and sales edged up from September.
What do the experts predict for GTA home prices in 2027?
Here is what the main forecasters have published. None of them is a promise, and the bank and CREA numbers are not GTA-specific.
| Forecaster | Published | What they expect | Key assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| TD Economics (Ontario) | 29 Sep 2026 | Average price -2.6% in 2026, +0.6% in 2027, +2.8% in 2028; sales up 7.4% in 2027 | Bank of Canada on hold through 2027 and bond yields drifting lower |
| CREA (national) | 16 Oct 2026 | Average price +1.2% in 2027 to $689,909; Ontario about -3% in 2026 | Limited Bank of Canada action over the next year |
| CMHC (national) | Summer 2026 update | Prices decline through 2026, then grow only modestly; Ontario among the weakest | Slow population and income growth |
| Bank of Canada | 28 Oct 2026 | Housing to stay relatively weak; inflation around 3% in 2027 | Further rate increases possible |
Sources: TD Economics Provincial Resale Market Outlook (Sep 2026); CREA quarterly forecast (Oct 2026); CMHC Housing Market Outlook summer update (2026); Bank of Canada rate announcement (28 Oct 2026).
Notice the gap between TD’s assumption and what actually happened. TD assumed the Bank would hold all through 2027. The Bank raised its rate a month later and said another increase could be needed. TRREB’s president said in November that a Canada-U.S. trade deal and an end to the Middle East conflict could renew interest in buying as 2027 begins. Those are two big “ifs”.
How do I estimate what my own house will be worth in 2027?
Use three steps. They take about an hour, and they beat any headline.
- Find today’s value. Look at sales of homes like yours (same type, similar size and lot, same area) from the last three to six months. Ignore asking prices; only sold prices count.
- Check the trend for your home type. Compare your city’s median for your type of home this year with last year, using the table above or the city pages on this site.
- Apply a range, not a single number. Test a mild drop, flat and a mild rise. That gives you a planning range.
| Scenario for 2027 | Change applied | A $1,000,000 home becomes |
|---|---|---|
| Another soft year | -3% | $970,000 |
| Flat | 0% | $1,000,000 |
| TD’s Ontario forecast | +0.6% | $1,006,000 |
| CREA’s national forecast | +1.2% | $1,012,000 |
| Faster recovery | +3% | $1,030,000 |
Illustrative arithmetic only, not a forecast. The +0.6% and +1.2% rows use the TD and CREA figures above.
The spread between the worst and best rows is $60,000 on a $1,000,000 home. That is smaller than the gap most owners see between a well-prepared, well-priced listing and a tired one priced at last year’s number. If you want to compare methods, my guide to online estimates, agent CMAs and bank appraisals explains which number to trust for which decision.
Instant Home Valuation
What’s your home
worth today?
Answer six quick questions and get an instant value range built from current Toronto & GTA sale data — property type, size, condition, lot and location all weighted the way a real pricing conversation weighs them. Takes about ninety seconds.
Reading recent GTA sale data…
Building your estimate
Estimated market value
—
$0–$0
Most likely value $0 · roughly $0 per square foot
What moved the number
Starting from the area baseline for your property type, here’s what each answer added or subtracted.
Market context
Recent local averages for comparison.
—
A range is a starting point.
A strategy is what sells.
This model doesn’t know that your neighbour’s identical semi went $80,000 over asking last month, or which two upgrades actually pay back in your area. That conversation is free and takes twenty minutes.
Which GTA homes are holding their value best heading into 2027?
Detached houses have held up better than condos, and Halton has held up better than York Region. TRREB’s October 2026 benchmark prices show the split clearly.
| Region | Composite benchmark | Change vs Oct 2025 | Detached benchmark | Change vs Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All TRREB areas | $916,400 | -4.28% | $1,194,200 | -4.44% |
| City of Toronto | $908,800 | -3.60% | $1,422,800 | -3.82% |
| Halton Region | $966,000 | -1.08% | $1,327,100 | -0.95% |
| Peel Region | $858,800 | -4.63% | $1,101,300 | -5.21% |
| York Region | $1,071,700 | -6.76% | $1,320,700 | -6.53% |
| Durham Region | $798,100 | -5.11% | $875,700 | -5.07% |
Source: TRREB Market Watch, October 2026, MLS Home Price Index.
Across all TRREB areas, the apartment benchmark fell 7.33% in the year to October, against 4.44% for detached homes. Homes that sell quickly also tend to hold price. In the REALM data, detached homes in Toronto districts such as E03 and W08 averaged about 24 days on market in 2026, while Oakville averaged 33 and Hamilton 38. A short selling time usually means buyers are still competing for that type of home in that area.
If you own a condo, the 2027 picture is different and depends heavily on new supply. I cover that district by district in Are Condo Prices Going Down in Toronto?
What could push GTA house prices up or down in 2027?
Interest rates
The Bank of Canada’s next decision is 9 December 2026. In 2027 it has eight scheduled decisions, starting 27 January. Fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields more than the Bank’s rate, and TRREB’s October report listed the posted five-year rate at 6.19%. Higher borrowing costs cap what buyers can pay.
Listings
Fewer homes are coming to market. October new listings were 14,173, down 11.9% from a year earlier, and active listings were down 10.0%. If sellers keep holding back while buyers slowly return, prices tend to firm. If a wave of listings arrives in spring, they tend to soften.
Policy
Federal Budget 2026 proposes extending the foreign buyer ban on existing homes to 1 January 2029 while exempting new homes. Ontario’s enhanced new-home HST rebate applies to agreements signed on or before 31 March 2027, which could pull some new-home demand into early 2027.
The wider economy
The Bank of Canada expects growth of about 2% in 2027, but says uncertainty around Canada-U.S. trade remains high. Job losses in your area would matter more to your home’s value than any national forecast.
Should I wait until 2027 to sell for a better price?
Only if you have no reason to move now. The forecasts above point to gains of around 1% in 2027, and that is before the October rate hike. On a $1,000,000 house, 1% is $10,000. A year of property tax, insurance, utilities and mortgage interest will usually cost you more than that, so waiting purely for price rarely pays.
Waiting can make sense if your life plans are not set, if your home needs work that would lift its price, or if you can sell in spring rather than winter. I go through the timing question in Is 2027 a Good Time to Sell Your Home in the GTA?, and the city-level forecast in GTA Housing Market Forecast 2027.
My view, and it is only my view: plan for 2027 as a flat year for most GTA houses, and treat any gain as a bonus. Price your home on what similar homes sold for in the last 90 days, not on what a neighbour got in 2024. If you are selling and buying in the same market, a soft market cuts both ways, so focus on the gap between the two prices rather than the sale price alone.
Why might my house be worth more or less than the GTA average in 2027?
Averages hide a lot. Two houses on the same street can move in opposite directions. These are the things that most often push one home above or below the trend:
- Type and lot. Detached homes on usable lots have held value better than condos and many townhouses in 2026.
- Condition. Move-in-ready homes sell faster. In my experience, homes that need a roof, windows or a new kitchen often sell at a discount larger than the cost of the work.
- Local supply. A new subdivision or condo tower nearby adds competition for buyers.
- Price band. Homes under $1.5 million can be bought with an insured mortgage and as little as 5% to 10% down; homes at $1.5 million and above need 20% down, which narrows the buyer pool.
Most of the forecasts in this post were made before the October 2026 rate hike. If the Bank raises rates again on 9 December 2026 or early in 2027, expect forecasters to lower their 2027 numbers. Do not borrow against a hoped-for 2027 price, and do not buy your next home assuming your current one will sell for more next year.
What to do next
- Pull the sold prices of three to five homes like yours from the last 90 days, or ask me for them.
- Check your city’s median for your home type in the table above and note the change since 2025.
- Build a three-number range (a mild drop, flat, a mild rise) and plan around the low number.
- Watch the Bank of Canada decisions on 9 December 2026 and 27 January 2027, and the January TRREB report.
- If you are thinking of selling in spring 2027, get a pricing opinion in January so you have time to prepare the house.
Need help with this? Talk to me.
I’m Jatin Dua, Broker of Record at RE/MAX Quantum Realty, and I’m the best agent to do this kind of work for you in Toronto and across the GTA. Over $100 million in GTA sales and 100+ families helped sell. Feel free to contact me any time: call or text 833-330-1925 or email [email protected].
Frequently asked questions
Will house prices go up in 2027 in Ontario?
Forecasters expect only a small rise in 2027. TD Economics, in September 2026, forecast Ontario’s average home price to rise about 0.6% in 2027 after a 2.6% drop in 2026, and CREA expects national prices to rise 1.2%. Both forecasts came before the Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.50% in October 2026, so the real outcome could be lower.
What is the house price prediction for 2027 in the GTA?
I could not find a published TRREB price forecast for 2027 as of November 2026, and the main forecasts from TD, CREA and CMHC point to flat to modest gains at the provincial or national level. A practical approach is to take your home’s value today and test a range from about 3% lower to 3% higher.
Will house prices drop in 2027 in Toronto?
A further drop in 2027 is possible but not the main forecast. City of Toronto benchmark prices were down 3.6% in the year to October 2026, and the Bank of Canada says more rate increases could be needed. Forecasters such as TD expect Ontario prices to stabilize in 2027, but those forecasts assumed no rate hikes that have since happened.
How much have GTA house prices fallen since 2024?
Detached medians in most GTA cities fell about 6% to 18% from January to October 2024 to the same period of 2026, according to TRREB MLS data via REALM. For example, Brampton fell from $1,127,250 to $950,000 and Markham from $1,650,000 to $1,420,000. Burlington and Toronto’s E03 district held up best.
Is it better to sell my house now or wait until 2027?
For most GTA owners, waiting purely for a higher price is unlikely to pay. Forecasts suggest gains of around 1% in 2027, about $10,000 on a $1,000,000 home, which a year of carrying costs can easily cancel. Waiting makes more sense if you need time to prepare the house or would rather sell in spring 2027.
What will affect home prices in 2027 in the GTA?
Interest rates matter most. The Bank of Canada decides on 9 December 2026 and then eight times in 2027, starting 27 January. Other factors include the number of new listings, the economy and Canada-U.S. trade, and policy changes such as the proposed extension of the foreign buyer ban and the 31 March 2027 deadline for Ontario’s new-home HST rebate.
Which GTA homes are holding their value best?
Detached houses and homes in Halton Region have held value best into late 2026. TRREB’s October 2026 index shows Halton’s detached benchmark down 0.95% from a year earlier, compared with 6.53% in York Region. Across all TRREB areas, apartments fell 7.33% while detached homes fell 4.44%, so condos have been the weakest segment.
How can I find out what my house is worth today in the GTA?
Look at sold prices, not asking prices, for homes of the same type, size and area from the last three to six months. A local agent can pull these from the MLS, and an online estimator gives a quick starting range. For a refinance or a sale, a written comparative market analysis or a bank appraisal is more reliable.
Sources
- TRREB Market Watch, October 2026
- TD Economics: Provincial Resale Market Outlook, September 2026
- CREA quarterly forecasts, October 2026
- CMHC Housing Market Outlook: summer update 2026
- Bank of Canada raises the policy rate to 2.5% (28 October 2026)
- Bank of Canada 2027 schedule for rate announcements
- Budget 2026, Chapter 3 (foreign buyer ban proposal)
- CRA Notice 346: Ontario enhanced new housing rebate
Related reading
- GTA Housing Market Forecast 2027: City-by-City Numbers
- Mississauga Housing Market 2027: Prices, Sales and What to Expect
- Brampton Housing Market 2027: Prices, Sales and What to Expect
- Markham and Richmond Hill Housing Market 2027
About the author — Jatin Dua, Toronto and GTA real estate broker
I am Jatin Dua, Broker of Record and co-founder of RE/MAX Quantum Realty Inc., Brokerage, Unit 101, 799 The Queensway, Toronto. I work with buyers and sellers across Toronto and the GTA and have helped more than 100 families sell. Four-plus years of active GTA transactions and over $100 million in sales volume.
Reach me at [email protected] or 833-330-1925, or book a call.