Too Many Condos Closing in 2027: What It Means for Toronto Buyers and Sellers

By Jatin Dua · Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty · Updated 2 November 2026 · 9 min read — Condo completions fall to 15,825 in 2027, but thousands of finished units are still unsold. Here is what that means for buyers, sellers and rents.

This is for anyone buying, selling or closing on a condo in Toronto and the wider GTA who keeps hearing that “too many condos” are finishing. You will get the real completion numbers for 2025 to 2029, what the surplus is doing to prices and rents right now, and what it means for your next move in 2027.

How many condos are closing in Toronto in 2027?

Fewer than in 2025 or 2026. Urbanation, which has tracked the GTHA condo market since 1981, says scheduled completions drop to 15,825 units in 2027, down from about 20,868 in 2026 and a record 29,077 in 2025. After that, the pipeline thins out fast.

Source: Urbanation Q3-2026 Condominium Market Survey (19 October 2026). GTHA means the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area.

So the headline is a little misleading. The flood of closings peaked in 2025. What makes 2027 feel crowded is not the number of new keys handed over, but the stock of units that are already finished and still unsold, plus investors who closed in 2025 and 2026 and now want out.

Is there a condo glut in Toronto right now?

Yes, in finished new units and in resale listings, though both are starting to ease. Here is what the latest numbers show.

• Unsold finished units. Urbanation counted 5,127 completed and unsold new condos in Q3 2026. That was down 7% from the Q2 record, the first quarterly drop in four years, but still four times the 1,279 units of two years earlier.
• Developer prices. Asking prices for those finished units averaged $1,157 per square foot, 20% below the Q2 2023 peak.
• Bulk sales. Investment groups bought 339 units in bulk in Q3, 45% of all new condo sales, at an average of $763 per square foot. Urbanation says that was about 40% below the original prices in the same buildings.
• Resale. Resale condo prices fell 5.7% over the year to $724 per square foot. The former City of Toronto fell only 2.8%, while the outer 416 fell 7.9% and the 905 fell 9.3%.

TRREB’s October 2026 report tells the same story. Condo apartment sales across the TRREB area were 1,385, down 10.4% from October 2025, and the average price was $621,400, down 5.8%. In the City of Toronto alone there were 5,251 active condo apartment listings against 949 sales that month.

Source: TRREB MLS data via REALM, condo apartments, median sold price, January to October 2024 and 2026. Toronto rows are TRREB districts.

For more district detail, see Are Condo Prices Going Down in Toronto? The 2027 Picture by District.

What happens when your pre-construction condo closes in a falling market?

If you bought a pre-construction unit in 2021 or 2022, it may be scheduled to close in 2027 at a price above what similar units sell for today. This is how closing normally works, and where the risk sits.

Interim occupancy

The Condominium Authority of Ontario explains that a builder can let you occupy the unit before the condo corporation is registered. During this period you do not own the unit yet, and you pay the builder an occupancy fee whether you move in or not. That fee is capped at the total of interest on the unpaid balance, estimated municipal taxes and projected common expenses. It is not paying down a mortgage.

Final closing and the appraisal

Ownership moves to you once the condo is registered. At that point your lender will usually only lend against the value it can support. If the appraisal comes in below your purchase price, you must cover the gap in cash on top of your deposit. I walk through this in interim occupancy, final closing and the appraisal gap.

Assigning before closing

Some buyers try to sell the contract before closing. That depends on your builder’s assignment terms and fees, and in a soft market the price you can get may not cover what you owe. My guide to assignment sales in Toronto covers the HST and fee traps.

What do 2027 condo completions mean for buyers?

Mostly good news, if you are buying to live in the unit.

• More choice and more time. City of Toronto condo apartments averaged 36 days on market in October 2026 and sold for 97% of their list price on average. You can usually negotiate and keep your conditions.
• New units can be cheaper than you think. Builders with unsold finished inventory are competing with resale. Ask what incentives a builder offers on completed units.
• Tax relief on new homes. Ontario’s enhanced new housing rebate covers agreements signed from 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2027. CRA says it refunds the full 8% Ontario part of the HST up to $80,000 on homes up to $1 million, and Ontario’s New Home Affordability Payment can cover up to $50,000 of the federal part. The unit must be your or a relation’s primary home. Confirm eligibility with your lawyer before you sign.
• Check the building, not just the price. In a new building, the first budgets and reserve fund are still untested. Have your lawyer review the status certificate and disclosure documents. My guide to reading a status certificate lists what to look for.

What do 2027 condo completions mean for sellers?

You are competing with investors who closed recently, with builders selling finished units, and with bulk buyers who paid far less per square foot. That sets a ceiling on what most resale units can fetch.

Three things help. First, price against recent sales in your own building and the nearest competing buildings, not against 2022 prices. Second, sell the things a new unit cannot offer: a proven fee history, a healthy reserve fund, a layout people like, owned parking. Third, if you do not need to sell, compare selling with renting the unit out for another year, using real rent numbers rather than hope.

What happens to condo rents when so many units are finishing?

Rents fell through 2025 and early 2026 as new completions hit the rental market, but Urbanation says the GTHA rental market entered a recovery phase in Q3 2026.

• Average condo rents rose 2.4% from Q2 to $3.83 per square foot, about $2,604 for a 681-square-foot unit, and were down only 0.6% from a year earlier.
• Active condo rental listings fell 25% from a year earlier and are down 43% from their peak.
• Condo rents in the former City of Toronto rose 0.7% over the year, the first annual increase in the core since early 2024.

One rule matters for investors. Ontario’s rent increase guideline is 1.9% for 2027, but it does not apply to units first occupied for residential purposes after 15 November 2018. Almost every condo completing now falls under that exemption, so rents on those units are not capped by the guideline. The usual notice rules still apply.

Could Toronto go from a condo glut to a condo shortage?

The pipeline points that way, though timing is uncertain. Urbanation reports only 60 pre-construction condo sales in Q3 2026, the 12th straight quarter of annual declines. Construction starts for the first nine months of 2026 were 2,696 units, 82% below the 10-year average. Units under construction fell to 35,920, the lowest since early 2012.

Urbanation’s president described this as “setting the market up for a significant shortage by the end of the decade.” There is a policy twist too. Urbanation notes that units bought as rentals must be substantially completed by 31 December 2029 to get Ontario’s enhanced HST rebate, which most new high-rise projects cannot meet. That keeps pre-construction investors on the sidelines.

CMHC’s 2026 outlook also expects condo construction in Ontario to stay at historically low levels. A shortage later in the decade does not mean prices rise in 2027. It means the supply pressure that has pushed prices and rents down should ease from 2027 onward.

Should I buy, sell or hold a Toronto condo in 2027?

It depends on why you own it or want it.

• Buying to live in: 2027 looks like a reasonable window. Prices are well below 2024, you can negotiate, and the supply pipeline is shrinking.
• Buying to rent out: run the numbers with today’s rent and today’s mortgage rate. Many units still do not cover their costs at current prices.
• Selling: sell if you have a reason to move. Waiting for 2022 prices to return is a long wait.
• Closing a pre-construction unit: plan the money now, not 60 days before closing.

What to do next

1. If you are closing in 2027, ask your lender now what an appraisal shortfall would mean for you, and how much cash you would need.
2. If you are buying, compare one finished new unit and two resale units in the same area before you make an offer.
3. If you are selling, pull the last 90 days of sales in your building and the two closest competing buildings.
4. If you are an investor, price the rent from current lease data, not last year’s asking rents.
5. Check the 31 March 2027 deadline for Ontario’s enhanced new-home rebate if you are buying new to live in.

Frequently asked questions

Sources

• Urbanation: GTHA new condo sales double from a year ago in Q3 (19 Oct 2026)
• Urbanation: Rental recovery begins in the GTHA (27 Oct 2026)
• TRREB Market Watch, October 2026
• Condominium Authority of Ontario: Pre-construction condos
• Ontario: Residential rent increases and the 2027 guideline
• CRA Notice 346: Ontario enhanced new housing rebate
• CMHC Housing Market Outlook: summer update 2026

Related reading

• GTA Housing Market Forecast 2027: City-by-City Numbers
• Mississauga Housing Market 2027: Prices, Sales and What to Expect
• Brampton Housing Market 2027: Prices, Sales and What to Expect
• Markham and Richmond Hill Housing Market 2027