Published 2 November 2026 · By Jatin Dua, Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty
It can be, for long-term buyers. Toronto condo medians fell again in 2026, for example C01 down 6.6% to $600,000 (January to October), and units take longer to sell, which helps buyers negotiate. But rates rose in October 2026 and forecasts only point to flat to modest gains in 2027, so buy only what you can hold.
This is for first-time buyers, move-up buyers and investors deciding whether 2027 is the year to buy a condo in Toronto or elsewhere in the GTA. You will get the real resale numbers for 2024 to 2026 by Toronto district and GTA city, what is happening with new supply, rents and interest rates, what the forecasters say, and a simple way to decide for yourself.
Is it a good idea to buy a condo in Toronto in 2027?
For the right buyer, it can be. Condo prices across the GTA have fallen for two years in a row, buyers have more choice and more time than they did in 2024, and very few new condos are starting construction. On the other side, the Bank of Canada raised its rate in October 2026, inflation is running above target, and nobody can promise prices have hit bottom.
So the honest answer is: it is a better time to negotiate than it has been in years, but it is only a good idea if you plan to hold for a long time, you can carry the costs comfortably at today’s higher rates, and you pick the right building.
How much have Toronto condo prices dropped?
Here are the median sold prices for condo apartments from January to October of each year, for the busiest Toronto districts and the largest GTA cities.
| Area | Median 2024 | Median 2025 | Median 2026 | 2026 vs 2025 | 2026 vs 2024 | Avg days on market 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto C01 (downtown core) | $680,000 | $642,650 | $600,000 | -6.6% | -11.8% | 37 |
| Toronto C08 (downtown east) | $657,750 | $610,000 | $565,000 | -7.4% | -14.1% | 38 |
| Toronto C10 (Yonge and Eglinton area) | $695,000 | $635,000 | $610,000 | -3.9% | -12.2% | 35 |
| Toronto C14 (North York, Yonge corridor) | $702,000 | $625,000 | $568,500 | -9.0% | -19.0% | 37 |
| Toronto C15 (North York, east) | $640,000 | $565,000 | $526,750 | -6.8% | -17.7% | 39 |
| Toronto W06 (south Etobicoke) | $666,500 | $624,500 | $607,500 | -2.7% | -8.9% | 40 |
| Toronto W08 (central Etobicoke) | $603,500 | $575,000 | $525,000 | -8.7% | -13.0% | 38 |
| Toronto E09 (Scarborough) | $550,000 | $510,000 | $450,000 | -11.8% | -18.2% | 40 |
| Mississauga | $583,000 | $535,000 | $485,000 | -9.3% | -16.8% | 42 |
| Vaughan | $635,000 | $595,000 | $530,000 | -10.9% | -16.5% | 42 |
| Markham | $700,000 | $643,000 | $558,000 | -13.2% | -20.3% | 39 |
| Richmond Hill | $637,500 | $580,000 | $529,250 | -8.8% | -17.0% | 42 |
| Brampton | $540,000 | $475,000 | $415,000 | -12.6% | -23.1% | 53 |
| Oakville | $620,000 | $562,000 | $528,000 | -6.0% | -14.8% | 45 |
| Burlington | $596,000 | $557,500 | $529,950 | -4.9% | -11.1% | 52 |
| Pickering | $569,450 | $544,250 | $470,000 | -13.6% | -17.5% | 33 |
Source: TRREB MLS data via REALM, January–October 2026 vs the same period of 2025 and 2024. Median sold prices and average days on market for condo apartments, year to date. Not a forecast.
Three things stand out. First, every area in this table is lower than in 2024, most by roughly 11% to 20%. Second, the core held up better than the suburbs: C01, C10 and south Etobicoke fell less than Markham, Brampton or Scarborough. Third, condos take longer to sell. Average days on market were about 30 in most of these areas in 2024 and are roughly 35 to 53 now.
Across all 35 Toronto districts in the data, about 9,200 condo apartments sold from January to October 2026, close to 2025’s pace, while active listings were about 9% lower than a year earlier. That suggests sellers are pulling back a little, not that buyers are rushing in.
Why are Toronto condo prices down?
The short version: too many investor units finished at once, and fewer investors want to buy. Urbanation, which tracks the GTA condo market, reported in October 2026 that completed but unsold new condos in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area stood at 5,127 units in the third quarter, still 40% higher than a year earlier. Investment groups bought 339 of those units in bulk at an average discount of 40% to the original selling price.
Resale buyers have been cautious too. TRREB said GTA buyers were in a holding pattern in September 2026, when total home sales were down 9% from a year earlier and the average price was about 5% lower.
Rents also softened through 2024 and 2025 as new towers filled the rental market, which made the investor math harder. Higher rates in late 2026 have added another headwind for buyers who need a mortgage.
Condo Valuation
What’s your condo
worth today?
Three quick steps. Condos don’t price like houses — your floor, your view, and whether you own parking move the number more than anything else. This weighs all of them.
Reading recent condo sales…
Estimated market value
—
$0–$0
Most likely $0 · about $0 per square foot
What moved the number
Starting from what comparable units in your area sell for, here’s what your specifics added or subtracted.
Market context
—
—
Two units, same floor plan,
$90,000 apart.
That happens constantly in condos — one has the parking, the right exposure, or a board that keeps the reserve fund healthy. A model can’t see your status certificate. I can.
What is happening to new condo supply and rents?
This is the part of the story that could matter most for buyers holding into the 2030s. Urbanation reported that only 60 pre-construction condos sold in the third quarter of 2026, and that construction starts for the first nine months of 2026 were 82% below the 10-year average. Scheduled completions fall from 20,868 units in 2026 to 15,825 in 2027, 12,065 in 2028 and 4,213 in 2029. Urbanation’s president said this sets the market up for a significant shortage by the end of the decade.
Rents may be turning. In its October 27, 2026 rental report, Urbanation said average GTA condo rents rose 2.4% from the second quarter to $3.83 per square foot, about $2,604 for a 681-square-foot unit, and were down only 0.6% from a year earlier. Active condo rental listings fell 25% from a year ago, and condo rents in the former City of Toronto rose 0.7% year over year, the first annual gain in the core since early 2024.
A shrinking pipeline does not guarantee higher prices. But it does mean that the flood of new completions that pushed prices and rents down should ease from 2027 onward.
What do the forecasts say about condo prices in 2027?
No major forecaster I found is calling for a big jump or a big drop in 2027. All of these are forecasts, not promises:
- CREA, in its October 16, 2026 forecast, expects the national average price to rise about 1.2% in 2027, and expects Ontario’s 2026 average to finish about 3% lower than 2025.
- CMHC, in its 2026 Housing Market Outlook published in February 2026, said high resale inventory and weak sales would keep Ontario prices muted before they pick up in 2027 and 2028.
- The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50% on October 28, 2026, projects inflation to average about 3% in 2027, and said a further increase could be needed. Its next decision is December 9, 2026.
Most housing forecasts were written before that October hike. Big-bank prime rates rose to 4.70% on October 29, 2026, so variable-rate borrowers are already paying more.
What will it cost to buy a Toronto condo in 2027?
Take the January to October 2026 median in C01 of $600,000 as an example. The minimum down payment in Canada is 5% of the first $500,000 and 10% of the rest, so $35,000. With less than 20% down, you need mortgage default insurance. On a $565,000 loan, that is over 90% of the price, so the CMHC premium is 4.00%, or $22,600, added to the mortgage.
You also have to pass the stress test, which means qualifying at the higher of 5.25% or your contract rate plus two points. Inside Toronto, you pay both the Ontario and Toronto land transfer taxes, with first-time buyer rebates available. Then add monthly maintenance fees, property tax and insurance. My guide to how the stress test works shows how this changes what you can borrow.
A low price can hide a high cost. Before you firm up, have your lawyer review the status certificate for the reserve fund, any special assessment, and fee increases. My guide to reading a status certificate covers what to look for. A cheap unit in a building with a thin reserve fund can cost more than a pricier one in a well-run building.
Who should buy a condo in Toronto in 2027, and who should wait?
Buying can make sense if you
- Plan to live in the unit for at least five to seven years.
- Have a stable income and can carry the mortgage, fees and taxes even if rates rise again.
- Are comparing the cost of owning with a rent you are already paying, and the numbers are close.
- Want to use the current pace to negotiate on price, closing date or conditions.
Waiting may be wiser if you
- Might need to sell within two or three years.
- Are stretching to the edge of your approval.
- Are buying purely as an investment and need positive cash flow from day one. My breakdown of whether an investment condo cash flows shows why that is hard at current prices and rates.
This is my view, not a forecast. I think 2027 is a reasonable year for a long-term end user to buy the right condo, and a harder year for a short-term investor. I would focus on buildings with healthy reserve funds, practical layouts and good transit, and I would use the longer days on market to negotiate. I would not assume prices must rise soon, and I would not buy anything you could not hold through another rate increase. If you are torn between a condo and a house, my guide on whether to buy a condo or a house in Toronto walks through that choice.
What to do next
- Get a mortgage pre-approval at today’s rates and confirm what you qualify for under the stress test.
- Pick two or three districts or cities and compare their 2026 medians and days on market in the table above.
- Price out the full monthly cost, including maintenance fees, property tax and insurance, and compare it with your rent.
- Shortlist buildings and review each status certificate before you firm up an offer.
- Use the slower market to negotiate, and leave room in your budget for another rate increase.
Need help with this? Talk to me.
I’m Jatin Dua, Broker of Record at RE/MAX Quantum Realty, and I’m the best agent to do this kind of work for you in Toronto and across the GTA. Over $100 million in GTA sales and 100+ families helped sell. Feel free to contact me any time: call or text 833-330-1925 or email [email protected].
Frequently asked questions
Is it a good time to buy a condo in Toronto now?
For long-term buyers, it is a better time to negotiate than in recent years. Toronto condo medians fell in most districts in 2026, for example C01 dropped 6.6% to $600,000 for January to October, and units take longer to sell. But the Bank of Canada raised rates in October 2026, so buy only if you can carry the costs comfortably.
Will Toronto condo prices go down in 2027?
No one can say for certain. CREA expects national prices to rise about 1.2% in 2027, and CMHC said in early 2026 that Ontario prices would stay muted before picking up in 2027 and 2028. The Bank of Canada’s October 2026 rate hike, and the chance of more, could keep Toronto condo prices soft longer.
Are Toronto condo prices going to crash?
A crash is not what forecasters expect. Toronto condo medians have already fallen, for example about 12% to 19% in several districts from 2024 to 2026 based on TRREB MLS data via REALM. Forecasts from CREA and CMHC point to flat to modest gains in 2027, though higher rates remain a risk.
Is buying a condo in Toronto a good investment in 2027?
It is harder for investors than for owners who will live in the unit. Urbanation reported GTA condo rents of about $3.83 per square foot in Q3 2026, down 0.6% from a year earlier, while borrowing costs rose after the October 2026 rate hike. Many investor units do not cash flow at today’s prices and rates, so check the numbers carefully.
How long does it take to sell a condo in Toronto in 2026?
Longer than it used to. Average days on market for condo apartments from January to October 2026 were about 35 to 40 days in most Toronto districts, such as 37 in C01 and 40 in south Etobicoke (W06), compared with about 30 in 2024, according to TRREB MLS data via REALM.
What is the median price of a condo in Toronto in 2026?
It depends on the district. From January to October 2026, median condo apartment prices were $600,000 in downtown C01, $565,000 in C08, $610,000 in C10, $525,000 in central Etobicoke (W08) and $450,000 in Scarborough E09, according to TRREB MLS data via REALM. Most were 7% to 12% lower than a year earlier.
How much down payment do I need for a $600,000 condo in Toronto?
At least $35,000. Canada’s minimum down payment is 5% of the first $500,000 and 10% of the remainder, so a $600,000 Toronto condo needs $35,000 down in 2027. With under 20% down, a CMHC insurance premium of 4.00% applies on a loan above 90% of the price, which is $22,600 here, added to the mortgage.
Should I buy a pre-construction or resale condo in Toronto in 2027?
For most buyers, resale is easier to judge in 2027. You can see the finished unit, the building’s status certificate and its real fees. Urbanation reported only 60 GTHA pre-construction sales in Q3 2026 and noted that bulk investors were buying completed unsold units at about 40% below original prices, which shows the risk in buying early.
Why are condo prices falling in Toronto?
Mainly oversupply and fewer investors. Urbanation reported 5,127 completed but unsold new condos in the GTHA in Q3 2026, 40% more than a year earlier, after record completions. Softer rents through 2024 and 2025 and higher borrowing costs in late 2026 also reduced demand. Very low construction starts could tighten supply later in the decade.
Sources
- TRREB Market Watch: GTA REALTORS release September 2026 stats (REALM year-to-date figures are TRREB MLS data)
- Urbanation: GTHA new condo sales double from a year ago in Q3 (October 19, 2026)
- Urbanation: Rental recovery begins in the GTHA as vacancy and incentives fall (October 27, 2026)
- Bank of Canada: Policy rate raised to 2.5% (October 28, 2026)
- CREA: Quarterly housing market forecast (October 16, 2026)
- CMHC: Housing Market Outlook 2026 (February 10, 2026)
Related reading
About the author — Jatin Dua, Toronto and GTA real estate broker
I am Jatin Dua, Broker of Record and co-founder of RE/MAX Quantum Realty Inc., Brokerage, Unit 101, 799 The Queensway, Toronto. I work with buyers and sellers across Toronto and the GTA and have helped more than 100 families sell. Four-plus years of active GTA transactions and over $100 million in sales volume.
Reach me at [email protected] or 833-330-1925, or book a call.