Top 5 GTA Cities Where Condo Prices Fell Most in 2026

By Jatin Dua · Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty · Updated 2 November 2026 · 9 min read — Aurora, Oshawa, Ajax, Clarington and Pickering saw the biggest condo price drops in the GTA in 2026. Here are the numbers.

This guide is for condo owners, buyers and investors who want to know where GTA condo prices dropped the most in 2026, and what that means for 2027. You get the five cities with the biggest falls, the numbers behind each one, why condos are falling faster than houses, and what to do about it.

Are condo prices dropping in the GTA?

Yes, and faster than house prices. From January to October 2026, the median condo apartment price fell compared with the same months of 2025 in every one of the 15 GTA municipalities outside Toronto with a meaningful number of condo sales, according to TRREB MLS data via REALM. Most fell between 9% and 15%. Detached prices fell too, but mostly by 3% to 9%.

The wider market was soft. TRREB reported GTA sales down 9% year over year in September 2026, with the average price across all home types down about 5%. Then on 28 October 2026, the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50%, its first increase in more than three years.

How did I rank the GTA cities where condo prices fell most?

I compared the median condo apartment sale price for January to October 2026 with the same ten months of 2025. A median is the middle sale: half sold for more and half for less.

• GTA only. I included towns and cities in Peel, York, Durham and Halton. Toronto is reported by district, so I cover it separately below.
• At least 40 sales in each year. Small condo markets swing wildly. King’s median fell 14.8%, for example, but on only 19 sales, so I left it out. Fifteen municipalities met the test.
• Apartment-style condos. These rankings are for condo apartments. I mention condo townhouses where they tell a different story.

This is a look back, not a forecast. A city-wide median also hides big gaps between buildings, floors and suite sizes.

1. Aurora: down 14.8%

Aurora had the biggest condo drop in the GTA. The median condo apartment sold for $583,500 from January to October 2026, down 14.8% from $685,000 a year earlier, a fall of $101,500. Only 48 sold, and suites took 45 days on average to sell, up from 38.

There is a catch. Aurora’s 2025 median had actually risen from $652,500 in 2024, so the two-year drop is about 10.6%. In a market this small, a few higher-end sales one year can lift the median, and their absence the next year can pull it down. Aurora’s condo townhouses also fell 15.6%, to $675,000. My Newmarket vs Aurora comparison covers the town in more detail.

2. Oshawa: down 14.3%

Oshawa’s median condo apartment fell 14.3%, to $340,500 from $397,500. Over two years the fall is about 22.8%, from $441,000 in 2024, the steepest two-year drop of the five. Sales slipped to 77 from 89, and suites took 51 days on average to sell, the slowest of any city on this list.

Oshawa now has the lowest condo apartment median of any GTA municipality in the data. For buyers, that is the cheapest way into ownership in the GTA. For sellers, it means patience and sharp pricing.

3. Ajax: down 14.0%

Ajax’s median condo apartment fell 14.0%, to $437,500 from $509,000, and about 18.2% from $535,000 in 2024. Sales held steady at 52 in both years, but suites took longer to sell: 38 days on average, up from 31. Ajax condo townhouses fell far less, by 5.7%, to $625,000.

Ajax has a small condo market made up mostly of older buildings. My guide to what a Pickering or Ajax condo is worth explains how I price a suite when there are only a few sales a year.

4. Clarington: down 13.7%

Clarington, which includes Bowmanville, Courtice, Newcastle and Orono, saw its median condo apartment fall 13.7%, to $440,000 from $510,000. It is about 15.9% below $523,250 in 2024. Unlike most places on this list, sales went up: 100 condo apartments sold, 20.5% more than a year earlier. Suites took about 37 days to sell.

Rising sales with falling prices usually means buyers stepped in once prices came down. Clarington’s condo townhouses fell even more, by 15.3%, to $525,000.

5. Pickering: down 13.6%

Pickering’s median condo apartment fell 13.6%, to $470,000 from $544,250, and about 17.5% from $569,450 in 2024. Sales dropped sharply, by 28.7%, to 117 from 164. Suites still sold in about 33 days on average, up from 29.

Pickering is Durham’s busiest condo apartment market, with more sales than Ajax, Oshawa, Clarington or Whitby, so buyers there have more choice. Its condo townhouses fell only 6.5%, to $608,000.

How do these five compare with the rest of the GTA?

Source: TRREB MLS data via REALM, January–October 2026 vs the same period of 2025 and 2024. Medians cover each whole municipality, not individual buildings.

Just behind the top five were Markham (-13.2%), Newmarket (-12.8%), Brampton (-12.6%) and Milton (-12.0%). The smallest drops among the 15 were Burlington (-4.9%), Oakville (-6.0%) and Whitby (-6.2%). Mississauga, the GTA’s biggest condo market outside Toronto, fell 9.3% to $485,000.

Inside Toronto, some districts fell even further on smaller sample sizes, including C09 (-22.0%), W10 (-21.9%) and E08 (-17.0%). My guide to whether condo prices are going down in Toronto covers all 35 districts.

Why are GTA condo prices falling faster than house prices?

Look at the gap in each of the top five. In Pickering, detached prices fell 8.0% while condo apartments fell 13.6%. In Ajax it was 4.2% against 14.0%. In Aurora, detached prices dropped just 2.0%.

Part of the answer is supply. Urbanation’s third-quarter 2026 survey, as reported by CP24 and Canadian Mortgage Professional, found that new condo sales across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area were still 78% below their ten-year average for the quarter. Unsold, completed new suites stood at 5,127 units, 40% more than a year earlier. Investment groups bought units in bulk at an average of about 40% below the original selling prices in the same buildings.

In my view, that matters for resale owners even in Durham and York. When new suites in the region sell at deep discounts, buyers and appraisers notice, and resale prices feel the pull. Investors, who bought many of these suites, also face higher carrying costs now that rates are rising again.

Will GTA condo prices keep falling in 2027?

Nobody can say for sure. CREA forecast in October 2026 that national average prices would rise about 1.2% in 2027, but that came out before the Bank of Canada’s rate increase. The Bank said it expects housing to remain relatively weak, and its next decision is on 9 December 2026.

There is a longer-term counterweight. Urbanation also reported that construction starts are at historic lows and warned of a significant supply shortage by the end of the decade. That may support prices later, but it does not tell you what happens in 2027.

If you are an investor, check the rent rules before you buy. Ontario’s 2027 rent increase guideline is 1.9%, but units first occupied after 15 November 2018 are exempt. My guide to whether buying a condo is a good idea in 2027 walks through the math.

What to do next

1. Find your city in the table above and compare the 2026 median with what you paid or plan to pay.
2. Run the condo estimator above to see where your own suite sits against recent sales.
3. If you are buying, get a pre-approval that counts the condo fee and reflects the October 2026 rate increase.
4. Ask for the status certificate early and have your lawyer review the reserve fund and any planned special assessment.
5. Watch the Bank of Canada decision on 9 December 2026, which may affect what buyers can borrow in early 2027.

Frequently asked questions

Sources

• TRREB Market Watch, September 2026
• CP24: Bulk new condo purchases boosting sales in GTHA, but supply pipeline drying up (Urbanation Q3 2026)
• Canadian Mortgage Professional: Condo sales double in the GTHA as investors buy at 40% discounts
• Bank of Canada: Interest rate announcement, 28 October 2026
• Advisor.ca: CREA downgrades home sales forecast for the third time this year
• Government of Ontario: Residential rent increases
• Condominium Authority of Ontario: Status certificates
• Wikipedia: Clarington

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