Published 2 November 2026 · By Jatin Dua, Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty
Expect a busier spring 2027 than 2026, but not a frenzy. GTA listings were 10% lower in October 2026 than a year earlier and the market tightened all year, while higher rates hold buyers back. Average prices climbed about 8% to 14% from January to May in each of the last three years, and condo buyers should keep negotiating room.
This is for anyone planning to buy or sell in the GTA between March and June 2027. You will see what the last three spring markets actually did, what is different this time, the dates that will shape spring 2027, and how to prepare whether you are buying or selling.
What will the spring 2027 housing market look like in the GTA?
Expect a busier spring than 2026, but not a frenzy. The GTA heads into 2027 with fewer listings than a year ago, a market that has been slowly tightening all year, and prices already well below 2024. Against that, borrowing costs are higher than they were last spring, and the Bank of Canada has said it may raise rates again.
In practical terms, I expect more sales than spring 2026 and the usual rise in prices from winter to spring, with condo buyers still holding the upper hand and well-priced semis and freehold towns drawing competition. That is my view, not a forecast, and it depends heavily on what the Bank of Canada does between December and April.
What happened in the last three GTA spring markets?
Spring is the busiest season in the GTA every year. March, April and May together brought between 27% and 30% of each year’s sales in 2024 and 2025. Prices also follow a pattern: the average sale price climbs from January to May, then eases in summer and late fall.
| Spring | Sales, March to May | Average price, January | Average price, May | January to May change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21,247 | $1,028,699 | $1,167,807 | +13.5% |
| 2025 | 16,706 | $1,041,187 | $1,120,716 | +7.6% |
| 2026 | 17,452 | $968,468 | $1,069,716 | +10.5% |
Source: TRREB Market Watch monthly statistics (October 2025 report for 2024; October 2026 report for 2025 and 2026, as revised). All TRREB areas, all home types. January to May change is my arithmetic.
One caution: part of the January-to-May jump is about what sells, not just price. More detached houses sell in spring, and they cost more, which lifts the average. Even so, the pattern shows up every year. A seller who lists in May usually sees a higher average than one who sells in January, and a buyer in January usually pays less, with fewer homes to pick from.
Spring 2026 was a little busier than spring 2025, with about 4.5% more sales, but average prices were lower. TRREB’s May 2026 average was $1,069,716, down from $1,120,716 in May 2025.
How did spring 2026 compare with spring 2024 and 2025?
April is a good single month to compare, because it sits in the middle of the season. Here is what April looked like in each of the last three years.
| April, all TRREB areas | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 7,114 | 5,601 | 5,946 |
| New listings | 16,941 | 18,836 | 17,097 |
| Active listings at month end | 18,088 | 27,386 | 25,110 |
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio (12-month trend) | 43.8% | 36.0% | 34.6% |
| Months of inventory (12-month trend) | 2.6 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
| Average sale-to-list price | 102% | 99% | 98% |
| Average days on market | 19 | 25 | 29 |
Source: TRREB Market Watch, April 2024, April 2025 and April 2026, as first reported.
The trend is clear. In April 2024, homes sold above asking on average. By April 2026, buyers were paying 98% of list price and waiting nearly a month. Each spring since 2024 gave buyers more choice and more time.
What is different going into spring 2027?
Several things have changed since last spring, and they pull in different directions.
The market is tighter than last spring
TRREB’s 12-month sales-to-new-listings ratio was 37.9% in October 2026, up from 34.6% in April 2026. GTA active listings at the end of October 2026 were 25,098, down 10.0% from a year earlier, and new listings were down 11.9%. If that holds, spring 2027 buyers will have less to choose from than spring 2026 buyers did.
Borrowing costs are higher
Last spring the Bank of Canada’s policy rate was 2.25%. On 28 October 2026 it rose to 2.50%, and big-bank prime rose from 4.45% to 4.70%. The Bank said a further increase could be needed. Fixed rates follow bond yields, which also rose this fall. For a fuller explanation, see my post on what the October 2026 rate hike means.
Prices start from a lower base
The GTA average in October 2026 was $1,024,108, down 2.7% from a year earlier, and the benchmark was down 4.3%. TRREB said that while borrowing costs rose, lower prices helped keep monthly payments in check.
A new-home deadline lands in the middle of spring
Ontario’s enhanced HST rebate on new homes only applies to builder agreements signed on or before 31 March 2027, according to the CRA. That could pull some new-home buyers into the first quarter. My guide to the up to $130,000 new home HST rebate explains who qualifies.
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What do forecasters expect for 2027?
Nobody publishes a spring-only forecast, but the full-year outlooks point the same way: more sales, flat to slightly higher prices.
- CREA (16 October 2026): national sales up 4.4% in 2027 and the national average price up 1.2%. It assumes limited action by the Bank of Canada. Its next forecast is due in mid-January 2027.
- CMHC (22 July 2026): a baseline of 71,500 MLS sales in the Toronto area in 2027, up from 63,500 forecast for 2026, and an average price near $1,050,000. This was published before the October rate hike.
- Bank of Canada (28 October 2026): expects housing to stay relatively weak, with inflation averaging about 3% in 2027.
- TRREB (4 November 2026): its president said a Canada-U.S. trade deal and an end to the Middle East conflict could ease inflation worries and renew buyer interest heading into 2027.
Treat all of these as forecasts. Most were made when rates were lower than they are now.
What are the three ways spring 2027 could play out?
These are my own scenarios, not predictions. They are a way to plan for more than one outcome.
- A steady spring. The Bank holds rates after December or January. Sales rise above spring 2026, prices make their normal seasonal climb, and condo buyers keep negotiating room. This is the scenario I would plan around.
- A slow spring. The Bank raises rates again in December, January or March. Buyers wait, sales look more like spring 2025, and sellers who overprice sit for weeks.
- A quick spring. A trade deal and a pause in rate hikes lift confidence. Listings stay low, and semis, freehold towns and starter detached homes see multiple offers again in April and May.
In my view, spring 2027 will reward people who are ready early. The best-priced homes still sell first in a slower market, and the dates that matter, the Bank of Canada decisions on 27 January, 3 March and 28 April and the 31 March HST deadline, all fall before or during the peak. If you wait to see what spring looks like before you prepare, you will be preparing in May, when the season is already half over.
When should buyers and sellers get ready for spring 2027?
Start now. In 2026, monthly sales jumped from 3,833 in February to 4,992 in March, and new listings rose from 10,705 to 14,442. The season is in full swing by April and usually peaks in May or June.
- November to December 2026: decide your budget or target price, and talk to a lender.
- January 2027: get a pre-approval or a value estimate, and fix anything that will show badly in photos.
- February 2027: sellers finish repairs and staging; buyers narrow their areas and book viewings.
- March to May 2027: list or buy.
How should sellers prepare for spring 2027?
Price it right from the first day. In April 2026, GTA homes sold for 98% of list price on average after 29 days. Overpriced homes did much worse than that average. List in late February or March if your home suits families and you want to beat the May wave of new listings.
- Get a value estimate from recent sales on your street, not last year’s peak.
- If you have a mortgage renewing in 2027, check your options early. My post on mortgage renewal in 2027 covers the choices.
- If you are deciding between listing now and waiting, read sell in December or wait for spring 2027.
Spring brings more buyers, but it also brings more competition. In April 2026, GTA sellers added 17,097 new listings, almost 60% more than in February. If your home is ordinary and priced high, spring can leave it buried among similar listings. A sharp price and good photos matter more than the month.
How should buyers prepare for spring 2027?
Get your financing ready before February. A pre-approval may hold a rate for 60 to 130 days depending on the lender, so a January pre-approval can cover most of the season. Decide your top price before the first viewing, and know which segment you are in. Condo buyers can still negotiate hard. Semi and town buyers should be ready for competition.
For a city-by-city view of prices, see my Toronto housing market 2027 guide.
What to do next
- Mark the Bank of Canada dates: 9 December 2026, then 27 January, 3 March and 28 April 2027.
- Sellers: get a value estimate in January and plan to list between late February and April.
- Buyers: book a pre-approval in January with the longest rate hold your lender offers.
- If you are buying a new home, ask your lawyer whether you can sign before 31 March 2027 for the HST rebate.
- Check TRREB’s monthly Market Watch for January and February 2027 to see whether the tightening trend continues.
Need help with this? Talk to me.
I’m Jatin Dua, Broker of Record at RE/MAX Quantum Realty, and I’m the best agent to do this kind of work for you in Toronto and across the GTA. Over $100 million in GTA sales and 100+ families helped sell. Feel free to contact me any time: call or text 833-330-1925 or email [email protected].
Frequently asked questions
What will the spring 2027 housing market be like in Toronto?
Spring 2027 in Toronto and the GTA is likely to be busier than spring 2026 but well short of a boom. GTA listings in October 2026 were 10% lower than a year earlier and the market tightened all year. Higher rates, with the Bank of Canada at 2.50%, should keep competition in check, especially for condos.
Will house prices go up in spring 2027?
Average GTA prices usually rise from January to May, so some increase is likely. The January-to-May rise was 13.5% in 2024, 7.6% in 2025 and 10.5% in 2026, partly because more detached homes sell in spring. Whether spring 2027 prices beat spring 2026 depends mostly on interest rates.
When does the spring real estate market start in 2027?
The GTA spring market usually starts in March. In 2026, monthly sales jumped from 3,833 in February to 4,992 in March, and new listings rose from 10,705 to 14,442. Activity peaked in May and June. Buyers and sellers should be ready by February 2027.
Is spring 2027 a good time to buy a house in the GTA?
It can be, if you are prepared. Spring brings the most listings, but also the most buyers and the highest average prices of the year. In April 2026, GTA homes sold for 98% of list price after 29 days. Buyers who want the most negotiating room often do better in January or late fall.
Is spring 2027 a good time to sell a house in the GTA?
Yes, for most freehold homes. Spring has brought the year’s highest sales and average prices in the GTA in each of 2024, 2025 and 2026. But new listings also surge, so pricing matters. List between late February and April to reach buyers before the May peak in competing listings.
What are the housing market predictions for spring 2027?
No major forecaster publishes a spring-only forecast. For all of 2027, CREA expects national sales up 4.4% and prices up 1.2%, and CMHC’s baseline sees about 71,500 Toronto-area sales with an average near $1,050,000. Both came before or did not assume further Bank of Canada hikes.
How will interest rates affect the spring 2027 housing market?
Rates are the biggest swing factor. The Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.50% in October 2026 and said more hikes could be needed. Its decisions on 27 January, 3 March and 28 April 2027 fall right before and during the spring market, so each one can lift or cool GTA demand.
Should I wait until spring 2027 to buy a condo in Toronto?
There is little reason to wait for spring if you are a condo buyer. GTA condo apartments took 38 days to sell on average in October 2026 and had about 5.8 months of supply, so buyers have room now. Spring adds more listings, but also more buyers, and condo supply is already high.
Sources
- TRREB Market Watch, October 2026
- TRREB Market Watch, April 2026
- TRREB Market Watch, April 2025
- TRREB Market Watch, April 2024
- Bank of Canada 2027 schedule for rate announcements
- Bank of Canada raises policy rate to 2.5% (28 Oct 2026)
- CREA quarterly forecasts (October 2026)
- CMHC Summer Update 2026 Housing Market Outlook
Related reading
- GTA Housing Market Forecast 2027: City-by-City Numbers
- Mississauga Housing Market 2027: Prices, Sales and What to Expect
- Brampton Housing Market 2027: Prices, Sales and What to Expect
- Markham and Richmond Hill Housing Market 2027
About the author — Jatin Dua, Toronto and GTA real estate broker
I am Jatin Dua, Broker of Record and co-founder of RE/MAX Quantum Realty Inc., Brokerage, Unit 101, 799 The Queensway, Toronto. I work with buyers and sellers across Toronto and the GTA and have helped more than 100 families sell. Four-plus years of active GTA transactions and over $100 million in sales volume.
Reach me at [email protected] or 833-330-1925, or book a call.