Published 2 November 2026 · By Jatin Dua, Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty
Early 2027 should still favour GTA buyers. In October 2026, TRREB’s sales-to-new-listings ratio was 37.9%, below CREA’s balanced range of about 45% to 65%, and homes sold for 97% of list price. The ratio has risen all year, though, and semi-detached homes already sell above asking, so spring could feel balanced.
This is for GTA buyers and sellers who want to know who will have the upper hand in 2027. You will get the three numbers that define a buyer’s or seller’s market, where each GTA region and home type sits today, and the signals that would tip 2027 one way or the other.
Who will have the upper hand in the GTA in 2027?
Most signs point to 2027 starting as a buyer’s market that slowly drifts toward balance. As of October 2026, the GTA’s sales-to-new-listings ratio was 37.9%, below the range CREA treats as balanced, and homes sold on average for 97% of their list price. But that ratio has risen every month this year, which means the market is slowly tightening, not loosening.
So the honest answer is: buyers keep the edge going into 2027, especially for condos, but that edge is smaller than it was in early 2026. If sales pick up in spring, some segments, like semi-detached homes and freehold towns, could feel balanced or even competitive.
How do you tell a buyer’s market from a seller’s market?
Agents throw these words around, but there are real yardsticks. CREA, the national realtor association, uses two:
- Sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR). Sales divided by new listings. CREA says a national ratio between roughly 45% and 65% points to a balanced market. Below that favours buyers. Above that favours sellers.
- Months of inventory. How many months it would take to sell every home on the market at the current pace. CREA says below 3.6 months is a seller’s market and above 6.4 months is a buyer’s market.
Two more numbers tell you how it feels on the ground:
- Sale-to-list price ratio. Above 100% means homes sell over asking, usually with bidding wars. Below 100% means buyers are negotiating down.
- Days on market. The longer homes sit, the more power buyers have.
These ranges are national guides, not GTA rules, and TRREB calculates its ratio and inventory as 12-month moving averages. Still, they are the clearest way to compare one year with another.
Is the GTA a buyer’s market right now?
Yes, on most measures. The table compares October 2026 with October of the two previous years and with February 2022, the peak of the last frenzy.
| GTA (all TRREB areas) | Feb 2022 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2025 | Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio (12-month trend) | 72.2% | 40.3% | 34.1% | 37.9% |
| Months of inventory (12-month trend) | 0.9 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
| Average sale-to-list price | 116% | 99% | 98% | 97% |
| Average days on market (sold listings) | 9 | 27 | 31 | 31 |
| Sales in the month | 9,097 | 6,658 | 6,138 | 5,603 |
Source: TRREB Market Watch, February 2022, October 2024, October 2025 and October 2026, as first reported in each month’s report.
The sales-to-new-listings ratio is well below CREA’s balanced range, which says buyers. Months of inventory, at 4.6, sits inside CREA’s balanced band, which says the market is not as one-sided as the ratio suggests. Put together, the GTA is a mild buyer’s market, not a collapse.
The direction matters as much as the level. TRREB’s 12-month ratio was 33.3% in January 2026 and climbed every month to 37.9% by October. Months of inventory eased from 5.0 to 4.6 over the same period. That is a market slowly firming up from a low point. TRREB also reported that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, sales, new listings and prices all edged up from September to October 2026.
Which GTA home types favour buyers and which favour sellers?
The GTA is not one market. The gap between home types is wider than the gap between cities.
| Home type, October 2026 | Sales | Active listings | Months of supply (snapshot) | Sale-to-list | Avg days on market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | 2,693 | 11,721 | 4.4 | 97% | 29 |
| Semi-detached | 546 | 1,333 | 2.4 | 101% | 22 |
| Freehold townhouse | 508 | 1,734 | 3.4 | 99% | 28 |
| Condo townhouse | 425 | 1,951 | 4.6 | 97% | 38 |
| Condo apartment | 1,385 | 8,100 | 5.8 | 97% | 38 |
Source: TRREB Market Watch, October 2026, all TRREB areas. Months of supply is my own arithmetic (active listings divided by October sales), a one-month snapshot rather than TRREB’s 12-month trend.
Semi-detached homes are the tightest. They sold slightly over asking on average and had under 2.5 months of supply, which is seller’s territory by CREA’s yardstick. Freehold towns are close behind. Condo apartments are the clearest buyer’s market, with almost six months of supply and the longest selling times. Detached homes sit in the middle.
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Which parts of the GTA are tightest heading into 2027?
By region, Durham and the east side of Toronto are the firmest. York Region and Simcoe County have the most supply relative to sales.
- Durham Region: 40.6% ratio, 3.6 months of inventory, 98% sale-to-list.
- Toronto East districts: 41.7% ratio, 3.7 months, 101% sale-to-list, 26 days on market.
- Halton Region: 40.5% ratio, 4.2 months, 96% sale-to-list.
- City of Toronto overall: 38.6% ratio, 4.6 months, 98% sale-to-list.
- Peel Region: 35.9% ratio, 4.9 months, 97% sale-to-list.
- York Region: 36.2% ratio, 5.0 months, 97% sale-to-list.
- Toronto Central districts: 36.7% ratio, 5.1 months, 96% sale-to-list. This is where most of the city’s condos are.
All figures are TRREB’s October 2026 numbers, with the ratio and inventory as 12-month trends. A buyer looking at a semi in Toronto’s east end is in a very different market from a buyer looking at a condo downtown.
What would turn 2027 into a seller’s market?
For sellers to take back control, sales would need to rise faster than new listings for several months. These are the things that could do it:
- Clarity on the economy. TRREB’s president said in November 2026 that a Canada-U.S. trade deal and an end to the Middle East conflict could ease inflation worries and bring buyers back in 2027.
- A pause in rate hikes. CREA’s October 2026 forecast, which assumes limited Bank of Canada action, expects national sales to rise 4.4% in 2027.
- Fewer listings. GTA new listings in October 2026 were down 11.9% from a year earlier. If owners keep holding back, the buyers who return will have less to choose from.
- Pent-up demand. TRREB said economic worries kept many buyers on the sidelines in October 2026, and its CEO noted that the region’s permanent population will keep growing. Buyers who wait do not disappear.
What would keep 2027 a buyer’s market?
The main risk is borrowing costs. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50% on 28 October 2026 and said a further increase could be needed. It expects housing to stay relatively weak and inflation to average about 3% in 2027. More hikes would keep many buyers out.
Jobs matter too. Toronto’s unemployment rate was 6.9% in September 2026, according to the figures TRREB publishes in Market Watch. Buyers who worry about their jobs wait. And the condo segment has its own problem. Urbanation counted 5,127 completed new condos across the GTHA that builders had not sold as of the third quarter of 2026, on top of the resale listings already competing for the same buyers.
My cautious view is that early 2027 will still favour buyers, especially for condos and higher-priced detached homes, and that spring could feel balanced for well-priced semis, towns and starter detached homes. I do not expect a return to the bidding wars of 2022. The numbers would need to move a long way, from a 38% ratio to well above 60%, for that. If I am wrong, it will most likely be because rates stopped rising sooner than expected.
What should sellers do if 2027 stays a buyer’s market?
Price for the market you are in, not the one you remember. Homes that sell for 97% of list price on average are often homes that were priced right from day one. Homes that are overpriced sit, then get cut, and buyers notice the cuts.
- Use sold prices from the last three months, not active listings, to set your price. My guide on how to price your home to sell explains the method.
- Expect conditions. Financing and inspection conditions are normal again.
- If you are buying and selling at the same time, decide which comes first. See sell first or buy first.
A “buyer’s market” label is an average. In October 2026, semi-detached homes across the GTA sold for 101% of list price on average. If you are shopping for a semi or a well-priced freehold town, you can still run into competing offers. Do not assume every seller will take a lowball offer, and do not skip your financing condition because the market sounds soft.
What should buyers do before the market turns?
If the trend of the last ten months continues, buyers’ leverage will shrink a little each month. That does not mean rushing. It means being ready.
- Get a pre-approval with a rate hold so you can move when the right home comes up.
- Know your segment’s numbers. A condo buyer can negotiate harder than a semi buyer.
- Look at homes that have been listed for 30 days or more. Those sellers are often the most flexible.
- If a seller asks for offers on a set date, read my guide to bully offers and competing offers first.
For the full price outlook by city, see my GTA housing market forecast for 2027.
What to do next
- Find your segment in the home-type table above and note its sale-to-list ratio and days on market.
- Check your region’s numbers in TRREB’s latest Market Watch each month, since the trend is moving.
- Sellers: get a value estimate based on recent sold prices before you pick a list price.
- Buyers: get a pre-approval and decide your walk-away price before you start viewing.
- Watch the Bank of Canada decisions on 9 December 2026 and 27 January 2027, which will shape spring demand.
Need help with this? Talk to me.
I’m Jatin Dua, Broker of Record at RE/MAX Quantum Realty, and I’m the best agent to do this kind of work for you in Toronto and across the GTA. Over $100 million in GTA sales and 100+ families helped sell. Feel free to contact me any time: call or text 833-330-1925 or email [email protected].
Frequently asked questions
Will 2027 be a buyer’s market in Toronto?
Most likely, at least early in 2027. In October 2026, the City of Toronto’s sales-to-new-listings ratio was 38.6% and homes sold for 98% of list price on average, both buyer-leaning. Toronto’s central districts, where most condos are, had 5.1 months of inventory. The ratio has been rising through 2026, so conditions may move toward balance by spring.
Will 2027 be a seller’s market in the GTA?
A full seller’s market in 2027 is unlikely based on current data. The GTA ratio was 37.9% in October 2026, far below the 65% level CREA links to sellers’ markets, and homes sold for 97% of list price. Semi-detached homes are the exception, selling at 101% of list price with about 2.4 months of supply.
Is it a buyer’s or seller’s market in the GTA right now?
It is a mild buyer’s market as of October 2026. TRREB’s GTA sales-to-new-listings ratio was 37.9%, below CREA’s balanced range of roughly 45% to 65%, while months of inventory was 4.6, inside CREA’s balanced band. Homes sold for 97% of list price on average after 31 days on market.
What is a balanced market in real estate in Canada?
CREA describes a balanced market as a sales-to-new-listings ratio between roughly 45% and 65%, or between 3.6 and 6.4 months of inventory. Below those ranges favours buyers or sellers respectively. These are national guides. In the GTA in October 2026, the ratio was 37.9% and inventory was 4.6 months.
What does sales-to-new-listings ratio mean?
It is home sales divided by new listings over the same period. A low ratio means many homes are coming up for sale compared with how many sell, which favours buyers. TRREB publishes it as a 12-month moving average. The GTA figure rose from 33.3% in January 2026 to 37.9% in October 2026.
Which GTA home type is most competitive in 2026?
Semi-detached homes. In October 2026, GTA semis sold for 101% of list price on average after 22 days, with about 2.4 months of supply by my calculation from TRREB data. Freehold townhouses were next at 99% of list price. Condo apartments were the least competitive, at 97% and 38 days.
Will the Toronto condo market be a buyer’s market in 2027?
Probably yes. In October 2026, GTA condo apartments had about 5.8 months of supply by my calculation, the highest of any home type, and took 38 days to sell on average. Toronto’s central districts had 5.1 months of inventory. Builders also still hold thousands of completed, unsold units, which keeps supply high into 2027.
How long does it take to sell a house in the GTA in 2026?
About a month on average. In October 2026, sold GTA listings took 31 days on average, according to TRREB. Detached homes took 29 days, semis 22 days and condo apartments 38 days. In February 2022, at the height of the last boom, the average was 9 days.
What could make GTA house prices go up in 2027?
A pause in rate hikes, a Canada-U.S. trade deal and fewer new listings are the main triggers. TRREB’s president said in November 2026 that economic clarity could renew buyer interest in 2027. CREA forecasts national prices up 1.2% in 2027. Neither is a guarantee, and further Bank of Canada increases would work the other way.
Sources
- TRREB Market Watch, October 2026
- TRREB Market Watch, October 2024
- TRREB Market Watch, February 2022
- TRREB Market Watch, January 2026
- CREA: Canadian home sales pull back in September (16 Oct 2026)
- CREA quarterly forecasts (October 2026)
- Bank of Canada raises policy rate to 2.5% (28 Oct 2026)
- Urbanation: GTHA new condo sales double from a year ago in Q3
Related reading
- GTA Housing Market Forecast 2027: City-by-City Numbers
- Mississauga Housing Market 2027: Prices, Sales and What to Expect
- Brampton Housing Market 2027: Prices, Sales and What to Expect
- Markham and Richmond Hill Housing Market 2027
About the author — Jatin Dua, Toronto and GTA real estate broker
I am Jatin Dua, Broker of Record and co-founder of RE/MAX Quantum Realty Inc., Brokerage, Unit 101, 799 The Queensway, Toronto. I work with buyers and sellers across Toronto and the GTA and have helped more than 100 families sell. Four-plus years of active GTA transactions and over $100 million in sales volume.
Reach me at [email protected] or 833-330-1925, or book a call.