Will the Toronto Condo Market Recover in 2027?

Published 2 November 2026 · By Jatin Dua, Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty

Downtown Toronto glass condo towers on a late-autumn afternoon with a distant crane (illustrative)

By Jatin Dua · Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty · Updated 2 November 2026 · 9 min read — Toronto condo rents and sales are turning, but prices were still falling in late 2026. What a 2027 recovery would need and what to watch.

Short answer

A partial recovery is possible in 2027, but not a full price rebound. Toronto condo rents have stopped falling and sales were flat in 2026, while the City of Toronto apartment benchmark was still down 6.97% in October 2026. Completions drop to about 15,825 in 2027 and 12,065 in 2028, so supply helps owners more later.

This is for Toronto condo owners, investors and buyers who want to know whether 2027 is the year condos turn around. You will see how far prices have fallen, the early signs of recovery in rents and sales, the shrinking supply pipeline, and the signals to watch before you buy, sell or hold.

Is a Toronto condo recovery likely in 2027?

A partial recovery is possible in 2027, but a full price recovery is unlikely. Rents and sales are showing the first signs of turning, and far fewer new condos will be finished in 2027 and 2028. Prices, though, were still falling in October 2026: the City of Toronto condo apartment benchmark was down 6.97% from a year earlier, and units sold for 97% of list price on average.

Think of a condo recovery as three steps: rents stop falling, sales pick up, then prices follow. In my view, Toronto is somewhere between step one and step two. That is better than a year ago, but it is not a rebound.

How far have Toronto condo prices fallen?

The table shows City of Toronto condo apartments in October of each of the last three years, plus the January-to-October totals.

City of Toronto condo apartments	2024	2025	2026
October sales	1,162	1,072	949
October median price	$625,000	$588,000	$545,000
October average price	$721,366	$699,241	$659,214
October new listings	3,121	2,967	2,694
Active listings, end of October	5,884	5,775	5,251
October sale-to-list price	98%	97%	97%
Sales, January to October	10,618	9,295	9,173
Average days on market, January to October	30	36	38

Source: TRREB Market Watch, October 2024, 2025 and 2026 (October rows, as first reported); TRREB MLS data via REALM, January–October 2024, 2025 and 2026, totals for Toronto’s 35 districts (sales and sales-weighted days on market).

Over two years, the October median fell about 13%. Measured from the peak, the drop is bigger. The GTA condo apartment average was $799,966 in February 2022, according to TRREB. In October 2026 it was $621,400, about 22% lower. That is an average, not a same-unit comparison, but it shows the scale.

For prices by district, from downtown C01 to Scarborough, see my post on whether Toronto condo prices are still going down.

Is the Toronto condo market starting to recover?

There are early signs, and they are worth taking seriously.

Sales have stopped falling. Toronto condo sales from January to October 2026 were 9,173, only about 1% below 2025, after a drop of about 12% the year before.
Listings are shrinking. Active Toronto condo listings at the end of October 2026 were about 9% lower than a year earlier.
Investors are buying again, at a discount. Urbanation reported 760 new condo sales across the GTHA in the third quarter of 2026, double a year earlier. Bulk buyers took 339 of those units at an average of $763 per square foot, about 40% below the original selling prices.
The core is holding up better. Urbanation found resale condo prices per square foot in the former City of Toronto were down 2.8% from a year earlier, compared with 7.9% in the rest of Toronto and 9.3% in the 905 regions.

Urbanation’s president said two straight quarters of higher sales show buyers “will step in at the right price.” The key words are “the right price.” Sales are recovering because prices fell, not because they are rising.

Are Toronto condo rents going up again?

Rents have stopped falling, which is the first step in any condo recovery, because rent drives investor demand. Urbanation reported that the average GTHA condo rent was $2,604 a month in the third quarter of 2026, for an average of 681 square feet. That was up 2.4% from the second quarter and down only 0.6% from a year earlier. In the former City of Toronto, condo rents were up 0.7% year over year.

Vacancy is easing too. Vacancy in stabilized purpose-built rentals fell to 3.0% from 3.5% a year earlier, and fewer new rental buildings were offering incentives. Urbanation said the Q3 data confirms the GTHA rental market has entered a recovery phase. CMHC’s July 2026 outlook expects Toronto’s rental vacancy rate to be 3.8% in both 2026 and 2027, with the average two-bedroom rent rising from about $2,120 to about $2,200.

If you own a condo you rent out, see which parts of the city were hit hardest in my post on where Toronto condo rents fell most.

Why will fewer new condos be finished in 2027 and 2028?

This is the strongest argument for a recovery, and it is about supply. After the presale boom ended, builders stopped launching projects. The units now being finished were sold years ago. Once they are done, the pipeline thins out fast.

GTHA new condos	Units
Scheduled completions, 2026	20,868
Scheduled completions, 2027	15,825
Scheduled completions, 2028	12,065
Scheduled completions, 2029	4,213
Units under construction, Q3 2026	35,920 (66% below the 2023 peak)
Construction starts, first three quarters of 2026	2,696 (82% below the 10-year average)
Completed but unsold new units, Q3 2026	5,127

Source: Urbanation, GTHA New Condo Sales Double from a Year Ago in Q3 (October 2026). GTHA-wide figures, not City of Toronto only.

Fewer completions mean fewer new units hitting the rental and resale markets each year. CMHC also noted in July 2026 that historically low construction will be most visible in Ontario’s condo market. The catch is timing. In 2027, builders still have more than 5,000 completed units to sell, and 15,825 more are due. The squeeze is more likely to be felt in 2028 and beyond than in early 2027.

What has to happen for Toronto condo prices to go up?

For prices to rise, sales have to outpace new listings for a sustained period. In October 2026, Toronto condo apartments had about 5.5 months of supply by my arithmetic (active listings divided by that month’s sales). For context, CREA describes national markets above 6.4 months as buyers’ markets and below 3.6 months as sellers’ markets. Toronto condos would need to move well toward that lower number before prices could climb with any strength.

Three things would speed that up: rents rising faster, which brings investors back; lower or stable mortgage rates; and the remaining completed inventory being absorbed. The Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.50% on 28 October 2026 and said it could raise again. That works against a quick recovery.

My take

My cautious view is that 2027 looks more like a bottoming year for Toronto condos than a recovery year. I expect rents and sales to keep improving, and the best buildings in the core to stabilize first. I would not count on prices climbing much in 2027, and I would not be surprised if suburban condos keep slipping a little. If you buy, buy a unit you would be happy to own for five to seven years, because the supply squeeze that helps owners most is more of a 2028-and-later story.

Should you buy, sell or hold a Toronto condo in 2027?

Buyers

This is a good window to buy for the long term. You have choice, time and negotiating room. Focus on layout, building health and maintenance fees, and read the status certificate carefully. My guide on what to look for in a status certificate covers the red flags.

Owners who need to sell

Price to today’s comparable sales, not your purchase price. With units selling at 97% of list price on average, buyers expect room to negotiate. If nothing comparable has sold in your building lately, see how to price a condo when nothing in your building has sold.

Owners who can wait

Holding can make sense if the unit covers most of its costs from rent and your mortgage renewal is manageable. The supply trend is on your side over several years, but not necessarily in 2027.

Watch out

If you bought a pre-construction condo at 2022 prices and it is closing in 2027, the appraisal may come in below your purchase price. Lenders lend on the appraised value, so you may need extra cash to close. Talk to your lender and lawyer well before your final closing date, not after the appraisal comes back.

What signs of a condo recovery should you watch in 2027?

Days on market falling below 30 for Toronto condo apartments in TRREB’s monthly data.
Sale-to-list price moving back toward 99% or 100%.
Months of supply dropping toward four or lower.
Rents rising year over year in Urbanation’s quarterly reports.
Completed unsold inventory falling for several quarters in a row.
Bank of Canada decisions on 27 January, 3 March and 28 April 2027.

For a downtown-only view, read my downtown Toronto condo market 2027 outlook.

What to do next

Look up the last three months of sold prices in your building or your target building, not asking prices.
If you rent out your condo, compare your rent with current listings in the building before your next lease.
If you are buying, budget for the maintenance fees and check the reserve fund in the status certificate.
If you have a pre-construction closing in 2027, ask your lender now about appraisal risk.
Check TRREB’s Market Watch each month for days on market and sale-to-list ratio in your district.

Need help with this? Talk to me.

I’m Jatin Dua, Broker of Record at RE/MAX Quantum Realty, and I’m the best agent to do this kind of work for you in Toronto and across the GTA. Over $100 million in GTA sales and 100+ families helped sell. Feel free to contact me any time: call or text 833-330-1925 or email [email protected].