Published 2 November 2026 · By Jatin Dua, Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty
The 2027 market starts with higher rates and flatter prices than 2026. The Bank of Canada raised its rate to 2.50% in October 2026 after GTA prices fell again, with the October average down 2.7%. For 2027, CMHC expects a Toronto average near $1,050,000, the rent guideline drops to 1.9%, and Ontario’s new-home rebate covers deals signed by 31 March 2027.
This post is for GTA and Ontario buyers, sellers, owners and renters deciding whether to act now or wait for 2027. It lines up what 2026 actually looked like against what is already known about 2027: rates, prices, rules, rebates and rents, as of 10 November 2026.
What changed between the 2026 and 2027 housing markets?
The short version: 2026 was the year prices kept sliding and rates turned upward. 2027 starts with slightly higher borrowing costs, prices that forecasters expect to stabilize, and several rule changes with fixed dates.
| Item | 2026 | 2027 (what is known on 10 Nov 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of Canada policy rate | 2.25% most of the year, raised to 2.50% on 28 October | Eight decisions scheduled, the first on 27 January; no path is set |
| Big-bank prime rate | 4.45%, then 4.70% from 29 October | Moves with each Bank of Canada decision |
| GTA average price (TRREB) | $1,024,108 in October, down 2.7% year over year | CMHC baseline for Toronto: about $1,050,000 for the year |
| Ontario rent increase guideline | 2.1% | 1.9% |
| Federal ban on foreign buyers | In force until 1 January 2027 | Budget 2026 proposes extending it to 1 January 2029 for existing homes and exempting new homes; not law yet |
| Ontario enhanced new housing rebate | Available for agreements signed from 1 April 2026 | Available for agreements signed up to 31 March 2027 |
| Cooling-off period for new freehold homes | Not in force | Still not in force; start date moved to 1 January 2028 |
Sources: Bank of Canada; TRREB Market Watch October 2026; CMHC Summer 2026 Housing Market Outlook (baseline, data to 23 June 2026); Government of Ontario; Budget 2026; Canada Revenue Agency Notice 346; Tarion.
How did GTA prices and sales change in 2026?
Prices fell for a second straight year, and condos fell the most. TRREB reported 52,694 sales in the first ten months of 2026 with a median price of $870,000. In October alone, sales were down 7.9% from a year earlier, new listings were down 11.9%, and the composite benchmark price was down 4.3%.
| Municipality | Detached median 2025 | Detached median 2026 | Change | Condo apt median 2025 | Condo apt median 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississauga | $1,300,000 | $1,225,000 | -5.8% | $535,000 | $485,000 | -9.3% |
| Brampton | $1,042,750 | $950,000 | -8.9% | $475,000 | $415,000 | -12.6% |
| Vaughan | $1,490,000 | $1,415,000 | -5.0% | $595,000 | $530,000 | -10.9% |
| Markham | $1,518,000 | $1,420,000 | -6.5% | $643,000 | $558,000 | -13.2% |
| Oakville | $1,675,000 | $1,625,000 | -3.0% | $562,000 | $528,000 | -6.0% |
| Oshawa | $800,000 | $730,000 | -8.8% | $397,500 | $340,500 | -14.3% |
| Toronto C01 (downtown) | n/a (few sales) | n/a | n/a | $642,650 | $600,000 | -6.6% |
Source: TRREB MLS data via REALM, median sold prices for January to October 2025 and January to October 2026, municipality or TRREB district level.
The good news for buyers is choice and room to negotiate. In October 2026 homes across the TRREB area sold for an average of 97% of list price, with 4.6 months of inventory. For a deeper city-by-city view, see my GTA housing market forecast for 2027.
How are interest rates different going into 2027?
Most of 2026 felt like a pause: the policy rate sat at 2.25% for nearly a year after a long series of cuts. Then on 28 October 2026 the Bank of Canada raised it to 2.50%, its first hike in more than three years, to keep high energy prices from spreading into wider inflation. Inflation was 3.1% in September, and the Bank expected it to reach about 3.5% by the end of 2026 before easing to about 2% by mid-2028.
That means 2027 begins with the opposite question from 2026. Last year people asked how far rates would fall. Now they ask whether there will be more hikes. Governor Macklem said a further increase could be needed and that decisions will be made one meeting at a time. The next decision is 9 December 2026, then 27 January, 3 March, 28 April and 2 June 2027, with more later in the year.
Fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields rather than the policy rate, and they rose through September and October 2026. Anyone renewing or buying in 2027 should plan on today’s rates or higher, not lower.
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What housing rules and programs change in 2027?
Foreign buyer ban
The federal ban on non-Canadians buying residential property currently runs to 1 January 2027. Budget 2026 proposes extending it for two years, to 1 January 2029, for existing homes, while exempting new residential properties. The government said it would propose legislation and start a regulatory process soon, but that had not been published when this was written. Provincial and Toronto taxes on non-resident buyers are separate from the federal ban. Read my notes on foreign buyer rules in Toronto and confirm with a lawyer before signing anything.
New home rebates
Ontario’s enhanced new housing rebate covers agreements signed from 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2027. CRA’s Notice 346 describes a full rebate of the 8% provincial part of the HST up to $80,000 on homes up to $1 million, with a reduced rebate up to $1.85 million. Combined with Ontario’s payment toward the federal part, total relief can reach $130,000. That deadline makes the first quarter of 2027 a key window for new-home buyers. Details are in my post on the $130,000 Ontario HST rebate, and first-time buyers should also read about the first-time buyers’ GST rebate.
Cooling-off period for new freehold homes
Tarion says the province moved the start of the 10-day cooling-off period for new freehold homes, along with new information sheet and addenda rules, to 1 January 2028. It will not apply in 2027. See my explainer on the new-home cooling-off period.
Mortgage rules that stay the same
As of November 2026, no change has been announced to the $1.5 million maximum price for an insured mortgage, and first-time buyers and buyers of newly built homes can still get a 30-year amortization on an insured mortgage.
What do forecasters expect for 2027?
- CMHC (baseline, data to 23 June 2026): Toronto-area average price of about $1,020,000 in 2026 rising to about $1,050,000 in 2027, with MLS sales rising from 63,500 to 71,500. Its alternative, weaker scenario puts 2027 at about $1,030,000.
- TD Economics (September 2026): Ontario prices down 2.6% in 2026 and up 0.6% in 2027, with sales up 7.4%. TD assumed no rate hikes through 2027.
Both forecasts came before the October hike, so treat them as a best case. The common thread is more sales and roughly flat prices, not a boom and not a crash.
Is it better to buy a house in 2026 or 2027?
It depends more on your situation than on the calendar. Here is how the two windows compare:
- Buying in late 2026 or early 2027: fewer buyers, more room to negotiate, and sellers who list in winter can be more motivated. The trade-off is higher rates than earlier in 2026 and fewer listings to choose from.
- Buying in spring 2027: more listings, but forecasters expect more buyers to return too, which can bring back competition for well-priced freehold homes.
- Buying new: if you qualify for the Ontario rebate, an agreement signed by 31 March 2027 matters.
Is it better to sell in 2026 or 2027?
If you must sell soon, there is no clear reward for waiting. Forecasts call for flat prices in 2027, and spring brings more competing listings as well as more buyers. If your timing is flexible and your home is a semi, a freehold town or a well-kept detached in a tight area, spring 2027 is a reasonable target. Condo owners face the toughest choice: more completions and softer rents could keep pressure on prices.
One more 2027 factor for sellers who are also buying: if you plan to buy a new home and qualify for the Ontario rebate, the 31 March 2027 deadline may set your timeline. Selling first gives you a firm budget; buying first may require bridge financing. Plan both sides together.
What should renters and landlords expect in 2027?
For sitting tenants in units covered by rent control, the 2027 guideline is 1.9%, down from 2.1% in 2026. Units first occupied for residential purposes after 15 November 2018 are exempt. For the details and notice rules, see my 2027 rent increase guideline post.
CMHC expects Toronto’s vacancy rate to rise from 3.0% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and stay there in 2027, as new purpose-built rentals open. Its survey average for a two-bedroom unit in the Toronto area, which includes long-term tenants, was $2,046 in 2025, with a forecast of about $2,200 in 2027. CMHC notes that rents are still high relative to income, especially when a unit turns over to a new tenant.
Several 2027 dates are proposals or forecasts, not rules. The foreign buyer extension is only proposed, rate decisions are made meeting by meeting, and every price forecast here was made before the October 2026 hike. Do not sign a purchase that only works if rates fall or if a proposed rule passes.
In my view, the difference between 2026 and 2027 is mostly about rates and deadlines, not prices. Prices have already reset, and forecasters expect them to stay flat. If you are buying, the winter months may offer the best negotiating room, and new-home buyers should watch the 31 March 2027 rebate deadline. If you are selling, price to the latest comparable sales instead of waiting for a rebound that may not come in 2027.
What to do next
- Write down your own deadlines: lease end, renewal date, job change or school year.
- If buying, get a pre-approval now and ask your lender how it would change with a 0.25-point hike.
- If buying new, confirm rebate eligibility with your lawyer before 31 March 2027.
- If selling, pull the last three months of sales for your home type and set the price from those.
- Use the estimator on this page to see where your home’s value sits today.
Need help with this? Talk to me.
I’m Jatin Dua, Broker of Record at RE/MAX Quantum Realty, and I’m the best agent to do this kind of work for you in Toronto and across the GTA. Over $100 million in GTA sales and 100+ families helped sell. Feel free to contact me any time: call or text 833-330-1925 or email [email protected].
Frequently asked questions
Should I buy a house now or wait until 2027?
For most GTA buyers the timing matters less than their finances. Late 2026 and early 2027 offer fewer competing buyers and room to negotiate, while spring 2027 brings more listings but likely more buyers. Forecasters expect roughly flat prices in 2027, so waiting is unlikely to bring big savings, and rates may rise further.
Will house prices go down in 2027 in Ontario?
Most forecasts show Ontario prices roughly flat in 2027. TD Economics expects a 0.6% rise in Ontario prices after a 2.6% fall in 2026, and CMHC’s baseline has the Toronto-area average rising to about $1,050,000. Both forecasts were made before the Bank of Canada raised rates in October 2026, so they may be optimistic.
What are the 2027 real estate predictions for Canada?
Forecasters expect more sales and small price gains in Canada in 2027. CMHC expects prices to grow only modestly after declining through 2026, with Ontario and British Columbia the weakest. TD expects national price growth below 2%. Most predictions assume the Bank of Canada does not raise rates much further in 2027.
Will interest rates go up in 2027 in Canada?
They might. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50% on 28 October 2026 and said a further increase could be needed, with decisions made one meeting at a time. Its first 2027 decision is on 27 January. Fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields, which rose in fall 2026.
What is the Ontario rent increase guideline for 2027?
The Ontario rent increase guideline for 2027 is 1.9%, down from 2.1% in 2026. It applies to increases taking effect from 1 January to 31 December 2027 for most rent-controlled units. Units first occupied for residential purposes after 15 November 2018 are exempt, and landlords must give at least 90 days’ written notice.
Is the foreign buyer ban ending in 2027?
The current ban expires on 1 January 2027, but Budget 2026 proposes extending it to 1 January 2029 for existing homes while exempting new residential properties. As of November 2026 that extension was a proposal, not law, and provincial taxes on non-resident buyers are separate, so foreign buyers should get legal advice before signing.
When does the Ontario HST rebate on new homes end?
Ontario’s enhanced new housing rebate applies to agreements signed from 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2027, according to CRA Notice 346. It can cover the full 8% Ontario part of the HST up to $80,000 on homes up to $1 million, with partial relief up to $1.85 million. Confirm eligibility with your lawyer before signing.
Will rents go down in Toronto in 2027?
Rents are expected to ease rather than fall sharply. CMHC forecasts Toronto’s vacancy rate at 3.8% in 2026 and 2027, up from 3.0% in 2025, as more purpose-built rentals open. Its survey average for a two-bedroom, which includes long-term tenants, is forecast at about $2,200 in 2027. Asking rents for vacant units can differ a lot.
Does the new home cooling-off period start in 2027?
No. Tarion says Ontario moved the start of the 10-day cooling-off period for buyers of new freehold homes, and the new information sheet and addenda requirements, to 1 January 2028. In 2027, buyers of new freehold homes still have no statutory cooling-off period, so have a lawyer review the agreement before signing.
Sources
- TRREB Market Watch, October 2026
- Bank of Canada: 2027 schedule for policy interest rate announcements
- Budget 2026, Chapter 3
- Government of Ontario: Residential rent increases
- Tarion: Update on new information sheets, addenda and cooling-off period requirements
- Canada Revenue Agency Notice 346: Ontario enhanced new housing rebate
- CMHC: Summer Update, 2026 Housing Market Outlook
- TD Economics: Provincial Resale Market Outlook, September 2026
Related reading
- GTA Housing Market Forecast 2027: City-by-City Numbers
- Mississauga Housing Market 2027: Prices, Sales and What to Expect
- Brampton Housing Market 2027: Prices, Sales and What to Expect
- Markham and Richmond Hill Housing Market 2027
About the author — Jatin Dua, Toronto and GTA real estate broker
I am Jatin Dua, Broker of Record and co-founder of RE/MAX Quantum Realty Inc., Brokerage, Unit 101, 799 The Queensway, Toronto. I work with buyers and sellers across Toronto and the GTA and have helped more than 100 families sell. Four-plus years of active GTA transactions and over $100 million in sales volume.
Reach me at [email protected] or 833-330-1925, or book a call.