Should I Buy a House Now or Wait Until 2027? GTA Answer

Published 2 November 2026 · By Jatin Dua, Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty

What's Your Home Worth Right Now?

Get a free AI-powered price range for your property in under 90 seconds, based on recent GTA comparable sales. No name or address required.

Get My Free Estimate →

Quiet GTA suburban street of brick detached homes in late autumn with a for-sale sign (illustrative)

By Jatin Dua · Broker of Record, RE/MAX Quantum Realty · Updated 2 November 2026 · 10 min read — GTA prices are 8% to 23% below 2024, but rates are rising. Here is the math on buying now versus waiting until 2027.

Short answer

Buy now if your job is stable, your down payment is ready and you will stay five years. GTA medians are 8% to 23% below 2024 and homes sell near 97% of list price. Waiting only helps if prices fall faster than rates rise: a half-point rate increase cancels about a 5% price drop.

This is for GTA renters and first-time buyers who keep asking one question: buy now, or hold off until 2027? You will get the real price drop since 2024, what a rate change does to your payment, what waiting costs in rent, and a simple way to decide for your own situation.

Is it smarter to buy a house now or wait for 2027?

If your job is stable, your down payment is ready and you plan to stay at least five years, buying in late 2026 or early 2027 is a reasonable move. Prices are lower than in 2024, buyers have more homes to choose from, and sellers are taking less than their asking price. Waiting only pays off if prices fall further than rates rise, and nobody can promise that.

Here is where the market sits. In October 2026, GTA home sales were 5,603, down 7.9% from a year earlier. The average price was $1,024,108, down 2.7%, and the MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark was down 4.3%. The median price was $860,000. TRREB said buyers had real negotiating power on price over the past year, and that lower prices have softened the effect of higher borrowing costs on monthly payments.

The catch is rates. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50% on 28 October 2026, its first increase in more than three years, and said it could need to raise again. So the question is not just “will prices drop?” It is “will my monthly payment be lower if I wait?”

How much have GTA home prices already fallen since 2024?

A lot of the drop has already happened. Across the GTA, median sold prices for January to October 2026 are well below the same months of 2024. Condo apartments fell the most. Homes are also taking longer to sell, which gives buyers time to compare and negotiate.

Area	Detached median 2024	Detached median 2026	Change	Condo apt median 2024	Condo apt median 2026	Change
Mississauga	$1,371,085	$1,225,000	-10.7%	$583,000	$485,000	-16.8%
Brampton	$1,127,250	$950,000	-15.7%	$540,000	$415,000	-23.1%
Vaughan	$1,590,000	$1,415,000	-11.0%	$635,000	$530,000	-16.5%
Markham	$1,650,000	$1,420,000	-13.9%	$700,000	$558,000	-20.3%
Oakville	$1,763,000	$1,625,000	-7.8%	$620,000	$528,000	-14.8%
Pickering	$1,190,000	$1,039,999	-12.6%	$569,450	$470,000	-17.5%
Toronto C01 (downtown)	n/a	n/a	n/a	$680,000	$600,000	-11.8%

Source: TRREB MLS data via REALM, January–October 2026 vs the same period of 2024 (median sold price, year to date). City and district level only. C01 detached sales are too few to compare.

Two points matter for your decision. First, the 2026 median for each home type in these cities is already 8% to 23% below its 2024 level. Second, the drop has slowed. On a seasonally adjusted basis, TRREB reported that both the benchmark and the average price edged up from September to October 2026. That is one month, not a trend, but it tells you the easy discounts may be behind us.

For the full city-by-city picture and the forecasts, see my GTA housing market forecast for 2027.

What does waiting until 2027 really cost you?

Waiting is not free. If you rent while you wait, every month costs you rent. Urbanation reported that the average GTHA condo rent was $2,604 a month in the third quarter of 2026, for an average unit of 681 square feet. At that level, six months of waiting costs about $15,600 in rent, and a full year costs about $31,200.

To be fair, owning is not free either. In the first year of a $688,000 mortgage at 4.5% over 25 years, about $30,400 goes to interest, by my own arithmetic. Add property tax, insurance and upkeep, and an owner’s “lost” money can be close to a renter’s. Neither is wasted. Both are the cost of a roof.

The real costs of waiting are these:

Rate risk. If rates rise again, the same home costs more each month, and you may qualify for less.
Price risk. If sales pick up in spring 2027, today’s room to negotiate can shrink.
Deadline risk. Ontario’s enhanced HST rebate on new homes only covers agreements signed on or before 31 March 2027.

The real benefits of waiting are also real: more time to save, another year of First Home Savings Account (FHSA) room, and the chance that prices dip further. The FHSA lets you contribute up to $8,000 a year, to a lifetime limit of $40,000, so a buyer who opened one can add more in January 2027. My guide on the FHSA versus the Home Buyers’ Plan explains how to stack them.

Free tool — what can you actually afford?

How do interest rates change the buy-now-or-wait math?

This is the part most people miss. A small change in your mortgage rate can wipe out a price drop. The table below uses a home at the October 2026 GTA median price of $860,000, 20% down and a 25-year amortization. The rates are illustrations, not quotes.

Scenario	Price	Mortgage	Payment at 4.0%	Payment at 4.5%	Payment at 5.0%
Prices fall 5%	$817,000	$653,600	$3,438	$3,617	$3,801
Prices flat	$860,000	$688,000	$3,619	$3,808	$4,001
Prices rise 5%	$903,000	$722,400	$3,800	$3,998	$4,202

Source: my calculation using standard Canadian mortgage maths (semi-annual compounding), 20% down, 25-year amortization. Starting price is the October 2026 GTA median from TRREB Market Watch. Not a rate quote.

Read it this way. If you wait and prices fall 5%, but your rate goes from 4.5% to 5.0%, your payment is about the same: $3,801 instead of $3,808. By my arithmetic, a half-point rise in your rate cancels out roughly a 5% drop in price. A full point rise cancels out much more.

Rates also change what you qualify for. Federally regulated lenders must test you at the higher of 5.25% or your contract rate plus 2 points. If your rate rises from 4.5% to 5.0%, your qualifying rate goes from 6.5% to 7.0%, and the bank’s maximum loan shrinks. My post on the mortgage stress test walks through it.

Who should buy now, in late 2026 or early 2027?

Buying sooner tends to make sense if most of these are true for you:

Your income is steady and you are not worried about your job in 2027.
You have your down payment and closing costs saved, plus a cushion.
You plan to stay at least five years, long enough to ride out a soft patch.
You have found a home that fits, at a price that works with today’s rate.
You are buying a new home and want the enhanced HST rebate before the 31 March 2027 cut-off.

Detached buyers in particular should not wait for a crash that the numbers do not show. Detached sales across the GTA held near 2025 levels this year, while condo apartments carried most of the weakness.

My take

In my view, the best time to buy is when your own life is ready, not when a headline says the bottom is in. Nobody rings a bell at the bottom. What I tell my clients is simple: buy the home you can carry at a rate one point higher than today, negotiate hard because the data says you can, and stop trying to time the last 2%. If that home is not on the market yet, waiting is fine. But wait for the right home, not for a forecast.

Who should wait until later in 2027?

Waiting is the better call if any of these apply:

Your job, income or relationship may change in the next year.
Your down payment is thin and another year of saving would get you to 20%, so you avoid mortgage insurance.
You might move again within two or three years. Buying and selling costs, such as land transfer tax and legal fees, can eat any gain.
You are an investor buying a condo to rent out and the numbers do not cash flow at today’s rents.

If you do wait, use the time well. Save, open or top up an FHSA, fix your credit, and learn your target area so you can move fast when the right home appears. My guide to renting or buying in the GTA in 2027 runs the full comparison.

What dates in early 2027 could change your decision?

A few fixed dates are worth putting in your calendar. They will not tell you where prices go, but they will tell you where rates and incentives stand.

9 December 2026: the next Bank of Canada rate decision.
1 January 2027: new FHSA contribution room for people who already have an account.
27 January 2027: Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report.
3 March 2027: Bank of Canada decision.
31 March 2027: last day to sign a builder agreement that qualifies for Ontario’s enhanced new-home HST rebate.
28 April 2027: Bank of Canada decision and Monetary Policy Report.

Forecasters are cautious. CREA’s October 2026 forecast expects national sales to rise 4.4% in 2027 and the national average price to rise 1.2%, assuming limited Bank of Canada action. CMHC’s baseline, published in July 2026 before the hike, has the Toronto-area average near $1,050,000 in 2027. Both are forecasts, not promises.

Watch out

A pre-approval is not a mortgage approval. The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada says a pre-approval may hold a rate for 60 to 130 days depending on the lender, but the lender can still refuse you. If you plan to buy in spring 2027, time your pre-approval so the rate hold covers your search, and do not firm up an offer until your financing is confirmed in writing.

How do I buy now without overpaying?

The data gives buyers leverage, so use it. In October 2026, GTA homes sold on average for 97% of their final list price, and sold listings took an average of 31 days. Condo apartments took 38 days. When homes sit, sellers are more open to a lower price, a longer closing or conditions.

Keep your conditions. In this market, many sellers accept offers with financing and inspection conditions.
Check days on market. A home that has been listed for weeks, or relisted, often has more room on price.
Compare recent sales, not asking prices. Ask for sold prices on the street or in the building from the last three to six months.
Lock your rate first. Get a pre-approval with a rate hold before you start viewing. My post on what a pre-approval guarantees covers the fine print.

What to do next

Work out the payment you can carry at a rate one point above today’s offer, not the maximum the bank will lend.
Get a pre-approval with a rate hold of at least 90 days if your lender offers it.
Pull median prices and days on market for your city and home type from the table above, not the GTA average.
If you are looking at new homes, confirm with your lawyer whether you can sign before 31 March 2027 to get the enhanced HST rebate.
Set a short list of must-haves, and be ready to act when the right home appears instead of waiting for a perfect month.

Need help with this? Talk to me.

I’m Jatin Dua, Broker of Record at RE/MAX Quantum Realty, and I’m the best agent to do this kind of work for you in Toronto and across the GTA. Over $100 million in GTA sales and 100+ families helped sell. Feel free to contact me any time: call or text 833-330-1925 or email [email protected].

Book a free call Call 833-330-1925

Frequently asked questions

Should I buy a house now or wait until 2027?

Buy now if your job is steady, your down payment is ready and you will stay five years or more. GTA prices in 2026 are 8% to 23% below 2024 in most cities, and buyers can negotiate. Wait if your income may change or your savings are thin. Waiting only helps if prices fall faster than mortgage rates rise in 2027.

Will house prices drop more in 2027 in the GTA?

Nobody knows, and forecasters expect roughly flat prices. CREA’s October 2026 forecast sees the national average price up 1.2% in 2027, and CMHC’s baseline has the Toronto-area average near $1,050,000. TRREB reported that seasonally adjusted prices edged up from September to October 2026. Any further drop is a possibility, not a forecast.

Is it better to buy a house in 2026 or 2027?

Neither year is clearly better in the GTA. Late 2026 offers lower prices and less competition, while 2027 may bring more sales and possibly higher rates. In 2026, GTA homes sold for about 97% of list price on average. If rates rise half a point in 2027, a 5% price drop barely lowers your monthly payment.

How much does a 0.5% rate increase cost on a GTA home?

On a $688,000 mortgage over 25 years, going from 4.5% to 5.0% adds about $193 a month, by my calculation. That is roughly the same saving you would get if the home’s price fell 5%. In the GTA in 2026, that means a rate rise can cancel out a price drop for buyers who wait.

Should first-time buyers wait until 2027 to buy in Ontario?

Only if waiting improves your finances. A first-time buyer who adds a year of FHSA savings, up to $8,000, or reaches a 20% down payment may be better off waiting. One who is ready, with stable income and a pre-approval, can buy in late 2026 or early 2027 and negotiate in a slower GTA market.

Is the GTA a buyer’s market right now?

Yes, it leans toward buyers as of October 2026. TRREB’s sales-to-new-listings ratio was 37.9%, below the 45% to 65% range CREA calls balanced, and GTA homes sold for about 97% of list price on average. Condo apartments favour buyers most. Semi-detached homes are tighter, selling near asking.

When is the deadline for the Ontario new home HST rebate?

The deadline is 31 March 2027. Ontario’s enhanced new housing rebate applies to agreements with a builder signed from 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2027, according to the CRA. It covers up to $80,000 of the provincial HST, and Ontario’s separate New Home Affordability Payment covers up to $50,000 of the federal part. Confirm eligibility with your lawyer.

What happens to my pre-approval if rates go up?

If your lender gave you a rate hold, you keep the held rate until it expires. The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada says holds run 60 to 130 days depending on the lender. If rates fall, many lenders give you the lower rate. A pre-approval is not a final approval, so your lender can still decline the actual mortgage.

What Bank of Canada dates matter for buying a house in early 2027?

The key dates are 9 December 2026, then 27 January, 3 March and 28 April 2027. The January and April dates also bring a Monetary Policy Report. The Bank raised its rate to 2.50% in October 2026 and said another increase could be needed, so these decisions affect variable rates and buyer confidence.

Should I Buy a House Now or Wait Until 2027? A GTA Answer