New condo sales in the GTA fell to just 246 units in Q1 2026 — a 35-year low, down 52% year-over-year and 94% below the 10-year average — with zero new pre-construction projects launched in the quarter. A large share of the pressure behind that is coming from investor-owners: CIBC Economics and Urbanation found that 77% of Toronto investors holding a mortgage on a newly completed condo were cash-flow negative in 2023, averaging about $597 out of pocket per month, and CIBC’s mid-2024 update raised that to 81% for units completed in the first half of 2024. Those are the most recent figures published; nothing more current has been released.
That doesn’t mean every condo owner should sell. It means more owners — especially investors carrying a unit that isn’t cash-flowing — are actively deciding whether to hold or list right now, and if you’re one of them, it’s worth understanding the numbers behind that decision before you make it.
The numbers behind the shift
New condo sales across the GTA fell to just 246 units in the first quarter of 2026 — a 35-year low, down 52% from the same quarter a year earlier and roughly 94% below the 10-year average for the quarter. No new pre-construction projects launched anywhere in the GTA during that period. Resale condo prices per square foot have fallen about 25% from their early-2022 peak to roughly $859, while newly built standing inventory is still pricing around $1,189 per square foot — a 38% premium that’s making it harder for developers to move completed unsold units. The average condo price across the GTA sat at $620,479 in March 2026, down 9.0% year-over-year.
What is your home actually worth today?
I will give you a real number based on comparable sales on your street — not an automated estimate. No obligation, and I will tell you plainly if now is the wrong time to sell.
Get my home valuation Call or text 437-987-1925
Jatin Dua, Sales Representative — RE/MAX Quantum Realty Inc., Brokerage. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with another brokerage.
Why investors specifically are the ones listing
A lot of the supply increase is coming from existing owners and investors choosing to list rather than hold, and the reason shows up clearly in the cash-flow math. CIBC Economics and Urbanation put 77% of Toronto investors holding a mortgage on a newly completed condo in negative monthly cash flow in 2023, averaging roughly $597 out of pocket every month once mortgage, fees and taxes are accounted for — and 81% for units completed in the first half of 2024 (CIBC Economics, July 2024). Those remain the latest published figures; the 2026 picture has not been measured, though rates and rents have moved since. Separately, roughly 3,000 units — about 10% of condos that registered in 2025 — were reclaimed by developers after original purchasers couldn’t close, often because the unit no longer appraised at the price they’d agreed to pay years earlier.
None of this means every investor-owned unit is in distress. It means the math that made sense when rates and prices were different has, for a meaningful share of owners, stopped working — and that’s exactly the group most likely to be actively weighing a sale right now, whether or not they’ve listed yet.
Signs it might be time to sell rather than hold
| Signal | What it usually means |
|---|---|
| Unit has run negative cash flow for 12+ months with no clear turnaround | Holding is actively costing you money every month, not just on paper |
| Mortgage renewal is coming up at a materially higher rate | The monthly gap is likely to widen, not close, at renewal |
| You bought pre-construction 5+ years ago and it no longer fits your goals | A common natural exit point — construction, occupancy and early ownership years are behind you |
| Maintenance fees or a special assessment have risen sharply | Carrying cost has increased independent of the mortgage |
| The unit has sat vacant or hard-to-rent for several months | Rental demand in the building or unit type may have softened |
What rising inventory actually changes for sellers
More competing listings means pricing accuracy matters more than it did two years ago, not less. In a market with this much standing supply, an overpriced unit doesn’t just sell slowly — it sits next to newer, better-priced listings and becomes the comparable buyers use to justify a lower offer elsewhere. Getting a data-grounded starting number, rather than an anchor price based on what you paid or what a neighbour’s unit sold for years ago, is the first real decision point.
Getting your starting number right
Before deciding whether to hold or list, most owners want a fast, no-pressure sense of where their unit actually sits today. A condo value estimate gives you a free range in under 90 seconds, weighing floor, exposure, view, parking and locker against recent comparables in your specific building — no name or address required to get started. It’s a starting point, not a listing price, but it’s the right first step before running the full cash-flow math on whether to hold or sell.
Weighing whether to hold or sell an investment condo?
Send me the building and your situation and I’ll walk you through the actual numbers — current market value, what holding another year likely costs you, and what selling now would net you after fees.
connect@jatindua.com · 437-987-1925 · Book a free consultation
Confidential. Reviewed personally and answered within 24 hours. I never share, sell or distribute your information.
Frequently asked questions
Is now a bad time to sell my Etobicoke condo?
It depends entirely on your own numbers, not the headline statistics. Rising GTA-wide inventory means more competition among sellers, which makes accurate pricing more important, but plenty of well-priced condos in good buildings are still selling. The market data is a backdrop for your decision, not a verdict on your specific unit.
Why are so many condos for sale in Toronto right now?
A combination of a sharp slowdown in new pre-construction sales, elevated recently completed supply, and investor-owners facing negative cash flow on units bought when rates and prices were different. Roughly 77% of Toronto investors with new condo mortgages are estimated to be losing money monthly on a cash-flow basis, which is pushing more of them to list.
Should I sell my investment condo at a loss?
That’s a personal financial decision that depends on your mortgage renewal timing, how long you can absorb negative cash flow, and what you’d do with the proceeds. It’s worth running the actual numbers — current value, carrying costs if you hold another year, and net proceeds if you sell — rather than deciding based on market headlines alone.
How do I know what my specific condo is worth in this market?
Building-wide and city-wide averages only tell you so much — floor, exposure, view, parking, locker and your building’s own recent sales move the number more than broad market trends do. A condo-specific estimator that weighs those factors, followed by a conversation about your actual building, gives a far more useful answer than a citywide average.
Sources
- Standing Condo Inventory Hits Record High in Q1 — Urbanation, Q1 2026. Primary source for the 246 new condominium sales in the GTHA, the 52% annual decline, and the 94% gap to the Q1 ten-year average of 4,046 sales.
- Over 4 In 5 Greater Toronto Leveraged Condo Investors Are Losing Money — Better Dwelling, 26 July 2024, reporting CIBC Economics analysis of Urbanation data. Source for the investor cash-flow figures: 77% cash-flow negative in 2023 at an average of $597 per month, rising to 81% for units completed in the first half of 2024.
- Toronto Condos Just Hit a 35-Year Sales Low — The Maple Metric. Secondary commentary; source for the resale and standing-inventory price per square foot, the average condo price, and the reclaimed-unit figures. Accessed 25 August 2026.
- Why GTA Condo Inventory Is Rising and What It Means for Buyers in 2026 — Home and Condos. Secondary commentary. Accessed 25 August 2026.
Correction, 29 August 2026: this post originally described the 77% investor cash-flow figure as recent analysis without a year. It is a 2023 figure from CIBC Economics and Urbanation; CIBC’s mid-2024 update put the equivalent number at 81%. The dates have been added and the headline sales figures repointed to Urbanation, which produced them, rather than to the outlets that reported them.
What is your home actually worth today?
I will give you a real number based on comparable sales on your street — not an automated estimate. No obligation, and I will tell you plainly if now is the wrong time to sell.
Get my home valuation Call or text 437-987-1925
Jatin Dua, Sales Representative — RE/MAX Quantum Realty Inc., Brokerage. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with another brokerage.
Related reading
- Condo vs Freehold in the GTA: How They Differ When It’s Time to Sell
- AI Home Valuation vs a Realtor CMA vs a Bank Appraisal
- Condo Value Estimator
- Does an Etobicoke Investment Condo Actually Cash Flow in 2026? The Honest Math
- Rental Cash Flow Calculator — is your unit making or losing money monthly?
- Home Sale Net Proceeds Calculator
- All free calculators & tools
About the author — Jatin Dua, Etobicoke real estate agent
I’m a licensed Realtor with RE/MAX Quantum Realty at 799 The Queensway in Etobicoke. I work with buyers, sellers and investors across Mimico, Humber Bay Shores, New Toronto, Long Branch, Alderwood and the Stonegate–Queensway corridor, and across the wider GTA — both condo and freehold.
Questions about your specific property? connect@jatindua.com or 437-987-1925.